Is The Lisa Dream Over?

Dec 13, 2012 by

Is The Lisa Dream Over?

Finally, yesterday, the SCD website confirmed what Lisa backers had been fearing: there will be a dance-off in this weekend’s semi-final. But all is not lost…

Given the scoreboard ordering regularly seen in operation on SCD, it is safe to assume Lisa will finish last on the leaderboard over the 2 dances – not necessarily the disaster it may look as being bottom should be a further incentive for her fans to vote, and we already know, courtesy of the Star vote leak, that Lisa has consistently been polling the highest among this year’s women.

One of the key elements in Lisa’s survival prospects is where Louis places on the leaderboard. The ideal for Lisa would be if Kimberley and Dani place below Louis and in that precise order as we are pretty confident Dani is regularly beating Kimberley on the public vote.

The other part of the Lisa potential survival puzzle is just how big Denise’s bounce will be. We know, again courtesy of the Star, that Kimberley’s bottom 2 bounce was huge, enabling her to even top the public vote the following week ahead of Louis.

It could be on the cards for Louis and Denise to be top and second top on the public vote on Saturday – we expect a Denise pimp slot, enormous praise, probably top spot on the leaderboard, and encouragement from Len for the public to vote for her. If this is the case and Lisa is bottom of the leaderboard, then Lisa will likely need Kimberley to be third and Dani fourth in that precise order to escape the dance-off.

Denise – 5 (leaderboard) + 4 (pv) = 9
Louis – 4 + 5 = 9
Kimberley – 3 + 1 = 4
Dani – 2 + 2 = 4
Lisa – 1 + 3 = 4

Result: Kimberley/Dani dance-off due to Lisa beating both of them on the pv.

If Lisa can somehow get up to second place on the public vote, her survival prospects grow larger. Even if Kimberley is in second place on the leaderboard, Lisa could avoid the bottom 2 as long as Dani is no higher than third place.

Denise – 5 + 3 = 8
Kimberley – 4 + 1 = 5
Dani – 3 + 2 = 5
Louis – 2 + 5 = 7
Lisa – 1 + 4 = 5

Result: Kimberley/Dani dance-off due to Lisa beating both of them on the pv.

What Lisa doesn’t want is either Kimberley or Dani being top of the leaderboard, or joint top of the leaderboard. This appears unlikely as we must assume Denise is going to be teed up to regain the top spot to ensure her safe passage to the final.

The semi-final dances are as follows:

Dani – AS, AT
Louis – foxtrot, jive
Lisa – AS, salsa
Denise – rumba, tango
Kimberley – AS, Charleston

In Lisa’s favour is that she has a potentially crowd-pleasing salsa she can really ‘sell’ and Robin might have the chance to impressively lift Lisa into the air as part of their American smooth routine. Straw clutching? Possibly. Regardless of ‘fun’ elements, the judges will still likely ensure she is bottom of the leaderboard.

All the other couples look to have at least one potential ’10’ scoring dance: Dani’s AT, Kimberley’s Charleston, Louis’s foxtrot and Denise’s rumba and tango. Louis’s jive also looked ropey in his early training VT and we know second bottom on the leaderboard for Louis is not really what Lisa needs.

The only way Dani looks like being dragged into the dance-off against Lisa, is if Kimberley finishes no lower than 2nd top on the leaderboard, and Dani ends up finishing 4th. TPTB may be aware of this, and given the consistent over-scoring of Kimberley, this sort of leaderboard scenario may even be their goal, to try and ensure Kimberley’s safe passage to the final too.

Given all of the above, we reckon Louis and Denise are both heading to the final, and the Lisa/Kimberley bottom 2 combo at 2-1 with Ladbrokes looks the wisest play, with a saver on the Kimberley/Dani bottom 2 combo at 10-1 with Ladbrokes. We would also recommend backing Kimberley to be in the bottom 2 at 11-8 with BetVictor.

As a cover you might want to consider backing the Lisa/Dani bottom 2 combo, also at 2-1 with Ladbrokes, as you can still lock in a reasonable profit backing at 2-1, 2-1 and 10-1, and scaling stakes accordingly.

In a dance-off versus either Dani or Kimberley we must assume Lisa will be eliminated assuming her dance-off opponent doesn’t have a complete meltdown. If Lisa does escape the bottom 2, a Dani/Kimberley dance-off will be decided by fractions and probably who holds their nerve best and executes the cleanest routine. Len is generally fair and he will likely have to call it.

