Kelvin Decline?

Sep 27, 2019 by Rob

After his impressive week 1 samba, Kelvin is now a best-priced 7-4 to win Strictly 2019. He seems to be a likeable, modest, down-to-earth guy with Strictly voteability in abundance but the fact remains he has now set the bar very high for himself.

We only need to look back to Oti’s previous partner in 2016, Danny Mac, who was exceptional week after week, for a reminder that being the outstanding male dancer, and ticking all the middle England-friendly boxes, doesn’t automatically equate to winning the show.

Kelvin also has the height, size and frame of someone who is going to be best suited to the fast Latin numbers and there is still the ballroom hurdle for him to overcome. That said, his waltz training this week has looked promising but it might well be in the script for the judges to be tougher on him tomorrow night and bring him back down to earth after his stunning start to the series.

Regarding his Outright chance, we should probably also ask the question, why wasn’t he cast on the show in the 1st place, when producers must have known he was an excellent dancer, and as such would prove an asset to the show?

A substitute dancer on this series doesn’t scream Plan A, but it might just have been they had big expectations of Jamie Laing too. He might also have been in their plans to appear on Strictly 2020 and was just unlucky not making the initial list of 15 this year.

Karim impressed too and looks the main threat to Kelvin for Top Male in this series. But it certainly wasn’t the wisest move by Amy to have Karim doing a one-handed handstand as part of his week 1 routine which marked him out as a ringer. His ethnicity is the other issue for him to overcome when you are considering him vs Kelvin in a Strictly vote.

We can probably pencil Karim and Kelvin in for the final already unless the show decides it wants to go down the road of conspiring a shock exit for one of them along the way.

Emma B’s treatment was intriguing in that it turned out to be a pimp slot for her only in name, with the judges keen to be critical and harsh with their scoring. Shirley was particularly tough with her comments and in only giving her a 5. It almost looked like an intentional deramp. Getting rid of jive early is at least good for her. You sense Anton and Emma B would ideally like to see the back of the remaining fast Latins early in the series too.

The expectation is, Emma B will prove highly competent in ballroom, and she gets her first chance to shine tomorrow night dancing foxtrot which is Anton’s favourite ballroom genre. He is aiming for a pure foxtrot routine which will be technically difficult for Emma B to master but could lay down a strong marker for the rest of the series.

Alex Scott, like Emma B, enjoyed an ‘under the radar’ start to the series, dancing first on the night and being scored a miserly 21 for a competent quickstep. This hinted at an intentionally slow introduction for her, teeing her up as a potential ‘journey’ contestant.

Week 1 Leaderboard:

8 – Kelvin and Oti: Samba to La Vida Es Un Carnaval by Celia Cruz – 8, 8, 8, 8 = 32
14 – Karim and Amy: Cha Cha Cha to If I Can’t Have You by Shawn Mendes – 8, 8, 7, 8 = 31
11 – Dev and Dianne: Foxtrot to Build Me Up Buttercup by The Foundations – 7, 7, 8, 8 = 30
10 – Michelle and Giovanni: Cha Cha Cha to So Emotional by Whitney Houston – 8, 8, 7, 7 = 30
4 – Saffron and AJ: Tango to Lips Are Moving by Meghan Trainor – 6, 7, 7, 7 = 27
13 – Will and Janette: Quickstep to Pencil Full of Lead by Paolo Nutini – 5, 7, 7, 7 = 26
15 – Emma B and Anton: Jive to Honey Honey by ABBA – 6, 6, 5, 6 = 23
5 – Mike and Katya: Jive to Do You Love Me by The Contours – 4, 6, 6, 6 = 22
1 – Alex and Neil: Quickstep to I Get a Kick Out of You by Frank Sinatra – 5, 5, 5, 6 = 21
3 – Catherine and Johannes: Viennese Waltz to I Got You Babe by Sonny and Cher – 5, 5, 5, 5 = 20
6 – Emma W and Aljaž: Cha Cha Cha to She’s a Lady by Tom Jones – 5, 5, 4, 5 = 19
9 – David and Nadiya: Foxtrot to Three Lions by Baddiel, Skinner and Lightning Seeds – 3, 4, 5, 5 = 17
12 – Anneka and Kevin: Cha Cha Cha to Gloria by Laura Branigan – 3, 4, 3, 4 = 14
2 – Chris and Karen: Cha Cha Cha to Juice by Lizzo – 3, 4, 3, 3 = 13
7 – James and Luba: Tango to Gold by Spandau Ballet – 2, 3, 3, 3 = 11

