Tango & Crash
It’s getting to a pivotal stage in the Strictly run and this series feels very much on a knife-edge regarding how it plays out from here. And as Aston discovered, the wheels can fall off very quickly if you are persona non grata.
News broke this week Jonnie is touring next year which perhaps explains why he was given preferential treatment last week in the battle of the foxtrots with Ruth and outscored her.
Susan is touring too and the expectation is, her paso will be one of the show-stealers at Blackpool, very likely put on late, and will help her to avoid the bottom 2 with a ’Strictly Ballroom’ idea Kevin has been pitching for years.
News broke this week Jonnie is touring next year which perhaps explains why he was given preferential treatment last week in the battle of the foxtrots
Davood also has paso and looks likely to be on earlier so he could be vulnerable to land in the bottom 2. However, having looked out of favour in the early weeks of this series, Davood has turned a corner in the last couple of shows with the hint of a change of treatment from TPTB.
Both Mollie and Gemma endured tough critiques and harsh scores last week. The fact remains there is very little in it in terms of dance ability between Davood, Joe, Gemma and Mollie and it is really in the hands of TPTB which two among these four makes the final.
This may eventually be decided by who is touring and who is not – and series-long treatment up to this point would suggest Joe will be touring.
Mollie appears to be gaining a degree of goodwill and you sense she is set for a strong week dancing Charleston which has looked good in training. There has been a distinct lack of training footage for Gemma’s AS but set to ‘Downtown’ it should resonate with viewers.
In theory, both Mollie and Gemma should be comfortably outscoring Jonnie’s tango tomorrow night. It’s a case of whether or not the judges are going to actively pursue a bottom 2 bounce for Jonnie. Given he is touring, this might be in the script but if this is not forthcoming he looks a strong favourite to be eliminated.
The other big dilemma in this series is trying to figure out if and when Alexandra and Debbie might fall into the dance-off because this will have a big impact on their Outright odds.
There was an interesting quote in this Craig ‘half-term report’ story regarding Alexandra: ’She needs to make sure the public is behind her’. This is perhaps the strongest evidence yet she is struggling on the public vote.
It would come as no surprise to see Joe’s routine granted the pimp slot and another high score awarded to him
Alex’s QS might be a little forgettable on the night at Blackpool but we can probably bank on 9s and 10s for her to keep her safe at the top of the leaderboard this week.
Debbie, meanwhile, has the always tough samba to negotiate and a Spice Girls medley sounds far from ideal. If she finds herself harshly scored and drops down to maybe 3rd on the leaderboard or lower she could easily find herself dragged down into the dance-off, especially if we have some ties.
Joe continues to be the flavour of the month and has been talked up and scored up virtually every week. On paper, salsa looks a tough assignment – and he didn’t look great in training footage on last night’s ITT – but it would come as no surprise to see this routine granted the pimp slot and another high score awarded to him.
The good news for those opposing the front two in the market is both Alex and Debbie are marmite characters and this sort of story is potentially playing into the hands of their rivals. Whoever joins them in the final might yet end up in the box-seat to grab the series win.
Jonnie really should be a goner tomorrow night if they play it straight but if they actively seek to encourage a bottom 2 bounce for him we could be in line for another shock. As always it’s all going to be down to the judges’ script and how they ordain to order the leaderboard in a series that remains perplexing to unravel.
Whoever joins Alexandra and Debbie in the final might yet end up in the box-seat to grab the series win
Blackpool songs and dances:
Alex and Gorka – Quickstep to The Gold Diggers’ Song (We’re In The Money) from ‘42nd Street’
Debbie and Giovanni – Samba to Spice Girls Medley (Wannabe / Who Do You Think You Are)
Gemma and Aljaz – American Smooth to Downtown by Petula Clark
Mollie and AJ – Charleston to Wings by Little Mix
Susan and Kevin – Paso Doble to Scott & Fran’s Paso Doble from ‘Strictly Ballroom’
Davood and Nadiya – Paso Doble to Live And Let Die by Paul McCartney and Wings
Joe and Katya – Salsa to Ride On Time by Black Box
Jonnie and Oti – Tango to Sweet Dreams by Eurythmics
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Joe looking good for tonight’s pimp.
Looks like another favourable late slot for Joe. Gemma back in the game.
Looks like another favourable late slot for the Burke. Gemma back in the game.
Have to stick with my assertion Joe isn’t nearly good enough to win this. I accept he’s popular but been overmarked in so many weeks and I don’t really understand why given I still trust they want a female winner.
To my eyes Davood has much more potential as a dancer and a proper physical presence that Joe lacks, a good dance from him just looks so much better than one of Joes.