Given he came out this week and said Dani’s ‘fusion’ was easier to execute than Kimberley’s, and Kimberley received a 10 from him whereas Dani only received a 9, it looks advantage Kimberley. But given Kimberley has already been in the bottom 2 and this would be Dani’s first appearance, maybe it’s more like deuce.

If Dani gets the chance to reprise the AT with Vincent then that could mean advantage Dani, but in such a scenario maybe they would insist both couples reprise their American smooth routines to make it more of an even contest. It would certainly make for an intriguing dance-off.

We would also advise 5-4 Denise to be the top scorer over the 2 dances, also with Ladbrokes. As a cover for Top Female bets on Lisa, it is also advisable to back Lisa for next elimination at a best price of 9-10 with Boylesports.

In terms of the Outright, Louis is starting to have the look of a good thing, and the widely-available 8-11 appears to be a value price. We had reservations about him at series-start but if Lisa is eliminated this weekend it is difficult to see any of the other female contestants being able to topple him on the public vote in the final.

Three women joining him there will see the female vote split, we know from the Star that Louis has been consistently topping the public vote, and the BBC Strictly website confirmed yesterday the final will be decided, as in previous years, by public vote only.

How do you rate Lisa’s survival prospects or do you consider her an elimination banker? If it ends up a Dani vs Kimberley dance-off, who is more likely to be saved? Let us know your thoughts below, and we will update there if any value emerges when other firms price up the semi-final markets.
Rob Furber

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28 Comments

  1. Heisenberg

    Dance and songs for semis, just posted on BBC:

    http://goo.gl/PDuCu

  2. Rob

    Thanks Heisenberg 🙂

    List of dances & songs:

    Kimberley & Pasha – American Smooth to ‘Fever’ and the Charleston to the theme song of ‘Magnificent Men in their Flying Machines’

    Denise & James – The Tango to ‘Roxanne’ and the Rumba to ‘The First Time Ever I Saw Your Face’

    Louis & Flavia – The Foxtrot to ‘Somebody I Used To Know’ and the Jive to ‘Why Don’t Fools Fall In Love’

    Lisa & Robin – The American Smooth to ‘All That Jazz’ and the Salsa to ‘Best Years of Our Lives’

    Dani & Vincent – The American Smooth to ‘I Just Haven’t Met You Yet’ and the Argentine Tango to ‘Libertango’

  3. Boki

    Rob, just following your logic, a clean way for TPTB putting Dani/Lisa to bot2 is the following scoreboard.

    Kim 5+1=6
    Denise 4+3=7
    Louis 3+5=8
    Dani 2+2=4
    Lisa 1+4=5

    So, counting on a Denise bounce they can ensure all females were in bot2 once and get rid of Lisa.
    That would mean no Kim bot2 bet for me, also danger of Denise top scorer (maybe saver on Kim).

  4. Rob

    Yes, they might have that in mind, Boki. One thing we can almost bank on is that Kimberley will not be given the pimp slot because she got it last week. Dani has only had one pimp slot – week 5 so maybe she is ‘due’.

    The other thing that makes Kimberley appear slightly more likely to end up in the bottom 2 compared to Dani is the belief Dani is outpolling her but that is no more than a hunch.

  5. Ryan P

    My feeling is that IF Denise bounces it won’t be up to 3rd, rather I think it will be a small bounce from last to 4th – I think she is that unpopular. Personally I like her, but the middle-aged female voters really don’t, and they are what counts. Also the problem for Denise is James – until Pamela Stephenson James was eliminated year after year with excellent women. A lot of people feel he comes across as arrogant. His pre-dance off speech about them ‘training more than anyone else and that’s a fact’, reeked of sour grapes and has done Denise absolutely no favours. Even if she is top scorer, a bottom 2 appearance would not surprise me one bit sadly.

  6. Rob

    That looks a shrewd suggestion as a cover, Boki – a back of Kimberley for top score.

  7. Rob

    You are right, Ryan – those comments James made didn’t come across well. He has generally been much better in recent years, compared to what he was like maybe 4 or 5 years ago.

    Can understand his frustration given Denise’s harsh going over by the media ever since Evans’ comments.

    The key thing with the bounce on SCD is that the judges invariably push for it, ie, by really pimping the bottom 2 casualty from the week before.

    They did it with Kimberley who is arguably as unpopular as Denise, and she managed to top the pv the following week.

  8. Guildo Horn Forever

    “We know, again courtesy of the Star, that Kimberley’s bottom 2 bounce was huge, enabling her to even top the public vote the following week ahead of Louis.”

    Deja vu, anyone?
    Huge, sky-rocketing, beyond-all-reason bounces?

