Pay Me Out Before You O-Go-Go

Oct 9, 2015 by Rob

This series of Strictly couldn’t have got off to a much better start, with Iwan Thomas, advised at 9-2 to be the first elimination, duly getting his marching orders.

Saturday evening is always a somewhat fraught experience, refreshing the spoiler thread on Digital Spy to discover who was in the dance-off and who got booted off the show.

There was a lot of confusion with an incorrect spoiler doing the rounds that it was Iwan vs Kirsty in the dance-off. Sunday night’s show revealed it was, in fact, an Iwan vs Jamelia bottom 2.

Having initially backed all of Iwan (16-1), Kirsty (25-1) and Jamelia (66-1), it was a dream result come what may, and that 1st elimination market once again hammered home the importance of taking a value approach to these markets.

The Outright has moved pleasingly for anyone who has followed the advice flagged up here. Jay, advised at 6-1 e/w, is now a best-priced 3-1; Anita, advised at 22-1 e/w, is currently 12-1; and Katie, advised at 9-1 e/w, is now 5-1.

As has the Top Female market, Katie now trading as 9-4 after being recommended last week at 5-1, with Anita, previously advised at 12-1, now 9-2, and Helen, previously advised at 7-2, now a best-priced 100-30 with Skybet only.

The one investment to have moved entirely in the wrong direction is Anthony, who can now be backed on the Outright as big as 50-1. His treatment on last week’s show was puzzling. While his waltz showed glimpses of promise, the judges decided to focus on the flaws, scoring him a punitive 19, 2pts less than his jive the previous week, which had hinted at his potential.

It makes you wonder whether show producers are unhappy with Anthony, perhaps not letting on the extent of his shoulder injury, and they are happy to get rid sooner rather than later. He has paso doble tomorrow night, dancing to ‘Eye Of The Tiger’.

It is a tough dance to perform well at the best of times and training footage has done little to appease concerns with Anthony still unable to move his right arm.

Despite his potential to improve over the course of the series, despite his and Oti’s undoubted charisma as a couple, and despite the wonderful Oti being a delightful addition to the cast of pros in this series, Anthony has to be the value pick this week for 2nd elimination at 9-2 with Coral, Boylesports and Skybet.

Carol and Jeremy’s BBC vote bases may well be enough to see them dodge the bottom 2 again. Carol has a quickstep to a middle England-pleasing tune, not to mention a sore eye, to help accumulate votes, while Jeremy should be in his element performing the usually crowd-pleasing Charleston. With Daniel’s army of loyal fans reported to be making the journey across the border to ensure they are able to vote for him, he, too, is more likely to escape the dance-off regardless of his CCC looking likely to score poorly.

Jamelia should have a mini-redemption, as the general rule on Strictly after a dance-off appearance, is to big up the contestant the following week to ensure they at least get a one-week reprieve. Salsa will give her a chance to sell it and for judges to focus on the performance value. After enduring the coffin slot last week Jamelia should also have the luxury of a later slot this week.

It sounds like Ainsley and Natalie may well be dressed as penguins dancing CCC to ‘Boogie Wonderland’ and costumes can sometimes cause a disconnect with viewers. It’s the right sort of uptempo tune for Ainsley to be in his element but running order, comments and scoring will be worth monitoring closely as you sense a mid to lower position on the judges’ leaderboard could see Ainsley at risk of a bottom 2 appearance.

The same can be said for Kirsty. Brendan did a great job with the salsa choreo last week, basically incorporating lots of impressive lifts and very little salsa content to protect Kirsty. An American Smooth to ‘He’s A Tramp’ does offer the window for more lifts and some ballroom glamour but like Ainsley, Kirsty may well need a points boost and a judges’ ramp to keep her safe.

What we know from last week’s scoring is that Ainsley, Anthony, Kirsty, Jeremy and Carol all received a higher public vote than Jamelia. You can probably very safely add Daniel to that list too. With Jamelia expected to get a ramp and a spike in votes this week, the question becomes who among those 6 looks most vulnerable of dropping down. The gut feeling, at least pre-show, is that Anthony, Kirsty and Ainsley are most at risk.

This week’s songs and dances are as follows:

Ainsle and Natalie will be dancing the Cha Cha to ‘Boogie Wonderland’ from Happy Feet.

Anita and Gleb will be performing the American Smooth to ‘Unchained Melody’ from Ghost.

Anthony and Oti will be dancing the Paso Doble to ‘Eye Of The Tiger’ from Rocky.

Carol and Pasha will be Quickstepping to ‘Wash That Man’ from South Pacific.

Daniel and Kristina will be performing the Cha Cha to ‘Summer Nights’ from Grease.

Georgia and Giovanni will be dancing the Rumba to ‘Writing’s On The Wall’ from Spectre.

Helen and Aljaž will be performing the Foxtrot to ‘I Wanna Be Loved By You’ from Some Like It Hot.

Jamelia and Tristan will be performing the Salsa to ‘Heaven Must Be Missing An Angel’ from Charlie’s Angels.

Jay and Aliona will be Jiving to a medley of ‘Misirlou/You Never Can Tell’ from Pulp Fiction.

Jeremy and Karen will be performing the Charleston to ‘Top Hat, White Tie & Tails’ from Top Hat.

Katie and Anton will be dancing the Cha Cha to ‘Pretty Woman’ from Pretty Woman.

Kellie and Kevin will be performing the Charleston to ‘Cantina Band’ from Star Wars.

Kirsty and Brendan will be performing the American Smooth to ‘He’s A Tramp’ from Lady & The Tramp.

Peter and Janette will be dancing the Paso Doble to ‘He’s A Pirate’ from Pirates Of The Caribbean.

While Peter’s paso may well eclipse Anthony’s, there could be some mileage in taking him on for highest score this week, especially given the fact he was given the pimp slot in week 1 and was on 2nd last last week.

At time of posting no highest scorer prices are available but keep an eye out on the Comments section below as hopefully Coral will price up this market tomorrow.

Advised:

Anthony – 2nd elimination – 9-2 – 2pts win – Coral, Skybet, Boylesports

Kirsty – 2nd elimination – 6-1 – 1pt win – Paddy Power