Nancy A Cracking Lay

Oct 7, 2011 by

After only one week of Strictly, Jason has been smashed into a best price of 7-4 after a superb cha, cha. cha. He was advised by us at a best price of 8-1 on the Outright (7-1 e/w) and 11-4 to be Top Male – for which he is now 11-10 – so we hope you followed us in, as we reckon he is virtually guaranteed to make the 3-couple final.
We also recommended Russell Grant at 66-1 (50-1 e/w) on the Outright and 33-1 to be Top Male. He is now into 33-1 and 14-1 respectively – and we expect to see those prices slowly contract further in the coming weeks.
For those who caught our first YouTube video blog, which followed the initial post on here, we also flagged up Anita Dobson at 25-1 to win, 20-1 e/w and 12-1 to be Top Female after we got wind of her potential. Anita produced a lovely waltz and is now a best price of 12-1 on the Outright and 4-1 to be Top Female, so overall, if you followed our pre-series advice, your book will be looking extremely healthy.
We expect to see Jason, Russell and Anita all make it to the last 6. Holly and Harry both showed their potential last week and look like they have the likability and the talent to join them which means, if we are proved correct and they all stay fit and healthy, there is only one other place up for grabs in the latter stages.
Chelsee, as predicted, has the dancing ability but the concern with her remains the same: will she be able to harness enough public vote? If she can pull off some remarkable Eliza Doolittle make-over it remains possible.
The only other contenders appear to be Robbie, Dan and Rory. Dan and Rory both produced respectable waltzes whereas Robbie showed plenty of showmanship but very few dance steps in his cha, cha, cha. We will learn much more tomorrow night, especially with Dan and Rory doing salsas.
In training this week, Dan and Rory have both showed a degree of flair, and we still see Dan as the ideal Home Counties type to generate a big public vote if he starts to unleash some decent moves.
Having drifted to 33-1 on the Outright e/w with Ladbrokes, and a best price of 20-1 with Ladbrokes to be Top Male, Dan‘s prices are starting to look too big. And it’s a similar story with Rory‘s quote of 40-1 with Betfred to be Top Male. We certainly wouldn’t put you off having a few cover bets at those prices.
Chris Hollins victory of a couple of years ago told us that it is not always the most technically gifted dancer that wins, and there is always a window for a ‘journey’ contestant the Beeb audience seize upon and run with. And this is where Dan and Rory’s potential lies.
Regarding this week’s first elimination, we think it is worth laying Nancy on Betfair at around 7-4 or less. She will be propping up the leaderboard after her wardrobe malfunction last week left her a long way adrift, and with the difficult salsa to come. In her favour is the sympathy vote that often lifts a last placer, Anton being a much-loved pro, Nancy dealing with adversity so well, salsa being the sort of dance that lends itself to entertainment value, and the panel likely to give her a bit of a boost with their comments after last week’s disaster.
We think Audley and Edwina are going to struggle to get much of a vote at all, and given their respective positions on the leaderboard after week one, we think Edwina is the more likely to go, available to back at a widely-quoted 7-2. Edwina’s foxtrot is likely to be dull and uninspiring whereas at least Audley has a chance to shake his hips and produce something more crowd-pleasing in his salsa.
In Top Scorer betting, Harry looks a bit of value to top the leaderboard with his foxtrot at 7-2 with Ladbrokes (available in the high street). Chelsee is worth a smaller saver at 12-1 with Stan James, dancing the salsa.
Rob Furber

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