Time To Face The Music
Last Saturday provided another great value elimination winner in the form of Helen advised here at 9-2. The show played out virtually precisely as predicted.
Kellie and Kevin were given a show-stopping musical number clearly with the intention of boosting Kellie’s public vote. Georgia’s pv vulnerability was finally exposed from trap 1 in the running order as she fell into the bottom 2.
Georgia most likely came last or 2nd last on the public vote with Kellie definitely beating her on the pv. If Georgia was second last then Anita would have needed to have polled in the top 2. Anita certainly polled in the top 3.
Whichever way you look at it, Georgia and Giovanni, as suggested following a series of favourable spots in the running order and inflated scores during the previous 5 weeks, are struggling to connect with Strictly voters.
Of course, what is now guaranteed is a massive Georgia ramp in the semi-final. There was a surprise last night with Georgia’s Argentine tango changed to the cha cha cha. Her AT looked teed up for a 38-40 whereas CCC is a tricky dance to achieve that level of scoring with granted the judges playing it straight.
Here is the full list of dances and songs as they currently stand, with no confirmation of Georgia’s CCC music at time of writing:
Anita & Gleb will dance the Foxtrot to Frank Sinatra’s ‘New York, New York’ as well as perform a Salsa to ‘Feel This Moment’ by Pitbull feat. Christina Aguilera.
Georgia & Giovanni will dance a Viennese Waltz to ‘Runaway’ by The Corrs plus they will dance a Cha Cha (music track TBC).
Jay & Aliona are going to Charleston to ‘Doctor Jazz’ from musical Jelly’s Last Jam and perform a Viennese Waltz to Bryan Adams’ ‘Have You Ever Really Loved A Woman’?
Katie & Anton are dancing the Waltz to ‘O Mio Babbino Caro’ by Puccini as well as dance the Charleston to ‘Too Darn Hot’ from the musical Kiss Me Kate.
Kellie & Kevin are performing the American Smooth to ‘Let’s Face The Music And Dance’ by Irving Berlin plus they will perform a Rumba to ‘Songbird’ by Eva Cassidy.
Among the 3 waltzes to be performed by Georgia, Jay and Katie, the stand-out one musically has to be Katie’s to Puccini. Could this even see Anton achieve his first ever individual 10 for a dance on Strictly? He must have his best chance ever.
It also looks telling that he and Katie have been allowed to dodge the samba. It all points to producers being happy for them to make the final. There will surely be references made to this being Anton’s first chance of making the Strictly final. This, in itself, will be a motivator for Katie and Anton’s fans to rally behind them.
We are sure to see some leaderboard ordering on Saturday and regardless of her dances, it looks highly likely Georgia will be placed top of the leaderboard to ensure her safety.
Jay has 2 potentially strong-scoring dances in the VW and Charleston, though he doesn’t have the best song choices. His rumba proved a top-scoring triumph on Saturday and there is a sense of the judges getting thoroughly behind him now, probably because he is topping the pv.
You can as good as book both Georgia and Jay for the final now. Kellie and Anita, meanwhile, look the 2 contestants who have the toughest dance assignments.
The American Smooth should be fine for Kellie but the rumba will likely see her overall points total suffer and she will be in jeopardy of propping up Saturday’s judges’ leaderboard.
Anita arguably has the hardest 2 dances in the foxtrot and salsa to score well with in relation to her semi-final opponents. Much like Kellie dancing rumba, salsa is a massive red flag in terms of Anita’s overall scoring potential on Saturday night. And while Anita has been polling well Katie has probably consistently polled even better over the course of the series.
In the semi-final dance-off, they get to reprise their choice of dance, which usually equates to their better scoring dance in the main show. If making a prediction pre-show, the most likely judges’ leaderboard order based on these dances would be:
1st Georgia
2nd Jay
3rd Katie
4th Anita
5th Kellie
Pre-show an Anita vs Kellie dance-off looks the most likely scenario on Saturday night. Kellie’s AS vs Anita’s foxtrot potentially with Anita booked for the Strictly Tour and Kellie not. You would have to think it is long odds-on Anita would be saved assuming her and Gleb get through the dance-off without making a disastrous error.
If Anita does manage to outpoll Katie and Katie ends in the dance-off vs Kellie, a waltz that looks on paper such a strong one will be very hard to beat. The key element on Saturday to keep an eye on is how Katie’s waltz, Anita’s foxtrot and Kellie’s AS are scored in relation to each other, bearing in mind Len has the casting vote in the dance-off if it is 2-1 going to him.
Jake Wood went in the semi-final last year and in each of the last 3 years there has been a semi-final ‘buffer’ present almost to protect the show’s most valuable assets: in 2012 it was Lisa Riley, in 2013 Patrick Robinson.
