The Feelgood Factor
We have the (almost) confirmed pairings list for Strictly 2024. Don’t read on if you would rather watch tomorrow night’s launch show in blissful ignorance.
After all the scandal and negative press coverage that has sullied the show, this 20th season of Strictly badly needs to rediscover the feel-good factor. A thought that naturally leads into the return to the show of Amy Dowden, her breast cancer ordeal already the subject of a BBC documentary.
Amy is paired with former JLS band member JB Gill (37) who won the Christmas Special all the way back in 2012. It looks significant she has been given someone who has clear contender status rather than a series also-ran.
Shayne Ward (39) is already being described as a ’snake hips’ in training, and is likely to be one of the series leading lights on the dance floor. His pro partner Nancy made the semi-final with Rhys Stephenson in 2021 and Will Mellor in 2022. This pairing looks teed up for her to potentially break her semi-final hoodoo and make the final for the first time.
After all the scandal and negative press coverage that has sullied the show, this 20th season of Strictly badly needs to rediscover the feel-good factor
Former Love Island contestant Tasha Gouri (26) is paired with the returning Aljaz who previously established himself as one of the most popular male pros on the show and won back in 2013 paired with Abbey Clancy.
Hearing impaired Tasha is expected to be one of the series ringers while Aljaz offers some feel-good ingredients on his return so this looks another pairing with the potential to make the final.
The Powers That Be (TPTB) have been surprisingly generous to last year’s runner-up Nikita and series winner Vito, pairing them with Sam Quek (35) and Sarah Hadland (53) respectively.
Oti Mabuse achieved back-to-back series wins paired with Kelvin Fletcher and Bill Bailey although that appeared to happen more by accident than design. There are plenty of hints Sarah could be this year’s Amanda Abbington and prove herself a top all-rounder so Vito can have hope of emulating Oti.
Former Olympic gold medalist in field hockey Sam Quek (35) has some parallels with Helen Skelton (2022 finalist). She’s had presenting duties on the BBC, she’s juggling the demands of motherhood, and she is the type who succeeds with everything she puts her mind to. Nikita has established himself as a popular male pro and this looks another pairing that can go far.
Eastenders actor Jamie Borthwick (30) arrives hot on the heels of his win in last year’s Christmas Special:
He appears to have excellent rhythm and musicality and is paired with pro newcomer Michelle Tsiakkas who remains an unknown. Jowita won in her first season paired with Hamza Yassin in 2022 but similar to Oti’s back-to-back wins that’s an exception to the general rule.
Former Olympic sprinter and bobsledder, and now Gladiator, Montell Douglas (38) could well prove herself to be a good mover. She’ll be prepared to graft and should have a strong core. A pairing with Johannes is something of a surprise as among the taller pros you might have thought Kai would have been the strongest match, but Kai finds himself benched this year.
Swimming gold medalist Tom Dean (24) brings the Summer Olympic spirit to this series. He’s tall (1.94m) and paired with Nadiya you can envisage them looking elegant in ballroom. Fast Latin numbers could prove more troublesome.
Blind comedian Chris McCausland (43), has plenty of Scouse wit and is always good value on panel shows like Would I Like To You? How can a blind man tell if he’s dancing well or not? Dianne is tasked with teaching Chris but one thing’s for sure: the audience will be rooting for Chris and a feel-good journey could easily develop.
Former pop star Toyah Wilcox (66) can err on the kooky side as evidenced by a a series of bizarre home-made videos she released during lockdown. As an older woman there is scope for her to harness a decent vote if she can improve across the series. Her pro partner Neil has often found himself on the subs’ bench. His best finish was fifth place partnering Alex Scott in his first series in 2019.
The audience will be rooting for Chris and a feel-good journey could easily develop
Dr Punam Krishan (41) is a Scottish NHS doctor often appearing on the BBC Morning Live show. A somewhat obscure signing, she is the darkest of dark horses paired with long-standing male pro Gorka, who has never won the series. She might, just might be capable of springing a surprise.
Pete Wicks (36) discovered fame on TOWIE. With his long hair he could bring something of the swaggering showman to the dancefloor and he has drawn one of the best female pros in Jowita. In a series which looks like featuring plenty of dancing talent among the celebs he could also disappear into mid-table obscurity.
Operatic tenor Wynne Evans (51) is best known for fronting those horrendous Go Compare ads. Like Pete, he has struck gold in being paired with Katya Jones so if he has even a modicum of dance ability Katya is sure to get the most out of him and he could prove surprisingly light on his feet for a portly, older bloke.
