Tango & Cash?

Sep 24, 2021 by Rob

And so the fun begins. A bumper 2 hour 21 minute first live show of Strictly tomorrow night, and the first in a 13-episode run leading to the final on December 18.

If we don’t have any withdrawals, the final will be a 4-couple affair which is always worth bearing in mind when you are placing each-way, Top 3, Top Female and Top Male wagers – you can end up having complicated dead-heat rules applied to your bet due to the BBC never revealing the placings behind the winner.

The Outright market on the Betfair Exchange has already seen plenty of lively action with Rose Ayling-Ellis, Rhys Stephenson and John Whaite all well backed.

Initial tissue favourite, Tom Fletcher, has been friendless while among the perceived outsiders Nina Wadia has attracted plenty of money.

The launch show group dance last Saturday offered a few early pointers and always comes under the magnifying glass for serious Strictly traders:

The week 1 dances and songs are as follows:

AJ and Kai: Jive to Gold Dust by DJ Fresh
Judi and Graziano: American Smooth to Chain of Fools by Aretha Franklin
Katie and Gorka: Tango to Black Hole by Griff
Nina and Neil: Samba to Mi Gente by J Balvin, Willy William featuring Beyoncé
Rose and Giovanni: Jive to Shake It Off by Taylor Swift
Tilly and Nikita: Waltz to Consequences by Camila Cabello
Sara and Aljaž: Cha Cha Cha to The Boss by Diana Ross
John and Johannes: Tango to Blue Monday by New Order
Adam and Katya: Cha Cha Cha to Beggin’ by Måneskin
Rhys and Nancy: Viennese Waltz to End Of The Road by Boys II Men
Dan and Nadiya: Quickstep to Everybody Needs Somebody by The Blues Brothers
Tom and Amy: Cha Cha Cha to September by Earth, Wind & Fire
Greg and Karen: American Smooth to That’s Life by Frank Sinatra
Robert and Dianne: Cha Cha Cha to Rasputin by Boney M
Ugo and Oti: Samba to Iko Iko (My Bestie) by Justin Wellington ft Small Jam

The CCC is always the early go-to dance on Strictly, and a very tough one for the celebs to cope with first up. There are four CCCs there which will need to be evenly spread across the show. Looking at the music, Robert & Dianne, Adam & Katya and Tom & Amy have drawn the more iconic tracks.

Then we have a couple of waltzes, jives, sambas, tangos and American Smooths, and a Quickstep. It wouldn’t be surprising to see John take the week 1 pimp slot with his ‘Blue Monday’ tango. Also vying for the pimp could be AJ with jive. AJ may eclipse Rose in the jive comparison stakes so there could be room for Rose’s price to drift. Here’s a story about how Rose is learning the dances.

Rhys has VW which means he will probably have more chance to impress in week 2 with his first Latin routine. Nina could well be one of the surprises of week 1 performing samba. It’s a tough dance to score well with but could suit Ugo pretty well too.

We also need to project ahead to week 2 with a view to first elimination and think about who will have Latin and who will have ballroom on the more significant show when vote lines open and people vote for their favourite.

Greg has a classic Sinatra track for his AS tomorrow night which means a potentially respectable start for him but he could be facing up to a tricky Latin and some tough love from the judging panel in week 2. Judi also has AS to start with which means a fast Latin likely awaits for her in week 2 and a routine she will no doubt throw herself into, probably earning the plaudits of the panel.

Tilly has a nice track for a dreamy waltz and should be equipped for a respectable Latin routine in week 2. Dan is going to be better suited to ballroom and should do a decent job with his QS but could have a tougher time in week 2 if handed a fast Latin routine.

There will be surprises and there will be market over-reactions tomorrow night which is why we all love trading Strictly. In terms of week 1 highest score William Hill has a market and Rhys looks opposable despite his VW likely to be top notch. Thinking about the potential pimp slot earner, John and AJ could be worth an investment.