Queen Victoria Set To Reign

Sep 13, 2012 by Rob

The Strictly cast this year looks a hint in itself they would probably like to try and get another woman over the line, with far more strength in depth on the female side among the 14 contestants set to take to the dance floor – our eye immediately drawn to the potential of Dani Harmer, Denise Van Outen, Kimberley Walsh and Victoria Pendleton.

The reason they might prefer a female champion in 2012 is due to the fact Strictly’s public vote is strongly weighted in favour of a popular male with Middle England appeal winning the show.

Time and again the Strictly audience has struggled to warm to attractive females enough, the likes of Louisa Lytton, Emma Bunton, Lisa Snowdon, Rachel Stevens, Laila Rouass, Ali Bastion, Holly Vallance and Chelsee Healey all falling short, regardless of many of those proving themselves dancers of a potentially series-winning standard.

Chelsee came close last year finishing runner-up behind Harry Judd and arguably her finishing position was aided by her being slightly less glamorous looking than some of those other ladies listed.

Without editorial intervention, we would have likely had a winner’s list in the last seven series of: Darren Gough, Mark Ramprakesh, Gethin Jones, Tom Chambers, Chris Hollins, Matt Baker, Harry Judd. Only Alesha Dixon (series 5) and Kara Tointon (series 8) have broken this male stranglehold, and they both required the machinations of TPTB to ensure their victory, Kara boosted by a heavily played upon behind-the-scenes burgeoning romance between her and Artem.

Rumours that the dance-off format is returning in this series – with the bottom 2 dancing off at the end of the show, and the judges then deciding who to save – potentially gives show-makers a handy mechanism to get rid of the most dangerous male (on the public vote) standing in the way of a female victory in the series’ latter stages.

The best evidence of this kind of behaviour came in the 3-couple semi-final back in series 5 when Gethin Jones was lumbered with the hard-to-score-highly-in paso doble. After a 34 (placing him last on the leaderboard) and dancing his Argentine tango last of the 3, he was left in a position whereby even if he scored a perfect 40, he would not overtake Alesha, or the inferior dancer Matt Di Angelo. It was a contrived evening set up to ensure Gethin only got 1 point from the judges, forcing him into the dance-off. The judges duly saved Matt and the final went on to become a procession for Alesha.

And let’s not forget series 6 when the outstanding Austin Healy was eliminated in week 12 following a dance-off, with Tom Chambers facing dance-off elimination in the semi-final the following week before they gave him a last minute reprieve due to a scoreboard technicality. Without that U-turn, which the show was forced into by viewers, it would have been Rachel Stevens and Lisa Snowdon fighting it out for the Strictly crown.

Of course, things are a little different now. Assuming no one drops out during this series, the 14-runner field will be cut down to five couples by the time of the semi-final, with 2 couples presumably biting the dust there, before a 3-couple final on December 22.

It is unclear at the time of writing if a dance-off will play any role in this year’s semi-final but it is worth noting it could be a series-changer, and potential boost to the chances of a female winner. And regardless of dance-offs, as we saw with the Kara Tointon/Matt Baker battle in 2010, relentless ramping/de-ramping can also work the oracle in helping a female win, and taming the vote of the most popular male.

Former girl band members have a history of high finishes but ultimate failure, Rachel Stevens runners-up spot in series 6 being the high water mark to date. What does this tell us about Kimberley Walsh’s chances? Probably that she is a strong contender (possibly paired with Pasha) & a likely candidate to be in the final 5. This is factored into her best price of 5-1 which isn’t very appealing but we certainly won’t be red on her.

Dani looks like she might be a pocket rocket in the Louisa Lytton and Chelsee Healey mould, and rumours she is paired with pint-sized Vincent make sense. We see some potential here –but not enough to recommend backing her just yet.

Denise Van Outen is likely to come out of the starting stalls like a dancing Frankel and the early indications are she’s paired with James Jordan. With her West End experience she’ll be excellent but will the Strictly audience warm to her somewhat brash, ballsy persona, and penalise her due to that experience? We’re not sure, which makes 7-2 not especially appealing. But again, we’ll be keeping her in the green as she looks like cruising into the latter stages of the series.

Given Strictly’s male winner bias, it is counter-intuitive to go and then advise a female, but advise a female we will in the shape of Victoria Pendleton. She’s been Tweeting that expectations regarding her dance ability should be kept to the bare minimum. We hope she starts moderately, giving her room to become a classic journey contestant. Certainly being a complete novice in the dance stakes, compared to the likes of Kimberley and Denise, is a potential positive for her at the outset of the show, as is the fact she gains a natural level of good will and support by being one of the heroes of Team GB.

