Man Alive! No Jive

Dec 18, 2015 by

Man Alive! No Jive

No jive for Jay. No jive for Jay. There was a brief panic when it broke at the start of the week there would be no reprise of that amazing week 3 jive in the Strictly final with Jay drifting as a result from 1.2 to… 1.25.

As someone sitting on some 10-1 investments on Jay and as big as 14-1 on the Jay/Louisa double, this certainly wasn’t ideal news.

To clarify, there are 2 live Strictly shows tomorrow night. In the first, couples perform a judges’ choice and then their showdance. Phonelines will open after couples have danced their first, judges’ choice dance.

In the second ‘results’ show, 4th place will be announced at the start of the show, then the 3 remaining couples will dance their favourite routine of the series. The winner will then be announced, and if the BBC follows the same protocol of the last 3 years, since the 4-couple final has been in force, there will be no clarification on 2nd and 3rd place, so dead-heat rules will likely apply.

Jay has been given his week 4 Quickstep (25pts) to improve upon by the judges, a dance he lost timing with. It is a dance teed up for vast improvement. At time of writing there has been no clarification on Katie, Kellie and Georgia’s judges’ choice dances.

Jay and Aliona’s showdance will be a medley of all the different dances Jay has mastered over the weeks set to ‘Can’t Feel My Face’ by The Weeknd, a song probably unfamiliar to a lot of Strictly viewers despite its huge YT figure.

The good news for Jay fans is, the last part of this dance is said to be the last part of that infamous jive. Regardless, you would expect the range of dance steps to be showcased during this routine to be appreciated by the judges.

Jay and Aliona will reprise their week 5 paso doble (33pts) as their favourite dance, a dance with all the requisite drama to seize the moment.

Ultimately, the clues have been there in recent weeks that the judges are fully behind Jay and endorsing him as a winner, so it would come as a surprise if this isn’t the continuing narrative tomorrow evening. Added to which one highly voteable male vs three females is a big, built-in advantage for Jay given Strictly’s voting demographic.

With Jay looking like a winner-in-waiting, more intrigue surrounds how things will play out among the 3 remaining female contestants. This series of Strictly has generally been a great money-spinner but from looking in a position of strength in terms of Top Female investments a few weeks ago, things have unravelled somewhat.

Helen was initially advised but departed in the quarter-final, and it came as an even bigger blow to see Anita depart Strictly last Saturday, having flagged her up as the Top Female value pre-series at 12-1, and also at 22-1 e/w on the Outright.

She can certainly feel hard done by. Throughout the entire series, Anita seemed to be consistently under-scored, and this was the case again with her foxtrot last Saturday. It is hard to understand why she received such harsh treatment given she will be on the Strictly Tour next year.

A further concern in terms of earlier advised Top Female investments was seeing Katie dragged down into the dance-off and she now looks like she has a tough battle on her hands making the last 3.

The good news for Katie is, her stirring showdance music of ‘O Fortuna’. It is easy to envisage something compelling, no doubt strongly ballroom-based, with Katie describing it on ITT earlier this week as ‘epic’.

The final is all down to the public vote, of course, but the judges can very unsubtly guide voters with their scoring and comments. Katie received a ridiculously harsh 4 for her Charleston from Craig last week and the general focus on her errors certainly helped dismantle her vote on the night.

Granted a level playing field tomorrow night, Kellie and Georgia look equally vulnerable to end up in 4th place. Georgia’s showdance is to Coldplay’s ‘Fix You’. It’s a decent song choice on paper. The concern is, mention of it being ‘contemporary’.

Contemporary can be a dangerous road to go down and it was only Louis Smith’s gymnastic prowess and the fact he was topping the public vote that allowed his contemporary showdance to be lauded by the judges back in 2012.

Among the 4 showdance songs, the one that looks most suspect is Kellie’s ‘Ding-Dong Daddy of the D-Car Line’. Ian Waite was keen on early training footage which revealed it is going to be heavily Lindy Hop-based. It would appear to be a very frenetic routine, however, which will risk looking messy.

Kellie has been in the dance-off twice but courtesy of massive ramping over the last 2 weeks she has ended up a surprise finalist. It was beyond blatant the way she was positioned at the top of the judges’ leaderboard last week in a move that looked engineered to ensure at least one of Anita and Katie fell into the bottom 2.

What we also know is that Kellie and Georgia have both chosen Charleston as their favourite dance. This could be seen as a small negative for Kellie’s last 3 chances as TPTB may not consider 2 Charlestons to be the ideal mix for the final show, with Georgia’s Charleston looking teed up for a 40.

