Strictly Hotting Up

Nov 10, 2011 by

Our Strictly betting recommendations last week reminded us of those classic old fight scenes in the tv series of Batman, with those villainous bookies on the receiving end of the caped crusader and his faithful ward:

Highest Scorer – Chelsee – 8-1 – ‘Pow!’

Next Elimination – Lulu – 3-1 – ‘Boff!’

Highest Score – Under 37 – 5-2 – ‘Kapow!’

No of tens – 0-2 – 6-4 – ‘Thwack’

Looking ahead to the remainder of this series, things are going to be hotting up in the coming weeks with some high profile contestants guaranteed to bite the dust.
Once Audley exits – and we think he will go this Saturday – we get down to the nitty-gritty of this year’s competition. There will be 8 remaining and so much is going to hinge on how the dances fall among the main protagonists, especially over the following 3 weeks, as the field is reduced from 8 to 7, 7 to 6, and 6 to 5. And then that 5-couple semi-final, with 2 eliminated, is going to be brutal.
There are 14 dances in Strictly: Cha-cha-cha, Foxtrot, Quickstep, Charleston, Argentine Tango, Tango, Viennese Waltz, Waltz, Rumba, Jive, Samba, Salsa, American Smooth and Paso doble.
Last year, the final 5 (in the semi-final) all had to dance Swing as well as one ballroom routine and one Latin. The finalists end up ducking one dance – Kara never danced the samba last year; Matt never danced the Waltz.
So let’s look at which dances the (in theory) remaining contestants will have left after this coming weekend:

Harry: QS, Charleston, VW, Rumba, Salsa, AS, Paso

Jason: Charleston, Argentine tango, Waltz, Jive, Samba, Salsa, AS

Chelsee: Argentine tango, VW, Rumba, Jive, Samba, AS, Paso

Holly: Foxtrot, QS, Charleston, Argentine tango, Waltz, Samba, Paso

Russell: Waltz, VW, QS, Charleston, Argentine tango, Rumba, Jive

Robbie: QS, Charleston, Argentine tango, VW, Rumba, Samba, Salsa

Anita: Cha-cha-cha, Foxtrot, QS, VW, Rumba, Samba, Paso

Alex: Charleston, Argentine tango, Tango, Waltz, Samba, Salsa, AS

We would suggest the rumba, salsa, samba, jive, Argentine tango and paso are the 6 most tricky dances to score highly in. Looking at those lists, there are tricky dances lurking for all, though it is noticeable Holly would have negotiated more than most, as would Harry, though the dangerous rumba still lurks for him. Chelsee has 5 of the theoretical ‘nasties’ to get through but she has shown herself adept at fast Latin, so it’s possibly the rumba and the paso that could prove most troublesome for her. The jive, samba and salsa look Jason’s toughest challenges ahead.
Alex, Russell and Holly will be due ballrooms on the night of November 19th; Robbie, Jason, Harry, Anita and Chelsee will more likely have Latins on balance, though a 4/4 split looks more logical, with one of these 5 taking on a ballroom as well.
With Artem’s injury, Holly will dance with Brendan this weekend, and quite possibly the weekend after. Looking ahead to this Saturday, value looks thin on the ground. We are loathe to flag up odds on shots but with Audley tackling the awkward cha, cha, cha, 8-11 for him to be next eliminated with William Hill seems a fair quote.
Anita, dancing the Argentine tango, and Alex, dancing the jive, look most likely to be lurking at the bottom of the leaderboard with Audley, but we struggle to see Audley’s public vote overtaking either of them.
Chelsee has the foxtrot, Harry the Argentine tango, and Jason the Viennese Waltz. Of those 3, it looks the easier assignment for Jason, and given he has been trading close to Evens in previous weeks to be highest scorer, 9-4 with Ladbrokes looks decent value. Harry is yet to top the leaderboard and if his AT is done to perfection this might be his chance to really shine but on balance it is tough dance to get high scores in, so Jason has to be the call.
Rob Furber

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