I realise I’m still in the minority but Alex is head and shoulders above the rest and still the most likely winner and a huge green for me. Gemma my only other.
Thank god, Gemma has FINALLY justified my faith in sticking with her. As I hoped (and prayed) she turned up on Blackpool week just like Abbey Clancy did and has established herself as a major contender. Just need confirmation that she’s touring now.
Apparently Jonnie has left in the dance off against Debbie. Should shake the odds up a bit.
I think the layers along with Rob of course saw the possibility of Debbie being in the Dance Off. She traded at over 4 on Betfair before suspension. Maybe time to take some Alex profit when the market reopens
Weren’t all the last few winners in the dance off at least once? I wonder if the market will wise up to that re: Debbie.
Off the top of my head Jay wasn’t, but Ore, Caroline and Abby were
It may after a while but as she was trading at 3 before the show and 4.2 ish for a while before suspension just on the possibility of the dance off, then I would have to expect her to hit 5+ at least on re-opening
Yep 3-2 in favour of winners being in the dance off once since 2012. None of those were in Blackpool though, I believe Caroline and Ore were both week 7 and Abbey week 6. In terms of the actual competition I don’t think it means much although hopefully trading odds shift appropriately to suit everyone’s books. I have a theory I’d like to run by you all. Does anyone wonder if the recent high scoring of Davood is because TPTB know his vote isn’t the strongest (certainly not compared to Joe) and they feel like if they are to have a male in the finale, he would be far easier to control and neutralise on the night than Joe would be?
I can see some merit in your theory but it is dangerous if it is based on the assumption that TPTB want a female winner. You might then be retro fitting to reinforce that view.
My dilemma and question is why Joe has been so consistently over marked and ramped? If I understood that then this series would be far clearer. I initially thought it may have been related to the need to get Aston out but of course the support has continued and in some ways increased since Aston’s departure.
As I have said I really don’t think he’s good enough to win but if he reaches the final and Katya choreographs an amazing show dance then I would have to cover him, something I really want to avoid to maximise my profits
So any theories on Joe? that dance on Saturday was worthy of 6 or 7 imo so they couid have been much harder. 2 x 9 was laughable from Bruno and Shirley
Hi Bruce. Given that the BBC have to recruit from the same pool of shows each year to fill out their cast (EastEnders, Casualty, Holby, BBC Breakfast), it is in their best interest that the celebrities from these programs enjoy their time on Strictly, and get to pass this on to their colleagues.
The BBC will also want at least one high finishing, high scoring male celebrity on the SCD Live Tour each year. I think that Aston and Davood are both unlikely to tour, which leaves Joe as the default selection.
Highly plausible. I believe Joe is the most popular contestant on the show. Its also likely hes topped at least 1 phone in recent weeks. I can definately see Davood being someone that they want to keep in to even the scores a bit. But if they really wanted to keep Joes vote in check it would be easier to mark him down a bit, rather than give another male a big surge towards the final. Considering the general consensus is they want a female winner.
Debbie, Joe & Davood each have only one Latin dance remaining now. They will have to keep this dance in reserve for a potential semi-final, so it is clear that all three of them will have to perform ballroom dances in each of the next two weeks.
Debbie is starting to show a few signs of wear and tear, however going back to ballroom will likely put her back on track. Her last ballroom dance remains the only ’40’ of the series so far.
Nine of the fourteen Strictly champions were never in the ‘bottom two’. Natasha (week 3), Alesha (week 10), Abbey (week 6) and Caroline (week 7) fell into the ‘bottom two’ once. Ore is the only champion to appear in the ‘bottom two’ twice (week 7 & week 11).
Worth bearing in mind they have been known to fudge things in the sf in terms of Latin/ballroom distinction. For instance, series 10 – Dani & Vincent danced AS & AT. And last year Ore & Joanne danced QS and AT.
AT, Charleston and paso have all been accepted as the Latin component in the past. They have all danced paso this year and only Alex has Charleston left, but they can all play the AT card in the sf outside of Alex.
Thankfully I put quite a bit of money on The Lovely Debbie McGee last night, but she’s crashed to 4.0-ish since then. Anyone know what might be behind this?
Hi Tim. I think Debbie’s price contracting again is due to a lot of traders having the same idea as you. There is a consistent market over-reaction to a b2 appearance from a perceived front-runner when we have seen many times over the years eventual winners bounce back from a dance-off appearance.
Also, the rumour mill suggests Argentine tango for Debbie on Saturday which looks the sort of thing she will do a great job with.
We are at the same stage that Ed Balls went out last year. You would think Susan should go this weekend, but I have the feeling she may just avoid the dance off for another week.