Couples’ choices:

Kellie and Kevin have chosen to Charleston to ‘Starwars Cantina Band’ by John Williams – week 3, 32pts
Georgia and Giovanni have chosen to Charleston to ‘Hot Honey Rag’ from Chicago – week 8, 39pts
Jay and Aliona have chosen to Paso Doble to ‘It’s My Life’ by Bon Jovi – week 5, 33pts
Katie and Anton have chosen VW to ‘If I Can Dream’ by Elvis Presley – week 4, 33pts

It will probably be a case of Jay and Georgia at the top of the leaderboard after the first 2 dances, and Kellie and Katie at the bottom. As long as Katie isn’t placed a long way adrift in last place and doesn’t incur a double deramp in terms of the scores and judges’ comments she is given for her 2 dances (as was the case last week), she has a good chance of avoiding 4th place, most likely at Kellie’s expense.

If they want to create the illusion of a close contest, it will most likely be Georgia who is ramped tomorrow night, and this could have an impact on the Outright market on Betfair.

The prediction here is that Jay and Aliona will be lifting the Glitterball trophy tomorrow night. But if you have followed earlier investment advice in this series including Jay pre-series at 6-1, and Katie for Top Female at 5-1, it is worth a small saver on a surprise Georgia win.

Advised:

Georgia – Outright – 2pt win – 6-1 – Coral, Ladbrokes, Paddy Power

31 Comments

  1. hemsby

    Thanks for all the articles throughout the series Rob.

    It’s been an incredibly profitable show for anyone following your betting advice……very well done

    • Rob

      Thanks hems. It certainly has been a profitable and highly enjoyable series of Strictly. For the bank balance, it is fingers crossed Katie makes the last 3 and Jay is crowned champion 🙂

  2. M8

    Many thanks once again Rob for all your hard work and fantastic articles on a profitable series. Had a few bumps towards the end but we can’t really complain considering the first month of the show where every elimination was called correctly by yourself. It felt at that point like it was almost too easy! Also a shoutout to James I think it was who found that absolute gem on Ladbrokes for a ten to be awarded in a certain week. Hopefully we get the right result this weekend to round things off nicely for yourself and everyone else who reads.

    Even on a personal note I’d be happy for Jay to win as well, dance training or not he seems a nice bloke and I’ve always liked Aliona. I’ll be sad to see Ola depart as well, I’ve been watching SCD long before I started betting on it and believe it or not she and Chris Hollins were probably one of my favourite ever partnerships.

    • Rob

      Thanks M8 and thanks for all your posts throughout the series. I, too, was a big fan of Ola the year she won with Chris, partly due to the 28-1 I initially backed them at for the win. That Charleston was genius 🙂

      And thanks to James too who, as you point out, spotted that great bit of value on that Ladbrokes Special market.

      I see Lads has its buzzword market for the Strictly final. Could we get a ‘pickle my walnuts’ from Len in the context of, ‘If you’re not in the final 3 after that…’ 10-1 looks a big price. £10 max stake.

  3. M8

    Thanks for that spot Rob. Love those markets, good old Len never fails to deliver with one of his old classics. As for that 28/1, yep it’s safe to say you owe Ola a bottle of red for that Charleston choreo 😉

  4. James

    Hi Rob. Thanks for all of your Strictly articles this year. It has certainly improved my Strictly experience, both entertainment wise and financially!

    Some things to look out for tonight…

    – Will Kevin dance 1st in the final, as he did in both 2013 & 2014?
    – Will Kevin receive his first ever 10 from Craig? In 45 dances, his highest score is 9 (received 17 times)
    – Will Anton receive his first ever 9 from Craig? In 91 dances, his highest score is 8 (received 10 times)
    – Will Anton receive his first 10 from any judge?

    • Rob

      Thanks James. I think those stats of yours are key regarding who finishes 4th and who progresses to the final 3.

      If Kellie and Kevin land 10s for their lindy hop-based showdance, it could be tough for Katie. But if the judges are critical and it looks messy (my hope), and it only gets 8s and 9s, that will open the door for Katie and Anton, especially if they produce something compelling which lands a 10 or two. In that scenario, Katie will be in a strong position to make the last 3.

  5. M8

    Just watching Georgia’s freestyle live. Yes the blindfold is very innovative if you’ve not watched DWTS. Looks like Giovanni has spent the whole week watching Bindi Irwin and Derek Hough videos.

  6. Tim B

    Kellie could snatch this. She gets the pimp slot next round too, assuming Katie is the one getting eliminated.

    • Rob

      She certainly could, Tim, and that appears to be what the judges are actively striving for.

  7. Rob

    Very strange final so far with the Kellie ramp-athon continuing. Can only think it’ll be another 40 for her Star Wars Charleston.

    Katie looks toast but if there’s a surprise it’ll be Georgia out first. I wonder if this is the Beeb’s response following all the fix allegations but quite unnecessary judge reactions tonight putting a dampener on the whole show.