In a nutshell and based on all known evidence it points to Kellie being the most likely contestant to be eliminated. There was some 7-4 available earlier in the week. She is now a best-priced 5-4 but given she looks an odds-on shot to go, that still represents a shade of value.
Advised:
Next elimination – Kellie – 4pt win – 5-4 – Coral
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Is there a chance if Anita has come 1st or 2nd in the pv, they would eliminate her, if she were the dance off, to avoid a possible threat to Jay in the final?
Hi Stuart. I don’t think they will be remotely worried about Anita’s polling figure. It will be very easy for them to direct the voting in the final when voting ramps up significantly.
The signs are they are fully behind Jay. They need to be seen to be backing the winner and I think one voteable guy in the final vs 3 women is a massive in-built advantage for Jay.
Gloria Gaynor’s ‘I Will Survive’ for Georgia’s CCC. Georgia has been suffering with illness, it would appear. I think if they do end up scoring Georgia down it will be done under the auspices of seeking a sympathy vote for her.
Agree with you again this week Rob…..the early 7/4 for Kellie next elimination looked very generous.
The Georgia illness and dance change is a bit of a curveball though…..with limited training time available for them,it will be very interesting to see how she is scored….like you I’d anticipated her toppling the LB to ensure her spot in the final,that may prove more difficult to justify now.
At this early stage,prior to any training vids,it looks like possibly an Anita v Kellie or Georgia v Kellie B2 so any odds against for Kellie still looks value.
Hi Rob. I see that Ladbrokes have priced up a market on who will finish in 4th place. Do you see any value in the prices on offer?
Hi James. I have seen that market and there is definitely some value there if you think Kellie is a goner on Sat.
If you think Katie is going to make the final, one way to play it would be to take the 5-2 with Lads she finishes 4th and also back Katie with Coral at 11-2 in the ‘without Jay’ market e/w.
You can scale your stakes accordingly for a similar win if Katie finishes 4th and if she dead-heats for 2nd (or wins).
If she dead-heats for 2nd you’ll get your full place stake paid out at 11-8 (which is a better return than Katie’s top 3 price of around Evens), and you will get half your win stake paid out at 11-2. So if you staked, say, £20 e/w at 11-2, your return would be, I think, £112.50 (if the odds settler has done his or her sums right).
Place, say, £40 win at 5-2 on Katie to finish 4th & you would make a profit of either £60 or £72.50.
Of course, the shrewdness of these bets hinges on someone other than Katie being eliminated on Sat 🙂
Jay and Helen will Tour. Line-up completed, including Jake Wood:
http://www.standard.co.uk/showbiz/celebrity-news/strictly-come-dancing-2015-helen-george-and-jay-mcguiness-complete-tour-lineup-a3134101.html
Hi Rob. That makes last weeks scores, with Kellie scoring 36 and Helen 34, even more peculiar. If both had scored 35, the likely b2 would have been Kellie vs Helen or Kellie vs Georgia. In either scenario Kellie would have lost out, and the SF would have contained the four on the tour plus Katie.
I suspect the producers would want the series champion to be on the tour, so they must feel confident that Katie is not a serious threat to win the show.
Hi James. Given the greater scrutiny the show has been under, they probably did not mind Helen going out in the qf for the sake of the show not looking so fixed.
Jay, I think, is the key name here. We now know for sure he is touring and given his recent treatment there is a sense he is topping the pv and the show will continue to back him all the way to the win. Placings, I think, are much less important to them than Jay winning.
Agree with Rob, it’s all about the winner rather than the placings. Last season for example, the reason Jake was booted off in the semis wasn’t because they wanted more celebs touring in the final. It was because had he got to the final, he stood a big chance of winning, especially as he would have got to perform his salsa, arguably the most memorable dance of the series in the final. The tour doesn’t look half as attractive without the winning celebrity on it.
I agree they’ll likely get more behind the very likely winner Jay and they’d be happy with Anton making T3. But what would be their motivation for helping Georgia?
Jay, Georgia, Anita for the tour. No word on Katie or Kellie so presumably not them.
I can accept your analysis Rob that Georgia has been favoured and the general widespread opinion that Anita has been undermarked. I haven’t seen it myself, either through not following closely enough or being knowledgeable enough, a bit like a casual viewer I guess.
But does anyone know why? Because Anita is very much a BBC girl (and Georgia, not doing much now, was a Corrie girl).
Hi Henry. One possibility is, marking Anita down to encourage more support for her. Certainly that 6 from Craig last week would have kick-started her fans into action.
I think Georgia’s ballroom dances have mostly been good but her general over-scoring appears to have been carried out with a view to trying to keep her safe at the top of the leaderboard.
I guess the big question heading into tonight is whether Anita is generating so much support now, she is outpolling Katie, which would put Katie in jeopardy of the dance-off.
