Sid Set To Shine

Oct 4, 2012 by

Sid Set To Shine

To be a successful trader when it comes to tv betting markets, your opinion needs to be constantly evolving, and be open to radical change, as more information comes to light. Over the last couple of weeks we’ve had a chance to assess the early form credentials of the Strictly contestants – courtesy of rather sketchy training room footage appearing on the BBC’s SCD website – and as a result have already altered our stance slightly heading towards tomorrow night’s first live show.

It is dangerous to read too much into these videos as it would appear most segments were filmed at the very start of celebrities’ training schedules but it is possible to pick up some early clues – not just their dance potential but how well they have hit it off with their pro partners, and how they come across in interview.

We’ve been happy to see Victoria Pendleton‘s price come into 7-1 (after advising her at 10-1 e/w). It is clear she is hitting the training studio hard and throwing herself into the challenge. We were also encouraged by all that we read about her this week in the Daily Telegraph.

The widely-available 7-2 for Pendleton to be Top Female remains fair value in our view. We reckon she has a good chance of proving more voter-friendly among the leading females than both Denise Van Outen and Kimberley Walsh.

The main concern with Van Outen is whether the SCD audience will warm to her enough but she could end up winning them over by simply being outstanding. In this field she does have the look of the contestant most likely to prove a cut above the rest, so 5.6 on Betfair is starting to look a backable price.

Dani Harmer, meanwhile, has a touch too much of the earnest stage school performer about her, though among the remaining women she would be our pick, and certainly represents value at 9-1 to be Top Female with Ladbrokes, and 14-1 e/w on the Outright. We get the impression with her that she’ll be very decent at the uptempo Latin numbers which is often where contestants struggle.

Of the female rags, there is possible scope for a back to lay with Jerry Hall. She looks like she’ll be a decent dancer and comes across as a really good laugh. It helps she is paired with Anton as the SCD audience love him. Given Anton managed to drag the hopeless Nancy Dell’Olio to week 4, Jerry could last much longer. Being American is usually a negative in these shows but Jerry’s self-deprecating wit compensates for this.

Available to back at 110 on Betfair at the time of writing, we think Jerry is worth a poke at that sort of price, while 50-1 in the high street to be Top Female merits a note of some description being handed over the bookie’s counter.

Among the men, we have been seeking alternatives to favourite Louis Smith to potentially be embraced by middle England. We see Smith as appealing to an altogether younger female viewer and this isn’t the demographic that helps you win Strictly.

We get a strong whiff in early clips that Sid Owen is going to prove himself a very competent dancer. He comes across as a down-to-earth cheeky chappy in early VTs. His Eastenders past obviously makes him instantly recognisable to Beeb viewers and you can see him forging a fun relationship with Ola not dissimilar to the one Chris Hollins managed to strike up.

We certainly see terrific value in Unibet‘s quote of 40 Owen to win and 8 to place in the top 3, and the widely-available 14-1 for Owen to be Top Male is probably the best value left in the market ahead of the celebs’ first dances.

As for Vaughan, we are still hopeful he will produce in ballroom under the expert tutelage of Natalie Lowe, but have a nagging fear the fast Latin numbers could prove troublesome. That said, we are happy to have him in the Top Male portfolio.

Also vying for that middle England female vote with Owen and Vaughan has to be Nicky Byrne. We liked his VT with new pro dancer Karen Hauer very much and in the brief clips we have seen of him he looks like a natural dancer.

Ultimately, we still fancy a female to come out on top this series, but in Top Male betting, we would advise backing Byrne at 7-2, Vaughan at 8-1 and Owen at 14-1, and scaling stakes and potential winnings accordingly. So if any 3 of these are Top Male this series, you trouser a very tidy profit. This strategy effectively gives us three bullets to try and take down Smith, and in tv betting’s O.K. Corral we like the odds on our gunslinging skills coming out on top.
Rob Furber

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8 Comments

  1. fiveleaves

    Hi Rob,
    I’m very keen on Sid.
    I thought he looked confident and pretty decent in the group dance and also in his training clip.
    Ola a great partner for him too.
    Vaughan is a good fit with the audience, but eveything points to him being poor when it comes to the dancing and unlike you I haven’t been impressed with what I’ve seen of Nicky.

    I like Pendleton, both in terms of voter appeal and her potential to become a very good dancer.

  2. Rob

    Hi fiveleaves,
    The Twitter vibes certainly haven’t been good for Vaughan. Could be a bit of smoke & mirrors (he says hopefully).
    Another slight concern is MV’s possible comm box commitments for England’s upcoming tour of India.
    Sid is looking an altogether safer investment atm – good luck 🙂

  3. fiveleaves

    A very good start from our lad Sidney 😀

    ofc he needs to prove he can be decent at latin too.
    Plenty seem to have their doubts on DS, but I’m fairly confident he’ll put in another excellent performance in his Salsa next week.

    He’s shown he can remember and execute steps with a fair degree of flair.
    The key to the fast latin is to relax and look like you’re having fun.
    I have few doubts that Sid has the self confidence to be able to do this.

  4. Rob

    Good old Sid – what an encouraging start from the lad 🙂 He threw a few decent shapes in the group dance, pre-series, which was partly what caught the eye about him.
    Like you, pretty confident he’ll be just as competent with fast Latins.
    MV not so good… imagine his fast Latin will be car crash. Some interesting elim prices up btw – good value too… imagine you’ll spot it.
    Will post on elim/b2 market during the week.

  5. fiveleaves

    Cheers.
    I’d not noticed any elim prices on the HS.
    Unfortunately I can’t get more than pennies on with those 3 firms, but hopefully it will draw some money into the betfair market.

  6. fiveleaves

    I’m sure you’ll have an elim market article up soon Rob, so here are the dances we know so far.

    Colin VW
    Lisa VW
    Michael Jive
    Nicky CCC
    Sid Salsa
    Richard CCC
    Dani Salsa
    Kimberley Foxtrot

    Vicky an unknown Ballroom

  7. Rob

    Thanks for those Mr Leaves. These are actually really interesting markets heading towards the first elimination – in terms of trying to factor in scores over the 2 dances. A real shame there isn’t more liquidity on BF 🙁
    Will be doing a preview in next day or 2.

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