  8. James

    Skybet still have Kellie as 5/2 in the ‘top female’ market

  9. M8

    I could be wrong but those judges comments for Jay makes me think he may be running away with the vote. All the comments from each judge was what you would say to a winner’s final dance.

  10. M8

    Well that was stressful as hell but the right result! As soon as I heard those judges comments I knew he had it. Congrats Rob and well done. Best moment of the whole night was seeing the camera pan over to the gutted Clifton’s in the skybox. Fantastic stuff!!!

    • Rob

      Ha, ha. Brilliant M8 – gonna have to watch it back on iPlayer just to see their reaction 🙂 One of the strangest ramps I’ve ever seen on the show that lasted for 3 weeks.

      Her dancing didn’t justify the scoring for me. There were always huge performance elements, and gimmicky costumes/production with K&K. I think they may know where the bodies are buried 🙂

      A great result and hopefully a highly profitable series for all readers.

  11. Matt

    That for a bit hairy. Thanks Rob and the regulars. An amazing season perfectly navigated

    • Rob

      Well done Matt. Certainly a relief to hear Jay called the winner. Always felt he would hold Kellie off but you never know for sure until the result is announced.

  12. Matt

    Sorry little bit drunk but the gist of that message was well done all. A worthy winner. Cheers Rob

  13. Boki

    Hi Rob,

    First of all congrats on the amazing SCD season!

    As you know, I like reality betting and for singing contests like Eurovision and X Factor most of the time I use my own judgements. That doesn’t mean I don’t enjoy reading your articles/views, of course.

    SCD is totally different for me since I lack the ability to judge those dances and public opinion, so your articles/proposals offers me opportunity not only to bet but also to learn something about the show. Despite being heavily handicapped with restrictions to majority of UK bookies, I managed to make some profit based on your recommendations. I wish I could have staked more this year 🙂

    I would like to make a donation to the site, as I did once in the past. Can you please bring back the donate button or send me an email with your paypal account. I also invite all the readers who made profit based on these free recommendations to do the same.

    Last but not least (this may sound controversial but this is how I see it): I suggest you to go to the subscription model in the future, similar to what you did with ESC.

    • Rob

      Hi Boki. Thanks for your post. I am pleased to hear you turned a nice profit on Strictly 🙂 I know only too well the difficulty of restrictions.

      I will do a full analysis of the profit figure on all my advised investments during this autumn/winter run of shows, along with ESC 2015 of course to give a full annual figure. Strictly certainly proved very lucrative this series.

      Very kind of you to offer a donation. To be honest I am not the most tech savvy person when it comes to all the bells and whistles of WordPress and am not sure if the Donate link is possible to set back up.

      I am just happy to help readers to turn a profit in this niche world of betting we all exist in – really what EntOdds was set up with the intention of doing.

      I will re-introduce the subscription for ESC 2016. Beyond that, we will see.

  14. I’d also like to add my thanks Rob. Terrific analysis which has not only been an excellent money spinner but really adds to the enjoyment of the shows (although I still struggle to watch too much X Factor!).

    Let’s see if Muzza can round of the year in style later..

    Cheers
    Paul

    • Rob

      Thanks Paul. I’ve certainly long preferred watching Strictly compared to the nasty machinations of the Syco machine during XF.

      It’s a feel-good show which is why last night’s final was such an odd affair – they managed to kill a lot of that feel-good spirit by being so duplicitous and mean. It was more like watching an XF show.

      Fingers crossed for tonight. I imagine you are in a great position with your year-long trading of the SPOTY markets.

  15. Steve

    Hi Rob,

    A huge thank you for all your tips this SCD season. Jay at 10/1 was the highlight for me but got spooked by Kellie and laid waaaay too much profit off. What was most confusing for me was the returns on Top Female and winner w/o Jay. Most bookies paid usual dead heat rules. However, with Betfair I came out as a loss. Apparently with odds lower than evens they reduce your stake accordingly. Once I realised Jay had it in the bag and felt Katie was nailed on for fourth, I piled into Katie and Kellie in both markets. Wish I had read their T and C before. Whereas I thought it was free money it turned out I was doing myself no favours. However to make up for it Unibet paid full whack for Kellie Top female so I can’t complain there.

    Big question now is, should I keep my nerve for a Murray win and hope my fellow Scots haul him over the line or should i hedge. Question is who? BBC won’t let Fury win, Sinfield is not well known enough and Hamilton won last year. Worth a saver on Ennis Hill/Murray 1-2 straight forecast? Just like the polls called Jay last night, Ladbrokes, Telegraph (30th Nov) and Independent have Murray well clear. Only Mirror and recent Telegraph poll have him neck and neck with Fury. Any thoughts are very welcome.