A Katie vs Kellie dance-off is the trickiest one to call given both of them are non-tourers. You would think it would go down very, very badly with Strictly viewers if they did kick Katie and Anton off the show in favour of Kellie. This is why I think Kellie is the call for next elim but it’s not entirely clear cut.
If Georgia does make it through to the final, this would be the sixth consecutive year that a female celebrity in their mid 20s makes the final, following Kara (27), Chelsee (23), Dani (23), Abbey (27) and Frankie (25).
They’ve been ramming down our throats the fact that Anton has never made the final for weeks now. Everything shy of asking viewers to vote for them. I can’t see them kicking Anton out at this point especially for Kellie unless Katie makes a glaringly obvious dance off mistake.
Kellie still evens at Betfair, for me personally that’s still very good value.
One more point to make that I forgot about is that Anton has never had a ten in his SCD career. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see it for their Waltz tonight and wouldn’t it be fitting if it was head judge Len who dished it out. Would be another feel good story, not to mention the perfect dance off protection for Katie if she does end up in the bottom two as well.
Hi M8. I agree with you there. Anton is long overdue a 10 and the waltz to Puccini looks, on paper, like a routine crying out for some maximum scores.
Hi M8, I agree that it would be fitting to see Anton receive his first ever ten. If not tonight, then surely for the VW he is likely to perform in the final.
Speaking of tens, I see that Craig has awarded at least one score of ten in each of the past eight semi-finals. Which dance do we think will get the Craig ten this year? My guess would be on Georgia’s VW.
Peculiarly, of the nine celebrities who received a Craig ten in the semi-final, only one (Caroline Flack) subsequently went on to become the series winner.
Hi James, I like that Craig stat! I’d agree that Georgia would be the favourite to receive it if we see him give one out, simply to protect her further from the bottom two. It Takes Two also did a little feature in the week about Craig’s ten paddle “going missing” even asking twitter viewers to get involved with the hashtag #FindThePaddle. It could be nothing but it perhaps could be little indication that it may be brought out tonight as you suspect James.
It is worth remembering that he gave Natalie Gumede a ten in the very first dance of the 2013 semi final, but it wasn’t enough to prevent her dropping into the dance off.
The running order tonight will be interesting, Georgia went first last week and with her falling ill this week I can imagine she is a good bet to go late on tonight. The last two seasons have seen a dance off appearance for the couple dancing first (Natalie and Jake) Out of our semi finalists, Katie last went first in week 6, Anita week 8, Jay week 9 and Kellie in week 10.
A few more clues: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p03bvxcd
Well, safe to say that night didn’t go as expected. Maybe they are willing to kill the Anton dream after all?
Looks that way M8. Some blatant manipulation of scoreboard and trying to sway the pv. If Katie polls top 2 she could still be safe though.
Anita v Katie
ANITA OUT
Very strange result to me. I was thinking they could save Kellie but they even protected her from b2. Then kicking Anita just to show they don’t care about the tour lol.
Yep, certainly surprising Boki as they couldn’t have been more blatant putting Katie away. Can only think her and Anton nailed their dance-off, Anita made mistakes and Len decided to vote fairly on what he saw in the dance-off along with at least one other judge.
Anita v Katie
ANITA OUT
Sorry to see Anita go having tipped her in my initial pre-lives analysis at big odds. They really manipulated things tonight to a distasteful degree. Should have just scored fairly, commented fairly and not tried to sway the pv so much.
Georgia’s CCC was poor, Kellie’s rumba was poor, but they were intent on putting Kellie at the top of the leaderboard and ensuring Georgia’s safety too.
It will be easier to judge when we see the dance off but it’s another tick for the BBC’s let’s convince everyone there’s no fix campaign by saving the non tourer over the tourer in the semi final. They must be confident that they can control Anton’s vote in the final with scoring like they did tonight. The dance that annoyed me the most tonight was Kellie’s rumba. I was worried when I saw they had the pimp slot but the over scoring of that rumba was a disgrace and was the nail in the Kellie to be eliminated coffin.
Yep, the scoring for that rumba was pretty scandalous, M8, as was Georgia’s CCC which had so little content, and very basic steps.
It’s laughable the way they decide to ignore errors with some while focus on them with others according to their pre-planned agenda.
I have found the treatment of Anita series-long quite bizarre. 4 for Katie’s Charleston was as ridiculous as the 8s and 9s for Kellie’s rumba and the 8s and 9s for Georgia’s CCC.
At least they were consistent – Anita underscored and kicked out at 1st opportunity and Kellie continuously protected. As you wrote before “We know Anita and Katie are the two most popular female dancers with the Strictly voters, so it would be an odd decision to deny either a final place” but they did it anyway.
Hi Rob. Things we know about the semi-final public vote:
1) Katie did not win the PV.
2) Anita was either 3rd, 4th or 5th in the PV.
