Luck Be A Lady

Sep 5, 2018 by Rob

Strictly 2018 gets underway on Saturday night on BBC1 and courtesy of the usual spoiler sources, we already know the pairings. Some of the key dates for the diary this year include the first live show on September 22, Blackpool Week on November 17 and the final on December 15.

Also of note, a new dance category, ‘Couple’s Choice’, is being introduced. This looks like an attempt to reinvigorate the show, and will be a potential ‘joker’ card to play over the weeks, with three styles of dance to choose from in the form of ‘Contemporary’, ’Street/Commercial’ and ‘Theatre/Jazz’.

It was noticeable the first 3 names leaked to the press this year were all female and all with varying degrees of dance experience lurking in their backgrounds: Faye Tozer, Vick Hope and Ashley Roberts. It’s perhaps an early sign TPTB (the powers that be) have their eyes fixed firmly on a female winner this year after 3 males have won on the bounce in the form of Jay McGuiness, Ore Oduba and Joe McFadden.

Last year was a stat-defying Strictly as we saw a third consecutive male winner for the first time in the show’s history. TPTB left themselves in a situation whereby a default popular male was topping the televote and they decided to run with it.

On reflection, there were mitigating circumstances that went in Joe’s favour – the Beeb loves to tick boxes and him being the show’s first ever gay winner was probably something TPTB were happy to endorse so, despite him being an average dancer, they did not seek to apply the breaks on his vote.

One aspect that went against them last year was, they didn’t have a female in the field that married the requisite dance skills with a winning personality. Alexandra Burke and Debbie McGee were both hamstrung by ringer accusations and varying degrees of toxicity in regard to their general voter appeal, while Gemma Atkinson had the likability but couldn’t back it up with enough dance improvement over the course of the series.

Looking at this year’s field, it appears strongly weighted towards finding a female winner, the pairings further hint this will be TPTB’s aim, and there are a few who potentially tick both the dance ability and likability boxes.

Favourite Ashley Roberts, ex-Pussycat Dolls, is 36 and came 2nd in I’m A Celebrity… 2012. Her being American was seen as a potential neg when she took part in IAC but she went on to nearly win it, beaten by Charlie Brooks by a little over 1%, with Brooks aided by a heart-rending VT involving her being given the chance to see her young daughter. In IAC, Ashley came across as easy-going, down-to-earth, positive, and someone with a good sense of humour.

She lives in London and is an honorary Brit. The risk for Ashley is, she will very likely be outstanding from week 1 which will give her no room for a journey. But her pairing with Pasha looks a definite positive – he is the last male pro to guide a female to victory (Caroline Flack in 2014), is an excellent teacher and always comes across well in interview as a humble guy.

Faye Tozer, 42, ex-Steps, has a 9-year-old son, starred in Lloyd-Webber’s one-woman musical Tell Me On A Sunday, and has a dance school training background including ballet, tap and modern. Dancing wise, she doesn’t look like being of the same standard as Ashley and Vick at series start so there is some journey potential with her. Giovanni has also made 2 out of the last 3 finals since his debut in 2015 and formed an endearing partnership with Debbie McGee in the last series.

TV and radio presenter Vick Hope, 28, works as Capital FM’s regional breakfast show presenter and will be something of an unknown to many viewers. Originally from Newcastle-upon-Tyne, she is a former club dancer, and also a former Cambridge graduate. She has explored world dance as part of her tv documentary work.

She comes across as very ambitious and the type that will throw herself into the training. She also ticks the ethnic diversity box which is so beloved by the Beeb and is a human rights activist. The downside for her is, lack of profile at series start but part of her journey could be viewers getting to know her and potentially warming to her throughout the series.

It’s a similar story with her pro partner, newcomer Graziano Di Prima. We haven’t got to know him yet, which could be perceived as a slight neg but he has the look of a real Latin heart-throb and this looks like a potentially dynamic pairing. First season pros have won the show before. Following Brendan Cole and Darren Bennett in the first 2 series, Artem Chigvintsev (series 8, Kara Tointon) and Aljaz Skorjanec (series 11, Abbey Clancy) also achieved this.