    How about this scenario:

    1) This Saturday’s bottom two features initial hot-favourite, the judge’s idea of best dancer, and the actual best dancer, Denise – plus one of Kimberly or Dani. Two dancers genuinely, technically good enough to just about be chosen to be saved over Denise Van Outen.

    2) The SCD PTB would prefer for this year to be won by a woman.

    3) After much panel angst, Kimberly or Dani is saved over Denise (who the judges know cannot now win the series).

    4) Much panel horror and tragedy at sending (best contestant) Denise home.

    5) A Week 7, James Arthur, mother-of-all-bounces for the survivor leapfrogs that dancer way over Louis and all the way to the throne.

    Not again 🙁

  9. Guildo Horn Forever

    Actually, so long as Dani is saved from a bottom two combo, and bounces like a kangaroo on a trampoline – now that I can cope with 🙂

  10. Rob

    Hi Guildo. Certainly whoever survives the bottom 2 dance-off tomorrow night should enjoy a decent bounce come the final.

    Pretty confident Denise will bounce comfortably clear of the bottom 2 tomorrow night.

    A reminder of the Star story that tells us it is Dani & Lisa who have been consistently polling best among this year’s women, while Louis has been leading the way:

    STRICTLY Come Dancing star Denise van Outen is facing ballroom heartbreak as we reveal she is the least popular act.

    The West End star has been wowing the judges with her moves – but she is a flop with viewers.

    Last weekend she received fewer public votes than any of the other dancers.

    Denise, 38, has received 4% of the total votes and is averaging less than 7%.

    In contrast, Olympic gymnast Louis Smith, 23, who is the most popular act with viewers, has ­received as much as 30% of the votes and averages almost 24%.

    The complex scoring system ­involves a leaderboard being ­constructed each week in which viewers’ votes are added to ­judges’ scores.

    The two lowest-scoring acts overall go into the Sunday dance-off.

    As long as ex-Big Breakfast host Denise and partner James ­Jordan, 34, keep topping the judges’ votes they will avoid the bottom two.

    But should she make the final, in which only viewers’ votes count, she faces finishing last.

    A show source said: “Denise is the latest in a long line of bookies’ favourites who perform well on screen but just aren’t connecting with the public.

    “Maybe they resent her West End experience and have got ­behind some of the underdogs ­instead.

    “In an Olympic year you would expect Louis to do well but ­viewers may be surprised he is topping the vote most weeks.

    “If he keeps it up, the winner’s glitterball is as good as his.”

    It is the top-secret combined ­leaderboard, normally seen only by senior producers, which will decide who makes the final the weekend before Christmas. ­According to sources, Louis and Flavia Cacace, 33, have topped this chart every week except two – the first week when Denise won and week seven, when it was Girls Aloud singer Kimberley Walsh, 31.

    Also doing well are Tracy Beaker star Dani Harmer, 23, and ex-Emmerdale actress Lisa Riley, 36.

    But Denise’s totals slipped to sixth overall last weekend.

    The source added: “It’s all to play for to see who makes the ­final.”

  11. Heisenberg

    I know for a fact that tour participation can influence favour on these shows (a mate of mine was on Dancing On Ice a few years ago and claims he was stitched up big time because he wasn’t committed to the tour).

    As we’re so close to the final do you think it’s worth considering who’s signed up for the Strictly Tour:

    http://goo.gl/6LlHe

    Surely it would be in their interest to have as many finalists as possible participating to get maximum promotion value.

    Say what you want about Lisa, but I reckon she is probably the biggest crowd puller for the tour and wouldn’t they rather have her in the final for this reason? Also consider her involvement with Craig’s own tour:

    http://goo.gl/Mgepa

    …and his favouritism of the big lass:

    http://goo.gl/KQcMy

    There is a nagging thought that I can’t seem to shake off – why give Kimberley the 4 tens last week? Either she desperately needed the leaderboard points to last one more week, or as I am starting to suspect, it was the show’s way of giving her a nice send-off knowing that she was polling quite low and not involved in the tour but rather on tour with Girls Aloud and all the preparation/promotion that goes with it.

    I also refer back to the Rachel Stevens precedent a couple of years ago: she was bottom 2 in week 8 after finishing 2nd on the leaderboard, then after 4 tens in week 10, she promptly fell back to the bottom 2 again in week 11 (although was saved by the judges).