Former footballer and now pundit Paul Merson (56) is paired with Strictly veteran Karen Hauer. There is talk of Paul being unhappy with his first song choice of ‘Vindaloo’ and it requiring a re-take of the segment we see tomorrow night when that news is broken to him. It hints that Paul is going to be pigeonholed and his run on the series could be short-lived.
TV presenter Nick Knowles (61) says he got inspired to do the show after learning Argentine tango in Buenos Aires. He does have some dancing siblings and could have some hidden talent lurking but a pairing with Luba doesn’t scream contender.
Dr Punam Krishan is a somewhat obscure signing and might, just might be capable of springing a surprise
Pre-lives, there look to be a clear front six this year – JB, Tasha, Shayne, Sam, Sarah and Jamie – but none of their pairings look bulletproof and, as always, there is scope for surprises.
Few saw Hamza Yassin as a contender, pre-lives, in 2022, and last year’s winner, Ellie Leach, as much as we knew she would be a good dancer, didn’t have the look of a Plan A.
Rest assured the group dance that climaxes tomorrow night’s launch show will be scrutinised in minute detail by traders and market fluctuations will ensue on the Betfair Exchange, fluctuations you can take advantage of.
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Hi Rob
I am very much looking forward to the return of Strictly, and find myself agreeing with much of what you have written here.
Tasha’s natural ability, teamed up with Aljaz’s proficiency at ballroom makes them very likely finalists. I suspect her disability will be largely overshadowed by Chris’, and as the person most likeliest to receive the ‘ringer’ tag, I don’t see Tasha gaining enough new support to end up topping the public vote.
Temperament wise, JB seems a close match with many of Amy’s previous dance partners. No doubt he will also prove himself to be a good dancer, but does this partnership have that extra bit of ‘Strictly sparkle’ that differentiates losing finalists from winners? In a ‘normal’ year, I would be happy to oppose them, but you would need to be brave (or foolhardy) not to suspect TPTB will be pushing hard for an Amy win, and the ‘feel good factor’ that would provide.
Initially, I had Shayne down as a mid-series elimination; however all reports from the training room seem to suggest that he will be one of the front runners. He does though turn 40 next month, which would make him one of the older winners of the show (younger only than Bill Bailey & Joe McFadden).
Jamie has the potential to be another strong contender, but much will depend on how well Michelle can choreograph and teach. She is far from being the first pro to start off ‘on the bench’, but it seems perplexing that she didn’t take part in either of the last two Christmas specials either.
It would be unusual to see three male celebrities in the final this year (with it happening only twice previously), and should one of JB, Shayne or Jamie slip up, Sam and Sarah seem the likeliest beneficiaries.
Sam looks teed up to be this year’s ‘journey’ contestant. My main concern over her chances is whether she comes across as too competitive to receive widespread public support.
Only six previous celebrities aged 50+ have gotten as far as the quarter finals before (Ann Widdecombe, Pamela Stephenson, Debbie McGee, Bill Bailey, Nigel Harman & Annabel Croft). Despite this stat, I am still pretty high on Sarah’s chances. Previous dance experience should mean that she gets off to a fast start; and given that she has run marathons before and describes herself as hyperactive, I am optimistic that she can maintain a high standard throughout the series.
Of the others, Tom and Montell both seem likely to be in the mix for a trip to Blackpool. Gorka’s previous partners have either made an early exit, or made it to the final; and I can easily see Dr Punam fitting that pattern as well. I have made her green in my book at the high odds that were available.
I expect Chris to reach the mid way point of the series, but eventually his low placing on the leaderboard will lead to his luck running out. Pete seems perfectly suited to contend strongly on CBB or IAC, but would appear to be a poor fit for Strictly success.
I wish Toyah, Wynne, Nick & Paul all the best, and good luck in avoiding the fast Latin routines for as long as is possible!
So my prediction for the ‘final four’ is JB, Sarah, Shayne & Tasha; and if those were to be the finalists, I suspect TPTB will get their wish, with JB & Amy holding the Glitterball trophy aloft.
Thanks for posting your thoughts, James. I think my main worry heading into this 20th season is the spectre of ruthless executions each week which the market will very easily spot and hence, elim prices will be poor, if following the same pattern as last year.
It seems a lifetime ago now when you could find an Aston Merrygold at 100-1 for elimination live in-running, and any other double figure odds elims. Of course, we have to live in hope of those sort of opportunities cropping up again this year but it feels to me like they’ve become an endangered species due to the heavy-handed level of control exerted by TPTB. Nothing seems to be left to chance any more.