Former England cricketer Graeme Swann is 39 years old and obviously test cricketers had a good early run in series 3 and 4 with Darren Gough and Mark Ramprakesh both winning. Since then Phil Tufnell (eliminated in week 9, series 7) and Michael Vaughan (eliminated in week 9, series 10) fared less well.

’Swanny’, as he is affectionately known among cricket fans, is a charismatic guy and he’ll definitely throw himself into the challenge though he says he hasn’t done much sober dancing in his life. One concern is, he does sometimes come across as a bit too full of himself, and someone who loves the sound of his own voice. The only form guide is The Sprinkler Dance he helped make famous during England’s successful Ashes tour in Australia back in 2010-11, and on Test Match Special Swann recently said his kids had taught him how to do the floss which he performed at the official red carpet launch.

He says he would like to perfect the waltz and he could certainly prove himself better than mere dad dancer material. Oti will also ensure they entertain with their routines when they have the chance. Him following the same winning trajectory as Darren Gough and Mark Ramprakesh looks likely to be a step too far but Test Match Special listeners seem to be quite a nice fit with Strictly’s voting demographic and he looks capable of a decent run.

Danny John-Jules of Red Dwarf fame is 57 and another with a dance background appearing in West End theatre productions and a previous Wham! video. He looks like being the ‘good oldster’, like Debbie McGee last year, but does seem to like sounding off on Twitter. Indeed, on the eve of this series he has been mired in tabloid controversy for past Tweets claiming the judges have been racist in their scoring, with reference in particular to Aston in last year’s series.

At the outset he looks like being the best male dancer on this year’s show, but being the best male doesn’t always equate to being the last male standing, and there have to be a few nagging doubts regarding how popular he will prove with voters in the long run despite being remembered fondly among middle-aged BBC viewers for playing the Cat in the long-running sci-fi comedy.

Blue member Lee Ryan, 35, certainly isn’t the sharpest tool in the shed as we saw when he took part in Celebrity Big Brother 2014 but comes across as someone who doesn’t take himself too seriously which is a plus. In interview at the red carpet launch he mentioned he struggles to concentrate which could make things hard for him in the training room and learning choreo. In his favour, he’s a good looking, middle England-friendly white guy, and at least has a performing arts background, although he claims he avoided dance lessons back in those performing arts days and this was one reason he focused on singing.

Fellow Blue member Simon Webbe made the podium back in 2014 behind winner Caroline Flack. If he can show improvement he could be in the mix for Top Male honours, with Blue’s older female fans likely to be a decent fit with your average Strictly voter. Nadiya did a great job with Davood last year, finishing in 6th place, and the two of them could have a bit of spark which hopefully for Lee’s prospects doesn’t extend to scurrilous tabloid rumours of a showmance given Nadiya has a partner with whom she has a young daughter.

Seann Walsh, 32, is a stand up comic and looks like being the contestant called upon to bring some humour to the dancefloor. There is usually one each year who becomes the must-see no-hoper who garners voting support. It was Susan Calman last year, Ed Balls the year before; Jeremy Vine, Judy Murray, Mark Benton in the 3 preceding years. If he goes for the comedy/entertainment vote this might enable him to go further than his ability merits. We saw a couple of series back how Katya was able to work her magic getting Ed Balls to entertain.

Kate Silverton, 48, follows a long line of BBC news presenters. Natasha Kaplinsky of course won series 1, while Susannah Reid achieved a top 3 finish back in series 11. She is a mother of two and we have a small form guide when she attempted to dance a Lady Gaga routine during Children In Need 2010… It looks unlikely her dance ability will be good enough for her to make it to the latter stages but being paired with the well-liked Aljaz is a positive.

Stacey Dooley, 31, is famous for her investigative journalism and earned an MBE earlier this year. Her documentaries have appeared on BBC3 on subjects such as child labour and sex trafficking in the Third World. Part of her success on these shows is her empathy. She comes across well in interview but she will be more of a beginner at series start compared to the likes of Ashley and Vic.

