Michael To Remain ‘Not Out’

Oct 25, 2012 by

Michael To Remain ‘Not Out’

Last week we speculated that they would more likely prefer to shake things up at the top of the leaderboard so this series doesn’t look a procession for Louis Smith and Denise van Outen.

Denise, 1st, 32pts, Louis, 2nd, 30pts, after being given the pimp slot. Ho-hum… sometimes things don’t work out how you expect. A bottom 2 of Michael and Jerry also went to form, with last placed Sid getting a sympathy boost after choking back the tears. Richard leapt up to 5th from bottom after some generous scoring, and comments, following his bottom 2 appearance the week before.

What happened to Sid and Richard serves to illustrate certain TV Trading Tips highlighted at the top of the home page, and is a reminder that it often pays to stick to tried and tested principles. A certain Daily Star vote leak last Sunday also showed the value of the advice in this section.

Sticking with the ‘bounce’ theory, we like Michael Vaughan’s prospects of escaping the bottom 2 on Saturday. He is much better in ballroom and is dancing a Quickstep. He has been putting in the hours this week and training footage suggests he’s going to perform well and, in theory, he should score highly enough, and get enough praise from the judges to help keep him out of the danger zone.

In lowest score betting, our eye is immediately drawn to Ladbrokes‘ quote of 4-1 Richard. This looks great value. Vaughan should certainly not be favourite here and Richard has the difficult-to-pull-off-well, Paso Doble, a dance that is not a natural fit with his ‘camping-it-up’ strengths.

After Sid got a mauling last week, we would expect the judges to be a little more generous towards his cha, cha, cha, while Nicky (Tango), Victoria (Tango), Colin (Salsa) and Fern (American Smooth) should all be capable of outscoring Richard.

In highest score betting Denise’s cha, cha, cha and Louis’s tango will both no doubt score well, but we would rather fish in bigger-priced waters given there look a few other contenders capable of scoring 32 or higher.

Paso Doble is usually difficult to score highly in at such an early stage in the series which is enough to put us off Kimberley. The 2 we favour at the odds are Lisa at 6-1, dancing a Charleston, and Dani at 16-1, doing the cha, cha, cha (both prices available with Ladbrokes).

Lisa and Robin look capable of producing something very special if they manage to nail what looks a tricky but humorous routine, while Dani has shown herself to be much more adept at fast Latin numbers and is possibly due her moment in the sun.

If Richard ends up bottom of the leaderboard, this may give him a better chance of leaping out of the bottom 2, but if our prediction is right and Vaughan scores reasonably well, then Richard will be more vulnerable so pre-show we reckon 11-4 Richard to be the next eliminated, with Boylesports, looks fair value.

In terms of bottom 2 we will also be looking to dutch Fern at 11-4 and Colin at 4-1 (Ladbrokes), as both look likely to end up in that dangerous ‘below mid-table’ position on the leaderboard, and we have big doubts over their voter appeal, not to mention Colin’s strange Salsa face.

Here’s this week’s full list of dances:

Fern – AS
Denise – CCC
Dani – CCC
Sid – CCC
Victoria – Tango
Louis – Tango
Nicky – Tango
Richard – Paso
Kimberley – Paso
Michael – QS
Colin – Salsa
Lisa – Charleston

With more training footage to be seen things can change and we will keep you updated below. Join the chat and let us know your views ahead of Saturday night.
Rob Furber

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12 Comments

  1. Rob

    Some more info – this week’s songs:

    Denise & James – Cha Cha to “Superfreak” by Rick James

    Victoria & Brendan – Tango to “White Wedding” by Billy Idol

    Lisa & Robin – Charleston to “Witch Doctor” by Don Lang

    Kimberley & Pasha – Paso Doble to “Hungry Like The Wolf” by Duran Duran

    Fern & Atrem – American Smooth to “Killer Queen” by Queen

    Louis & Flavia – Tango to “Disturbia” by Rihanna

    Dani & Vincent – Cha Cha to “Scooby Doo Theme” by Hoyt Curtin & The Singers

    Colin & Kristina – Salsa to “Superstition” by Stevie Wonder

    Michael & Natalie – Quickstep to “That Old Black Magic” by Sammy Davis Jr

    Sid & Ola – Cha Cha to “Ghostbusters” by Ray Parker Jr

    Nicky & Karen – Tango to “Weird Science” by Oingo Boingo

    Richard & Erin – Paso Doble to “O Fortuna” by Rhydian

  2. Tim B

    Thanks Rob, I’ve taken those tips but I already had Richard for elimination and a lay on Michael from earlier in the week. I had forgotten about the angle of laying the person bottom of the scoreboard (which I had intended to) so thanks for the reminder.

