Shock Treatment

Oct 18, 2019 by

Shock Treatment

You wonder if the Dev ‘shock’ elimination was not such a shock to TPTB. Sadly, unlike the old days of X Factor where we could dissect the weekly voting figures at the end of the series to suss out what exactly was afoot, we are never given the opportunity by the BBC so it can only remain idle speculation.

But it could well be all of Chris, Will and Alex have been polling well and placing them in the bottom 3 positions on the judges’ leaderboard, they knew they would all escape the dance-off.

With both David and Mike conveniently jettisoned clear of the bottom 5, and Emma W scored a very generous looking 28 for her jive, this gave the judges room to save her over Dev with plausible deniability.

After the madness of last Saturday, and the big ‘shock’ elimination of Dev, we might expect to see a return to normality tomorrow evening. However, checking out training footage this week, there looks room for a very different looking leaderboard.

Emma W was scored a very generous looking 28 for her jive, and this gave the judges room to save her over Dev with plausible deniability

While Will and Alex filled the last two places on the leaderboard last week, both of them have prospects of rising up much higher this week.

Will’s Contemporary routine to ‘7 Years’ is teed up for a highly emotional dance for him, as he was diagnosed with blood cancer at the age of 7 and during his VT it looks like he will pay a visit to Great Ormond Street Hospital. It is the sort of thing that could lend itself well to the pimp slot, despite Will already enjoying a pimp slot for his week 2 salsa.

Dancing a Charleston, Alex has an open goal to finally showcase her performance skills, and sell an entertaining routine. In training, this has looked excellent and given that 3 weeks out of 4 she has been on early this looks a contender for a late r.o. position or even the pimp slot.

There looks a clear window for both Kelvin and Karim to be scored comparatively poorly on the night. Kelvin’s CCC training hasn’t convinced, it’s a technical dance and there is lots of scope for the judges to go to town nit-picking him. Karim has a very fast looking salsa routine, that looks like it might be packed with too much content, and could end up being too frenetic and a bit messy.

Chris looks like having a good week dancing QS to a great track. Saffron is aided by a Sinatra classic though her foxtrot skills haven’t entirely convinced. Catherine looks the most vulnerable among these 3 with a tango that hasn’t looked any great shakes in training.

Will’s Contemporary routine to ‘7 Years’ is teed up for a highly emotional dance for him, as he was diagnosed with blood cancer at the age of 7

To justify their save of Emma W last week, it would come as no surprise if they talk up and score up her VW and to be fair it has looked decent in training. Emma B’s paso training has also impressed this week and looks like playing well to her acting strengths, so there could be room for her Outright odds to shorten.

Jive looks like being a difficult obstacle for David to overcome given his height, and that Buble track doesn’t lend itself to anything rapid. In training he has looked no more than ok. His amazing comeback last week dancing QS might well prove a one-week thing and the high point of his Strictly journey.

Mike’s samba training looked improved last night and it looks like Katya has again come up with some clever choreo to help them entertain. Given the big productions for his routines, and run of late running orders, it seems unlikely they would try to throw him under a bus at this early stage as he is too big an asset for the show. Pre-show, however, Mike looks the most likely one who could potentially be scored lower than David on the night.

Michelle has the dance of death in the rumba. It hasn’t looked great in training and if the judges finally decide on a reality check with her comments and scoring, she would look extremely vulnerable of appearing in the dance-off.

Dancing a Charleston, Alex has an open goal to finally showcase her performance skills, and sell an entertaining routine

For the sake of Mike’s survival, they might be happy to place Michelle mid-table or below because then a Michelle vs David dance-off would look on the cards.

This is all based on the assumption they do not score up and talk up David’s routine. If any of Michelle, Saffron or Catherine are scored lower than him then we would be teed up for another ‘shock’ elimination. Well, another ’shock’ that has been conveniently manufactured by the show.

Week 4 Judges’ Leaderboard:

Karim & Amy – tango – 9, 10, 9, 10 = 38
Kelvin & Oti – rumba – 9, 9, 9, 9 = 36
Emma B & Anton – VW – 8, 9, 9, 9 = 35
Saffron & AJ – Contemporary – 7, 8, 9, 9 = 33
Mike & Katya – QS – 7, 9, 8, 8 = 32
Michelle & Giovanni – salsa – 7, 8, 8, 8 = 31
Catherine & Johannes – Charleston – 6, 8, 8, 8 = 30
David & Nadiya – QS – 7, 7, 7, 8 = 29
Emma W & Aljaz – jive – 7, 7, 7, 7 = 28 – bottom 2
Dev & Dianne – CCC – 6, 7, 7, 7 = 27 – Eliminated
Chris & Karen – jive – 6, 7, 7, 6 = 26
Will & Janette – foxtrot – 6, 6, 6, 6 = 24
Alex & Neil – tango – 4, 6, 6, 7 = 23

Week 5 songs and dances:

Alex and Neil: Charleston to Pump Up the Jam by Swingrowers
Catherine and Johannes: Tango to Little Bird by Annie Lennox
Emma and Anton: Paso Doble to Nothing Breaks Like A Heart by Mark Ronson and Miley Cyrus
Emma and Aljaž: Viennese Waltz to Saving All My Love for You by Whitney Houston
Michelle and Giovanni: Rumba to Too Good at Goodbyes by Sam Smith
Saffron and AJ: Foxtrot to Theme From New York, New York by Frank Sinatra
Chris and Karen: Quickstep to Let’s Go Crazy by Prince
David and Nadiya: Jive to Such A Night by Michael Buble
Karim and Amy: Salsa to Who Let the Dogs Out by Baha Men
Kelvin and Oti: Cha Cha Cha to Get Stupid by Aston Merrygold
Mike and Katya: Samba to Jump On It by The Sugarhill Gang
Will and Janette: Couple’s Choice: Contemporary to 7 Years by Lukas Graham


  1. James

    Hi Rob

    Based on this week’s routines, I’ve noticed a couple trends.

    – In the five times Aljaz previously danced the Viennese Waltz, he has come top of the leaderboard twice (Abbey & Helen), and finished joint third on another occasion (Daisy).

    – In the five times Karen previously danced the Quickstep, she ended up in the dance off on three occasions (with Mark, Jeremy & Simon).

    In the outright market, a win for either Kelvin or Karim would be a good result for me, and in the last couple of weeks, I have started buying Chris at odds of 150+/1 on the exchange. I have found him an entertaining watch, both on and off the dance floor. If Karim were to suffer the Aston treatment at some point, I see Chris as a more plausible second male finalist than either Will or Mike, and would not rule him out of winning a four way public vote.

    Reaching the final though will prove easier said than done, especially given that after this weekend he will have used up three of the most ‘crowd pleasing’ dance styles (Charleston, Jive & Quickstep).

    • Rob

      Thanks for this, James. I agree Chris is in the mix to potentially go all the way to the final if TPTB choose to back him. Him, Mike and Will all have a legitimate claim as ‘journey’ types, & the 4th final berth is up for grabs. The issue for all 3 will be when things get serious at the last 7 stage.

      I would still make Alex the front runner among the women for that 4th final spot (this is based on Kelvin, Karim and Emma B going to the final). Michelle will need enormous dark arts & a series of dance-off wins to make it but I think this is unlikely.

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