    I don’t think it’s unreasonable to suggest that the show is now ready to lose Kimberley and may attempt to engineer a dance-off that does not include Lisa but rather Kim vs. Dani or Denise in which case they could justify her exit and have a final featuring all 4 celebrities going on the tour. A dance-off loss to Dani would be fair because it would be Kim’s 2nd and only Dani’s 1st – a loss to Denise would be fine because they will have had 2 dance-offs each.

    Out of all remaining celebrities I also think Kimberley and Denise are the most similar and a showcase final should be about variety in order to bring in the most viewers.

    11/2 is currently available for Kimberley to be next eliminated and I’m going to take a small chunk.

  12. Boki

    Hate this Kim ramping since she’s my only big red both on outright and top female. Hope you are right and Dani still polls better. Dani/Lisa bot2 would be nice I guess to give Dani a push next week. Also, am I right to presume that Lisa’s votes are more likely to go to Dani than to other women?

  13. Rob

    Glad of your follow up post above, Boki – took the 4-1 Kimberley to be top scorer as a cover… you will never see a bigger fix.

    They seem to be pushing Kimberley very hard but do not think the public will play ball. Reckon Louis & Lisa most likely top 2 on the pv tonight, & assuming Louis gets through, struggle to see how he can lose the final with the female vote split.

    Tonight, Dani looks a near cert for dance-off but give Lisa a sporting chance to escape – pimp slot, mention of her being the people’s vote, her 1st routine, the salsa, being such a stand-out… she has a lot going for her.

    It’s another good shout, Boki, that if Dani is b2 tonight, she should get a little boost for the final, & Lisa’s fans would more likely migrate to her than the other 2 mor glamorous women.

  14. Boki

    Not much of a bounce for Denise, she must have been bottom on pv. Likely also 1st out next week. Anyway, good night for me with both Lisa elim and Kim top score landed (dutched her with Denise).

  15. Ryan P

    I said I didn’t feel Denise would bounce much at all! Dani was always unlikely for bottom 2 given that she is polling more than Denise or Kimberley. Final result will surely be Denise, Kim, Dani, Louis winning.

  16. Rob

    Well done guys – some very wise calls. Thought Denise was capable of definitely not being bottom of the pv, but the big push for Kimberley again probably saw to it that she was.

    Dani looked extremely vulnerable – performing 1st on the night & others stealing her limelight & receiving higher scores, so she has done well to avoid b2.

    The manipulated scoreboard was transparent – giving Kimberley a 40 for a cumbersome Charleston so she was top by 1pt. Have to ask why they are pushing her so hard – can only think they know Denise has no chance so they’ve switched to her. She has been over-scored for a series of weeks now.

    Trying to work out how the pv went last night. Maybe:

    Kimberley – 5+2 = 7
    Denise – 4+1 = 5
    Dani – 3+3 = 6
    Louis – 2+5 = 7
    Lisa – 1+4 = 5

    Alternative:

    Kimberley – 5+4 = 9
    Denise – 4+1 = 5
    Dani – 3+2 = 5
    Louis – 2+5 = 7
    Lisa – 1+3 = 4

    It’s whether viewers are buying into the big Kimberley ramp. But to keep on pushing her suggests, maybe, that her pv has been increasing week on week, & she has more chance than Dani of toppling Louis if they want a female winner.

  17. Roach

    Let’s not underestimate how malleable the GBP are. The mother-in-law texted last night “Kimberley to win” having not mentioned her for 10 weeks…

  18. Rob

    Very true Roach, & disconcerting given my book. Reduced exposure when Kimberley was a double figure price but something of a Jahmene atm should she win.

    Still expect Louis to have too much being only male, polling at the top according to Star leak, & able to go to town with his showdance. May be some frantic re-positioning next Saturday.

    Would also expect Lisa’s fans to migrate more towards Dani than Lisa but like XF this has been another fiendishly difficult series to trade yourself into a powerful position heading towards the final.

  19. Boki

    I can only hope your 1st calculation is right rather than 2nd so that Dani can outpoll Kim since I’m also stuck in the top female market (which is heavily on Kim’s side now).

  20. Rob

    Let’s hope so, Boki. Find it hard to imagine Kimberley polling that well but the public can sometimes be easily swayed by what they are being told.

    In Olympic year, hard to see them trying to deny Louis victory – would almost be a fitting climax now for him to win.

    Still think Dani has a very good chance to finish 2nd. Slight concern is, whether they will even announce 2nd place when it is down to the final 3 – they may just announce the winner in which case dead-heat rules are likely to apply (as the Beeb never release voting figures for SCD).

  21. Boki

    Well, I have no feeling yet how influential are the judges in SCD (historically speaking). Also didn’t anticipate they might only announce the winner – have a lot to learn I guess.

