Suspicious Ties

Dec 6, 2024 by Rob

‘We can’t go on together, with suspicious minds,’ Elvis crooned back in the day, but as Strictly traders we can and we will, especially when considering how things could play out tomorrow night.

A degree of scepticism starts to creep in after looking at the judges’ leaderboard over the last three weeks and the way in which ties were, seemingly, deliberately constructed to help Pete escape from last place and avoid the dance-off.

Both Chris and Pete will miss the live tour next year so in terms of plausible deniability the show could not be accused of favouring anyone in the event of a Chris vs Pete dance-off tomorrow night.

Our week 11 poll was on the money in predicting the Montell vs Tasha dance-off. It has proved a handy barometer across this series, also finding the bottom two in weeks 3, 4, 5, 8 and 9; on all other occasions identifying one of the bottom two.

Tomorrow night’s semi-final is crunch time in terms of the series outcome. Can Chris navigate safe passage to the Glitterball trophy, or might he fall at the final hurdle?

As crazy as it sounds to contemplate, there is a very plausible judges’ leaderboard + public vote ranking scenario that could see Chris land in the dance-off and go on to lose the dance-off vs Pete, despite topping the public vote.

Learning two dances in a week is a tougher assignment and Chris’s training has been compromised this week due to him filming The Big Fat Quiz Of The Year on Thursday evening.

You would think his VW to the Metallica classic ‘Nothing Else Matters’ would be his higher scoring routine. Maintaining timing throughout the Charleston looks like being especially challenging for Chris and early training footage this week didn’t look great.

Pete has been bottom of the judges’ leaderboard in all of the last three weeks but he could have the chance of a shining moment with his Argentine tango.

Week 11 (Musicals Week) – quarter-final – judges’ leaderboard

JB and Lauren – VW – (6) – 9, 10, 10, 10 = 39
Sarah and Vito – Charleston – (1) – 9, 9, 10, 10 = 38
Tasha and Aljaz – AT – (3) – 9, 10, 9, 10 = 38 – bottom two
Montell and Johannes – Rumba – (2) – 7, 8, 8, 9 = 32 – eliminated
Chris and Dianne – QS – (4) – 7, 8, 8, 9 = 32
Pete and Jowita – Waltz – (5) – 5, 7, 7, 7 = 26

He is the only remaining contestant not to have enjoyed the pimp slot and this AT routine could well be his highest scorer on the night and help him finish above Chris on the judges’ leaderboard.

A lot potentially hinges on the comparative scores of Pete and Chris’s highest scoring routines, as they would be reprised in the event of the two of them meeting in the dance-off.

With Montell now out of the competition, Pete might only be beating Tasha on the public vote heading into the semi-final and Tasha looks teed up for a potentially strong bottom two bounce.

Tasha’s waltz looks a likely 39 or 40 scorer, and she could easily be poised to top the judges’ leaderboard on the night.

Exit polls suggest Sarah has consistently been finishing second behind Chris on the public vote across the series. JB has had a couple of strong weeks leading into the semi-final and if Tasha is top of the leaderboard, the positioning of JB and Sarah below her is going to be crucial regarding the potential dance-off permutations.

JB produced an excellent VW last week and he has started to build some late series momentum.

He has a great piece of music for an impactful paso and that looks his more likely higher scorer. JB’s salsa might feasibly be scored slightly higher than Tasha’s but in terms of their combined scores it looks a shade of odds-on Tasha finishes above JB.

Sarah’s two dances, tango and jive, set to those songs, don’t have the feel of outstanding routines and she might be booked for third place on the judges’ leaderboard.

If we do see a leaderboard order of: Tasha, JB, Sarah, Pete, Chris with, crucially, no ties, it could be game on and such a scenario would make for a compelling semi-final, and much needed in what has been a highly predictable competition so far.

Please do let us know who got your vote(s) when our semi-final exit poll opens at the end of tomorrow night’s show.

Strictly 2024 Exit Poll – Semi-Final

Semi-final dances and songs:

Sarah and Vito Tango to Big Love by Fleetwood Mac and Jive to I’m So Excited by The Pointer Sisters
Tasha and Aljaz Waltz to (You Make Me Feel Like) A Natural Woman by Aretha Franklin and Salsa to Something New by Girls Aloud
Chris and Dianne Charleston to When You’re Smiling by The Blue Vipers Of Brooklyn and Viennese Waltz to Nothing Else Matters by Metallica
JB and Lauren Salsa to Red Alert by Basement Jaxx and Paso Doble to Requiem for a Tower by Clint Mansell
Pete and Jowita Argentine Tango to Bittersweet by Symphony The Verve and Foxtrot to Beyond The Sea by Bobby Darin