3) Neither Jay or Georgia finished last in the PV.
4) Anita received fewer votes than Jay and Georgia.
That last point is interesting, as we know that in the quarter final PV, Anita finished at least three places higher than Georgia.
This suggests that over the past few weeks there has been relatively few votes between the remaining women, and factors such as a b2 bounce or some perceived OTT criticism from the judges has had a big impact on the weekly PV placings.
It seems likely that Jay has been regularly topping the weekly vote in recent weeks. The question is whether his lead over the women is moderate or substantial.
Hi James. I agree the Strictly vote is likely very fluid. Low voting figs enable them to manipulate things easily.
It was a Cowell-esque night the way they put Katie and Anita away while pushing Kellie to the top of the leaderboard and ensuring Georgia maintained a solid vote.
The big Kellie push of the last 2 weeks has been done with a view to ensuring her safety. Maybe Kev has it written in his contract he has to make the final.
In terms of Katie top 3 and top female investments I am hoping they play it a lot fairer in the final, and are a bit more even-handed in their praise and scoring.
Jay & Aliona will not be reprising their jive in the final. A bit of a shock and has to be seen as a negative.
Indeed. Radio Times article here; http://www.radiotimes.com/news/2015-12-14/jay-mcguiness-wont-dance-his-pulp-fiction-inspired-jive-again-in-the-strictly-final
Perhaps producers are intending to level the field in order to make the result less of a foregone conclusion? Still a very baffling decision imo.
Georgia and Giovanni will be performing their Showdance to ‘Fix You’ by Coldplay.
Jay and Aliona will be performing their Showdance to ‘Can’t Feel My Face’ by The Weeknd.
Katie and Anton will be performing their Showdance to ‘O Fortuna’ by Carl Orff.
Kellie and Kevin will be performing their Showdance to ‘Ding-Dong Daddy of the D-Car Line’ by Cherry Poppin’ Daddies.
I’ve not seen any training footage but I’m willing to bet Georgia and Giovanni are going down the contemporary route if they’re dancing to ‘Fix You’. Hardly surprising considering Georgia is I’m pretty sure professional trained in contemporary dance going back to her drama school days. Contemporary is still rarely seen here compared to across the pond on DWTS where it is a regular dance. It’s known as a bit of a heartstring tugger and secured Caroline and Pasha the win last season and more recently Bindi and Derek a few weeks ago on DWTS. I find it extremely hard to believe that lightning will strike twice on SCD though, Giovanni is no Derek Hough and while they may get a 39 or even a perfect score on the night, I can’t see him choreographing a number so powerful that it could force people to vote for Georgia over Jay on the public vote. Never the less I wouldn’t be that surprised to see Georgia go first in the final followed perhaps by Katie and Anton just in case she is a threat to Jay.
I am thinking there is some value in the 8/1 price of Georgia to finish in 4th place.
We know that Georgia definitely received fewer votes than the other three finalists in the quarter-final, and it is possible that this happened again last week. A semi-final PV ranking of Jay, Kellie, Katie, Georgia, Anita would have led to a Katie vs Anita dance off. In fairness, it is also entirely possible that Georgia finished 1st or 2nd in the semi-final PV.
Both Katie & Kellie are dancing with well liked (and British) celebrities. Also, Georgia’s biggest ‘wow’ dance was the Charleston, and she will only perform this in the final if she gets into the final three.
To counter this (as Rob has mentioned previously) the Strictly final will receive a different voting demographic than in earlier weeks, and these voters may well be attracted to Georgia’s high energy dancing style.
I think Georgia is a deserved third favourite to finish in 4th place, but I feel that the true odds of this happening are nearer 4/1 than 8/1.
Hi chaps. Well, training footage for G&G certainly didn’t exactly blow me away tonight and I agree ‘contemporary’ is potentially a risky road to go down.
We are, ultimately, in the lap of the judges and how they see fit to eulogize and score up the showdances, or throw in some negativity. Purely at the price, also agree 8-1 looks too big to miss out on.
Ian was keen on K&K’s showdance but it looked crazy frenetic to me and could risk looking messy.
Showdance training footage: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p03cdjmh
Kellie and Kevin have chosen to Charleston to ‘Starwars Cantina Band’ by John Williams.
Georgia and Giovanni have chosen to Charleston to ‘Hot Honey Rag’ from Chicago.
Jay and Aliona have chosen to Paso Doble to ‘It’s My Life’ by Bon Jovi.
For punters who think Kellie will make the final three (and therefore perform her Star Wars Charleston) it may we worth taking a look at the Ladbrokes Judges Buzzword Bingo market.
‘The Force Is With You’ is priced up at 5/1, and sounds like a phrase that either Len or Bruno could say. Indeed, after the duo performed this dance in week 3, Bruno said ‘I could feel the Force!’