    Once again thank you so much for your invaluable advice and tips.

    • Rob

      Hi Steve and thanks for your comments. Yeah, it was an unnerving experience for all us Jay backers 🙂 I’d got Kellie covered well enough but Jay winning was a much more profitable result given pre-series backs of Jay and in doubles with XF Louisa.

      The dead-heat rule is a tricky one. I posted something earlier in the series explaining how Georgia had looked a lay to me for TF at 1.5 because of the dh rule. Basically, if you are laying below Evens and it is a dead-heat you will make money as the layer.

      So obviously last night we had a dh for TF and a dh in the ‘without Jay’ market if it was a win-only bet. Coral did offer ‘w/o Jay’ e/w 1, 2 so you would have been paid out half your win stake at the win odds but your full place stake at the place odds on either of the 2nd place dead-heaters. All quite confusing.

      SPOTY is a lively market this year because of the Fury factor. What happens during the show tonight could yet have a bearing on the outcome. I do think Muzza will win unless Fury’s sexist remarks lead to bigger support for Jess. Will be interesting to see if they try and make Jess the beneficiary of an anti-Fury vote but with Muzza in attendance they will surely push him too.

      If you have only backed Muzza, I would look to cover on Ennis. I think Sinfield is most likely 3rd placer. Good luck tonight.

  16. M8

    I hope you got the opportunity to catch that winning moment on I-Player again Rob. I just laughed the house down for the second time watching Joanne and Karen Clifton clapping with faces of a bulldog chewing a wasp.

    Good luck everyone for the Eurovision tonight from a largely Murray backer.

    • Rob

      Couldn’t resist watching the winning moment again, M8. A proper rofl moment of schadenfreude seeing their reaction on the balcony 🙂

  17. M8

    Whoops, meant to say SPOTY. Shouldn’t have had that extra can at dinner 🙂

  18. James

    Hi Rob. I see that Stan James have opened a market on which professional dancer will win Strictly this year. Looking back at the historical data, I can see a number of reasons why Joanne Clifton is likely to perform well in 2016.

    1) ‘Second series success’ – Male professionals often perform well in their first year of competition, with four winning the show and another four finishing in second place. Female professionals have not fared so well, with only Natalie Lowe earning a top two position in year one. This discrepancy between the genders is not repeated in year two.

    Of the nine male professionals who had a top 5 position in year one and competed in a second series, only four repeated their ‘top 5’ success in year two, and none of the nine finished with a higher finishing position in year two. (Not a good sign for Giovanni or Gleb).

    Of the eleven female professionals who finished outside of the top 5 in year one, and competed in a second series, seven achieved a ‘top 5’ finish in year two.

    2) ‘Things can only get better’ – There have been seven instances in which a professional finished outside the top ten in their first year on the show, and then competed on a second occasion. In each instance the professional improved on their finishing position by a minimum of six places.

    Matthew 12th -> 5th
    Flavia 12th -> 2nd
    Ola 11th -> 5th
    Aliona 14th -> 2nd
    Iveta 14th -> 7th
    Janette 13th -> 5th
    Tristan 14th -> 8th

    Joanne finished in 11th place in her first series.

    3) ‘Merry Christmas & A Happy New Year?’ – Joanne won the 2015 Xmas special. In recent years, this success has seen that professional partnered with a contending celebrity in the following series

    2010 Xmas champion, Kristina: 2011 series, partnered Jason Donovan (3rd place)
    2011 Xmas champion, Vincent: 2012 series, partnered Dani Harmer (4th place)
    2012 Xmas champion, Ola: 2013 series, partnered Ashley Taylor-Dawson (6th place)
    2013 Xmas champion, Flavia: 2014 series, did not compete
    2014 Xmas champion, Aliona: 2015 series, partnered Jay McGuiness (1st place)

    On top of these stats, Joanne was dealt a very poor hand by the show in 2015, and handled it both professionally and graciously. This attitude will not have harmed her chances of being partnered with a contender in 2016.

    Another professional who could be in line to perform well in 2016 is Oti. It will be her second series, and she finished 14th in her first year. However, given the fact she was partnered with a young (albeit injured) celebrity in year one, there is a greater probability she will be partnered with an older celebrity in year two.

    The 2016 Strictly professional line-up should be confirmed in April. If Joanne is included, the stats show she is a likely top five finisher, and odds of 14/1 would look good value.

    • Rob

      Thanks for sharing, James. This is excellent stuff. Stan James has run this ‘winning pro’ market for a few years now, and it is well worth dissecting as you have done to unearth the value. They can be pretty strict with their online restrictions but there are always a few SJ shops out there too 🙂

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