As an Olympian she is sure to throw herself into the training regime, and she has the glamourous looks and figure to really look the part on the dance floor. She came across as emotionally fragile (today also revealing her self-harming past) but also extremely down-to-earth, open, and genuine in the Olympic documentary charting her progress towards London 2012, and certainly charismatic. The hope is she maintains the same sort of humility she showed in that doc and doesn’t reveal any overly-competitive tendencies which can be a big vote loser for women on this show.

Victoria is rumoured to be paired with the badboy of ballroom, Brendan Cole. If so, that is fine. They could really smoulder as a couple. Brendan’s improved his image over the series and has become a lot more compassionate as a training partner. Victoria was available at 14-1 when prices were first issued and is now into a best-priced 10-1 e/w with Ladbrokes. If she has an average start to the show, those odds may well lengthen, but we recommend getting on now in case her price ends up contracting further. We will be keeping a close eye on quotes on Victoria in Top Female betting too.

Among the front six in the betting, our Strictly instincts tell us to take on Louis Smith (paired with Flavia). He strikes us as a little too slick, not to mention metrosexual looking with his somewhat overly-sculpted visage. This is a man who, when interviewed by 5Live during the Olympic coverage, was happy to tell listeners he makes moisturising part of his daily routine, and no doubt we’ll be seeing his rippling muscles on display during his Latin routines.

Like Pendleton, Louis has the feel good factor of Team GB’s Olympic glories to feed off, but we’re far from certain he’ll be taken to the hearts of Strictly’s audience, who may perceive his gymnastic background as something of an unfair head start and his looks too vain. He’s obviously going to be very good and his odds will likely shorten after a Ricky Whittle-style first effort but there has to be a danger that, much like Matt Baker two series ago, we will see assorted gymnastic moves showcased in his routines, which risk becoming repetitive and showy. Len certainly won’t be impressed. And based on interviews we wonder if he might prove a little bit wooden in terms of personality.

Westlife’s Nicky Byrne (Karen) might be a better bet to achieve heart-throb status and the housewives’ no1 choice in this series but again his price looks short enough at 7-1. Like Kimberley, he has an established fanbase to call upon to aid him when it comes to the public vote. Really, the bookies have become much more savvy, and meaner, when it comes to pricing up these shows pre-series, and with the gannets already getting stuck into the ante-post market, value looks extremely thin on the ground.

Among the remaining 8 contestants, it’s difficult to build a strong case for any of them and it’s far easier to pick out potential Strictly negatives. Jerry Hall (Anton) – too tall for Latin, American. Johnny Ball (Aliona) – too old. Lisa Riley (Robin) – too large, though she might prove the bubbly, Roly Poly type who is surprisingly fleet-footed. Colin Salmon (Kristina) – not very well known, black. Richard Arnold (Erin) – too camp.

Of the outsiders, we are left with Fern Britton (Artem), Sid Owen (Ola) and Michael Vaughan as the only viable potential e/w value. Sid Owen could certainly prove a bit of a dark horse, but seems a rather bland individual. Fern is 55, and the only older female to get close to winning previously was Pamela Stephenson, who was 61 when finishing 3rd in 2010. Fern danced on the Christmas Special in 2010 and didn’t do badly attempting a jive.

One who makes some appeal before a single fleckle has been attempted is former England cricket captain Michael Vaughan. He’s quite a charismatic guy with nearly 300,000 followers on Twitter. Worryingly, he had to retire early from the game because of knee trouble which doesn’t bode well for the training schedule this show demands.

He was an opening batsmen, however, and top test batsmen have to be very light on their feet. In his favour is the record of England test players on the show – Gough and Ramprakash past winners and Phil Tufnell performing reasonably well when going out in week 9 of series 7. Rumours suggest Vaughan is paired with Natalie Lowe and that’s a big plus as Natalie is without doubt one of the best female pros and an excellent teacher.

It is easy to see Vaughan proving extremely suave in ballroom and he has a smile to melt the hearts of middle class ladies everywhere. The big test will be Latin and whether he can improve enough over the course of the series to lay down a challenge. A series win may be too much of an ask, and 18-1 e/w with Coral isn’t great value, and only makes limited appeal, as we expect him to start unconvincingly (at least in Latin), and his price to potentially drift. But we suggest a little dabble as Vaughan could have journey potential and we’ll also be keeping a close eye on his quotes to be Top Male.

Agree or disagree – where do you see the pre-show Strictly value? Let us know below.
Rob Furber