  22. Rob

    It is a different final this year, Boki, with 4 couples & it is mere speculation they may not announce 3rd place, based only on the info they have released on the BBC Strictly website which leaves room for doubt. Here is what it says:

    The Grand Final

    The Grand Final of Strictly Come Dancing 2012 will be on Saturday 22nd December. The remaining couples will all dance again but this time the judges’ scores will be for reference only. The eliminations and the ultimate winner of Strictly Come Dancing 2012 will be decided purely by the public vote.

    Phone lines will open after all couples have danced for the first time. Lines will then be frozen at a time announced on the programme. The couple with the fewest votes at this point will be eliminated at the start of the Results show (on that same day).

    In the very unlikely event of two couples being tied at the bottom of the phone vote, Head Judge Len Goodman will have the casting vote so that one couple will still be eliminated. The phone lines will then be reopened but all the votes already cast for the remaining couples will still count and will be carried over. The remaining couples will dance once more for your votes in the Results show before the lines are closed and the winner announced.

  23. Tim B

    I’ve layed off my stake on Louis as I’m very concerned about the momentum that Kimberley seems to have going into the final. Denise is my other green but it would be a miracle if she wins given her two consecutive bottom 2 appearances. I think I might lay Dani, but only if she reaches the final 3 stage as her odds are not at all attractive. This might change during the show, however, if she’s pimped to high heavens but I think we know now it’s Kimberley who they’ll be ramping. Hoping Louis can pull it off on the night but not convinced he will do it. Rob, would you recommend me laying off Denise at the (terrible) odds, or would you just leave it and accept it as money lost?

  24. Tim B

    Actually, I’ve just realised that Dani looks like a good back-to-lay at the current odds, so that’s what I’ll do regarding her. Assuming she beats Denise to make the top 3, it’s not inconceivable that she might make the final two stage, either, if that’s the format the show decides to take on the night.

  25. Heisenberg

    Hi Rob/Tim B,

    Your recent comment has got my attention, thanks.

    I’m trying to isolate the best play for my situation.

    I had a James Arthur/Dani Harmer £10 win double at 442/1. If Dani wins I net over 4K – I could lay her right now at odds of around 16 but like you Tim I think these odds have a good chance of improving between now and showtime and especially in-play if she’s no lower than 4th.

    Given that Denise is likely to finish in 4th position (not guaranteed, but likely) – do you think I’d find better value covering my potential profit in other markets such as straight forecast/top woman etc.

    Your views would be gratefully received.

    Regards,
    Heisenberg

  26. Rob

    Interesting dilemmas, guys – thanks for posting.

    Tim, I definitely wouldn’t lay off Denise at current odds. There is a chance she will escape 4th place, & if she does her odds will contract. She has 2 potential gems in the jive and Charleston. She’s not received a 40 yet & would expect her to land 40s on Sat & this, combined with some sympathy over her 2 recent bottom 2 appearances, along with judges like Len waxing lyrical over how great she is, could see enough of a bounce for her this time.

    There can be some wild fluctuations on SCD final night – certainly the case when it was Pam vs Kara vs Matt, & there is plenty of uncertainty surrounding this year’s final.

    Heisenberg – would recommend considering backing Dani to finish 4th. We need to see which dances Dani has, & which dances Kimberley has before committing to anything yet.

    Guess 2nd or 3rd for Dani still isn’t any good for you – would maybe be looking at dutching the Louis/Kimberley & Louis/Dani straight forecasts.

    Louis has salsa, Charleston and a showdance to ‘Rule The World’ – this suggests he will be incredibly hard to beat.

    Not convinced by Kimberley’s momentum, Tim. Tend to favour the idea Dani scored 3 on the pv last Saturday & with Lisa’s fans more likely to move towards Dani, she could end up Top Female.

    It’s probably a case of having to make some in-running trading decisions too. Sorry to be a little vague. Will be posting in full on the final on Friday.

  27. Rob

    Change of plan – will post today as we now know the dances & good to get some final debate going, especially with a view to how Heisenberg would be wisest to play the markets from here.

  28. Boki

    If Kim’s momentum is true (in pv I mean) she could eventually win it or be 2nd. If it’s not than Dani could be 2nd but I can’t see Dani 1st because of vote split since Louis should get away in the first round already.
    So what I would do in Heisenberg’s case is a forecast combo of:
    Louis/Kim
    Kim/Louis
    Louis/Dani
    But don’t listen to me, I’m just a SCD newbie 🙂

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