Kevin from Grimsby has a strong track record on the show, and seems to be generally well liked by the average Strictly viewer, even helping Susan Calman reach week 10 last year. He is a good teacher, clever choreographer and looks a positive for Stacey’s long-term prospects.

Katie Piper, 34, is most famous for having sulphuric acid thrown at her and requiring her face to be re-built. This lends itself to a certain empathy among viewers at series start but she has also said she has no sense of rhythm. Investigating her profile she did take dance lessons when she was younger including tap.

It will be a dangerous tightrope to walk if she is going to seek sympathy throughout and bang on about the difficulties she is having. There has already been a news story about her struggling with the training due to respiratory problems and being unable to move her head to the right position because of a band of scar tissue.

Lauren Steadman, 25, is this year’s less able-bodied box ticker as a paratriathlete. She could well have a similar trajectory on the show to Jonnie Peacock last year – scored generously, patronised regarding ‘being an inspiration’, before bowing out with dignity around Blackpool Week. The Daily Mail reported she has taught salsa classes for 4 years and it is always dangerous to under-estimate the BBC’s desire to box-tick minorities so if Lauren impresses enough it may love to have its first less able-bodied winner.

This Morning’s resident doctor, Ranj Singh, is 38 and fills the This Morning quota this year, and he is this year’s gay male contestant to boot. Some have tried to describe him as a housewives’ favourite but being openly gay doesn’t seem to fit with the notion of being a housewives’ favourite. He has also worked on CBeebies and looks like he will be able to cut a rug, but the Beeb ticked the gay male winner box last year with Joe.

Having promised not to scrape the z-list barrel this season Joe Sugg, 26, was announced as taking part. He is apparently a ‘YouTube sensation’, known as ThatcherJoe, with 8.2 million subscribers.

Looking at his videos he clearly has ‘youf’ appeal which is by no means a good fit with the Strictly voting audience. His YT channel gives him a platform and some of his fans may be persuaded to follow his progress on the show and vote for him but a video found of him learning street dance also suggests he will be a total novice and is not especially well co-ordinated.

Susannah Constantine, a 56-year-old mother of 3, and famous for the Trinny and Susannah and What Not To Wear tv fashion shows, looks like a definite also-ran this year. She went out early when taking part in I’m A Celebrity… in 2015, and doesn’t come across as very easy to like. It was no surprise to see her paired with Anton who often gets lumbered with the ropey older woman.

Charles Venn, 45, has studied performing arts and starred in Casualty since 2015, following a stint on Eastenders. Venn is a ripped guy so we can expect some drooling from Tess, Claudia, Shirley and co. He looks a potentially good mover and on the plus side, his partner Karen is an excellent teacher and always comes across as a lot of fun in interview.

There is no doubt we will see some dark arts along the way to the final and we will need to keep an eye on who is announced for the Strictly Tour 2019. TPTB love a confected ‘shock’ elimination for the headlines it brings, some are sacrificed because they are unavailable for the Strictly Tour, while others lose out at the expense of a diversity box the Beeb is desperate to tick.

Looking back, perhaps in the case of Ore Oduba winning the series in 2016 it was also to do with a Len Goodman betting sting, as renowned gambler Harry Findlay describes in his autobiography hearing via Goodman’s neighbour to back Ore at double figure odds to win on the eve of the final:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Given this story, one starts to wonders if the Goodman cash was down on Kellie Bright in 2015 when he helped give her and Kevin a monster ramp in the final which saw her odds crash. Certainly with Shirley Ballas, while her scoring appeared very inconsistent in the last series, there didn’t appear to be as many dark arts at work with her as head judge, though Aston’s ’shock’ exit did look cleverly teed up.

In summary, Ashley looks a worthy favourite but sustained brilliance over the weeks may ultimately prove her downfall as we have seen so many times down the years, and she may end up being pipped to the post by a ‘journey’ female.