Suits You

Sep 20, 2019 by

Suits You

TPTB at Strictly always have a bit of fun in week 1, matching songs thematically with some of the celebs. So this year we have ‘Honey, Honey’ for Emma Barton, who plays Honey Mitchell in Eastenders, ‘I Get A Kick Out Of You’ for former Lioness footballer Alex Scott, ‘She’s A Lady’ for Viscountess Emma Weymouth, ‘Gold’ for Olympic rowing gold medalist James Cracknell, and Euro 96 song ‘Three Lions’ for former England goalkeeper David James, regardless of the fact he wasn’t in the England squad at Euro 96.

Among the market leaders Karim, Alex, Catherine and Saffron look the most likely to impress in week 1. CCC is technically difficult but Karim has had plenty of time to master it, and among the 5 CCCs on the night his may well prove best.

Jive and samba are tough dances straight out of the traps so Emma B and Kelvin look less likely contenders for top spot on the judges’ leaderboard whereas Alex, Saffron and Catherine have the advantage of taking on ballroom dances which are generally easier to achieve high scores with.

It is noticeable that both Saffron and Karim have been given modern pop songs, and it will be interesting to see if the show maintains that treatment throughout the series. By styling both as young this will potentially limit their voter appeal.

In terms of first elimination we need to project forward to week 2 – in Strictly, it is only after week 2 and accumulating leaderboard scores across the first 2 weeks, that phone lines open and viewers get to vote for their favourite. Both David and James will likely face tricky fast Latins in week 2 and based on the limited intel we have to go on at this point, we might expect to see both of them struggle.

Jive and samba are tough dances straight out of the traps so Emma B and Kelvin look less likely contenders for top spot on the judges’ leaderboard

Either of them could yet surprise and turn out to be budding John Travoltas but of the two David does seem a more dispensable signing compared to James. James also looks a better fit with the Strictly core voter. The situation at the foot of the leaderboard could be complicated by the likely presence of Mike Bushell and Anneka Rice both of whom look set to harness a solid vote.

As usual, it will be those celebs in mid-table and below that will be most vulnerable of a bottom 2 appearance, more so if we have a few leaderboard ties. For this reason, Chris Ramsey also looks worthy of 1st elimination consideration. His CCC tomorrow night is unlikely to be among the best, with the possibility of a dull, sober ballroom routine to follow in week 2. Without ramping, or demonstrating a surprisingly high level of dance ability, Michelle could also end up a bottom 2 candidate.

Looking at the song choices, it might be Mike Bushell who is given the pimp slot tomorrow. His jive routine could prove high on entertainment, low on technique. Craig Revel Horwood uses the stock expression ‘dis-as-ter’ whenever he has the chance, there look a few potentially poor routines that risk his ire, and 2-1 with William Hill he says it tomorrow night looks over-priced.

It will be those celebs in mid-table and below that will be most vulnerable of a bottom 2 appearance, more so if we have a few leaderboard ties

Week 1’s song and dance choices:

Anneka and Kevin: Cha Cha Cha to Gloria by Laura Branigan
Alex and Neil: Quickstep to I Get a Kick Out of You by Frank Sinatra
Catherine and Johannes: Viennese Waltz to I Got You Babe by Sonny and Cher
Emma and Anton: Jive to Honey Honey by ABBA
Emma and Aljaž: CCC to She’s a Lady by Tom Jones
Michelle and Giovanni: CCC to So Emotional by Whitney Houston
Saffron and AJ: Tango to Lips Are Moving by Meghan Trainor
Chris and Karen: CCC to Juice by Lizzo
David and Nadiya: Foxtrot to Three Lions by Baddiel, Skinner and Lightning Seeds
Dev and Dianne: Foxtrot to Build Me Up Buttercup by The Foundations
James and Luba: Tango to Gold by Spandau Ballet
Karim and Amy: CCC to If I Can’t Have You by Shawn Mendes
Kelvin and Oti: Samba to La Vida Es Un Carnaval by Celia Cruz
Mike and Katya: Jive to Do You Love Me by The Contours
Will and Janette: Quickstep to Pencil Full of Lead by Paolo Nutini

3 Comments

  1. James

    Hi Rob

    I think there is a little bit of value in Catherine to receive the high score in week 1 at 7/1. The top 20 female celebs have done very well when dancing the VW. It’s unclear as to whether Catherine belongs in this highest category, but I’ve been impressed with the little snippets we’ve seen on social media so far.

    I don’t see much value in the low score market. I am cautiously optimistic that my 16/1 bet that James receives the low score in week 1 will be a winner.

    I’ve placed a couple of small bets on Emma W to receive both the first 10 and first 40 of the series. Of the 16 celebs to have received a perfect score before the final, 13 have been female and 10 have been aged less than 35. I have also placed a bet on Karim to get the first 10 at 11/4, given that 8 of the last 10 winners of this market have been aged between 25 and 30.

    It will be interesting to see which celebs score 27 or higher tonight. To date, 58% (45 out of 77) of celebs who score 27+ in their first dance have gone on to a top four placing, compared with 13% (19 out of 145) of celebs who scored 26 or less.

  2. Stoney

    The perfect start for this year’s winner

  3. Stoney

    Ok so i was out last night so hadn’t seen the show apart from seeing Kelvins odds plummet. Upon watching the show, Under normal circumstances I would be worried about Kelvin coming out to good too soon. But my only worry as previously said was whether he could dance. That question has been answered. Last night’s Samba could be as powerful as Jays jive and he will be tough to beat from this point.

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