A frenetic jive played to Mike Bushell’s strengths and he has the possibility of enjoying an Ed Balls-type trajectory on this year’s show. It looks like the BBC has set its stall out for him to have a decent run. In Katya, he has an ace up his sleeve with her ingenious choreography skills.

Will Bayley also has prospects of a decent run in this series though you sense, like Mike’s jive, he burnt a good dance for himself in Quickstep in week 1. His salsa tomorrow night will also suit.

Michelle Visage enjoyed noticeably generous praise and scores which suggests the BBC is also keen for her to go as deep as possible into the competition, with RuPaul’s Drag Race UK due to start on the BBC3 section of BBC iPlayer on October 3, a show in which Michelle is a judge. Regardless of the show’s best efforts, she is likely to come up short on the public vote sooner or later.

While all 3 of them showcased some ability, it’s the same issue with all of Saffron, Catherine and Dev – will they be able to prove popular enough with the Strictly voting audience? Among the 3, it could be Dev who shines brightest tomorrow night having looked good this week with his jive training.

In terms of the 1st elimination, Chris, despite currently being 2nd last on the judges’ leaderboard, looks like he has been given a ‘Get Out Of Jail Free’ card in the Charleston which is usually vote-winning by being entertaining. Anneka and Emma W are likely to do better with their ballroom routines tomorrow night, so it starts to look like a David James vs James Cracknell dance-off is on the cards.

While paso is something David at least has the type of powerful, imposing frame to sell, it could prove a routine lacking in dance content. The fleet-footed requirements of jive will clearly be difficult for James and his hopes of escaping the bottom 2 will hinge on a potential sympathy vote.

It was noticeable the judges didn’t get the knives out with James last Saturday night, which is understandable given his brain injury, but might also hint they could try and help him avoid the ignominy of 1st elimination by giving him a late running order position and accentuating the positive tomorrow night – ‘it was entertaining, you sold it better, you showed you were having fun, it was a big improvement on last week, it was packed with content, I enjoyed it’ etc, etc.

So the first elimination is not entirely clear cut and it all depends on what’s in the script and how James and David are scored comparatively tomorrow evening.

Week 2 songs and dances:

Anneka and Kevin: Waltz to Run to You by Whitney Houston
Alex and Neil: Cha Cha to What I Did For Love by David Guetta feat. Emeli Sande
Catherine and Johannes: Samba to Let the Groove Get In by Justin Timberlake
Emma and Anton: Foxtrot to Sunshine of Your Love by Ella Fitzgerald
Emma and Aljaž: Tango to Sucker by Jonas Brothers
Michelle and Giovanni: Viennese Waltz to That’s Amore by Dean Martin
Saffron and AJ: Cha Cha to One Touch by Jess Glynne and Jax Jones
Chris and Karen: Charleston to Out of Our Heads by Take That
David and Nadiya: Paso Doble to España cañí
Dev and Dianne: Jive to Dance With Me Tonight by Olly Murs
James and Luba: Jive to Tutti Frutti by Little Richard
Karim and Amy: Foxtrot to The Way You Look Tonight by Frank Sinatra
Kelvin and Oti: Waltz to What the World Needs Now by Burt Bacharach
Mike and Katya: American Smooth to Rhinestone Cowboy by Glen Campbell
Will and Janette: Salsa to 1-2-3 by Gloria Estefan