    Regarding Colin, don’t you think he’s surplus to the show’s requirements now that he’s performed a dance to a James Bond theme? I also agree with what you say a few weeks ago about his wishy-washy celebrity status and I struggle to see where he’d get many votes from. He’s a saver on Richard for elimination for me, along with Fern.

  3. Rob

    Hi Tim,
    I think you could be onto something with Colin there, & he certainly looks decent value at 10-1 to be next eliminated.

    Richard’s paso does look like it has the potential to be a comedy gem which would likely help him out of the bottom 2, especially if he is slated, & ends up bottom of the leaderboard.

    It probably requires Richard to avoid bottom 2 to land the Colin elimination bet but quite feasible for this to happen.

  4. Henry VIII

    Good insights as always on this site.

    Richard may perform butch this week (although still a prime candidate for lowest score). Erin has zero tolerance approach for mincing in the Paso Doble 🙂

  5. Rob

    Certainly encouraged by both Dani’s & Lisa’s training footage on ITT last night.

    Vaughan’s QS also looks potentially very good – can see a massive leap up the leaderboard for him if he nails the routine.

    Richard could go either way. If, like Henry points out, he plays it butch, it may still end up unintentionally funny.

  6. Rob

    Some individual score betting available over at SportingBet.
    Our picks:

    Lisa – over 29.5 – Evens
    Dani – over 28.5 – Evens
    Colin – under 28.5 – 5-6
    Victoria – over 25.5 – 5-6
    **Michael – over 20.5 – 5-6
    Richard – under 21.5 – 11-10

  7. fiveleaves

    I’ve laid MV again, for Elim and B2. His QS looks pretty good.
    Also laid him for lowest score.
    I hope I’m more successful than last week.

    Had a small bet on Sid to go @ 20/1. CCC to ghostbusters sounds dreadful.

    Agree with all your overs and unders, bar maybe VP.
    Sporting no good for me tho so couldn’t get any bets on.

  8. Bruce

    Haven’t seen the result yet but good call on Michael by Rob and also fiveleaves.
    His excellent QS actually merited the high marks and I’d be gobsmacked if he wasn’t close to topping the public vote

  9. fiveleaves

    Sid v Colin.

    Sid gone 😀

    Cheers Bruce. Vaughany could yet do a Goughy.

  10. Rob

    Well done chaps, especially Mr Leaves – brilliant pick of Sid at 20s to go, & all of your lays landed with Michael – elim, bottom 2 & lowest score.

    Best week of Strictly so far with MV the biggest trade – laying him for elim & bottom 2.

    Got some 5s Sid to go when he scored so low. Colin or Fern would have been more profitable elims but also landed some 5-1 Colin to be in the bottom 2 & reversed position on Richard to go by laying him for bottom 2 around Evens after his entertaining paso.

    As for Outright – Bruce, you look to have called it perfectly. Louis looks the only certain finalist atm with his price crashing in and such little competition on male side.

    3/6 on individual score bets though MV was the only bank job there, hence the asterisk, if you could get on.

    Like Leaves, hopeful now of an amazing MV journey – just needs to up his game with fast Latin. Not impossible.

  11. fiveleaves

    Cheers Rob.
    Was an excellent week here, despite losing my pre show pick in Sid.
    In the end he was a small loser for me in my outright book, in that my backs were more than my lays, but that was more than made up for by my elim bets.

    MV all the way now 😉

  12. Rob

    Yes, sad to see the Sid Outright bets get obliterated. Sounds a lot like Melanie’s elim in XF – despite the Outright loss you ended up turning a profit overall. Often the way you need to play it trading these shows.

    Correction – Colin bottom 2 bet was 4-1. A great week overall.

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