Tone Up Time

Nov 4, 2022 by Rob

The biggest story emerging from week 6 of Strictly was the snowballing gamble on Tony Adams. His excellent quickstep, which opened the show, was without doubt his strongest performance so far.

The market has also been moved following a Daily Mail story suggesting an Arsenal fan group is multi-voting for him each week.

These type of ‘show afraid duffer will win’ stories have become ten a penny going back to the X Factor glory days of Jedward and Wagner, on which subject this is still funny after all these years.

They make for great copy but dig deeper and you have to question their veracity, some of the voting figures mentioned in the Daily Mail story looking suspiciously inaccurate and probably made up.

There used to be a an old ‘golden rule of reality tv betting’ – only respect Daily Star vote leaks. And regardless of the possibility of Gooners voting like crazy for Tony, the simple fact of the matter is, it is very difficult for the weakest dancer on the show to make it beyond the last 6 stage.

Of more significance to Strictly traders is trying to predict the likely future trajectory of Tony’s price, with him already having been matched for significant amounts in the mid-20s on Betfair.

The Pitbull song alone for tomorrow night’s salsa gives off potential Ed Balls ‘Gangnam Style’ vibes:

Tony looked promising going through the gears on Tuesday night’s ITT showing his salsa prowess. He has rapidly transformed into this year’s feel-good journey contestant, and his and Katya’s routines are now firmly established as one of the show’s biggest highlights.

There does look room for Tony’s price to shorten further presuming tomorrow night’s salsa is the barnstorming affair it looks teed up to be, and you would think the show’s producers will be withholding it until late in the show. It may even be in the pimp slot.

The other two which look most likely to come under consideration to close the show, are Ellie S’s Charleston and Helen’s jive. It’s hard to imagine a third successive Charleston departing the competition and you have to think this will be Ellie S’s moment to shine.

Helen performed jive ten years ago on the Christmas Special. This time around, she has had seven weeks of intensive dance training in the build up, so should be able to pull off a strong routine to what seems a good track for a jive in ’Tightrope’. Last night’s training footage looked encouraging.

Tyler, Fleur and Molly all have ballroom routines on the night which have the look more of show fillers than highlights. Fleur will be hoping for kinder treatment and greater leaderboard protection after her second dance-off appearance last Saturday. It’s a tune with the right feel to sell a lyrical waltz with.

The Seal track also sounds ideal for Tyler and Dianne’s VW, though Tyler does still have some question marks hanging over his classic ballroom technique. Of the three, Molly has the least impactful song, and hardest dance in foxtrot, but essentially all three are reliant on positive appraisals from the judges, backed up by high scores, to avoid being dragged into the bottom two equation.

The tempo of ’Soda Pop’ and the big band feel of the track looks the perfect canvas for a strong quickstep for Will. Purely in their relative treatment last week, both dancing CCC, you do get the sense Tyler is favoured over Will in this series, scored 35 to Will’s 32.

Week 6 – Halloween Week judges’ leaderboard:

Ellie T and Johannes: Couple’s Choice (Theatre/Jazz) – (11) – 8, 9, 9, 9 = 35
Tyler and Dianne: CCC – (6) – 7, 9, 9, 10 = 35
Kym and Graziano: Rumba – (3) – 8, 8, 9, 9 = 34
Molly and Carlos: Argentine Tango – (5) – 6, 9, 9, 9 = 33
Hamza and Jowita: Tango – (8) – 8, 9, 8, 8 = 33
Will and Nancy: CCC – (2) – 8, 8, 8, 8 = 32
Helen and Gorka: Foxtrot – (7) – 7, 8, 8, 9 = 32
Fleur and Vito: Salsa – (9) – 8, 8, 8, 8 = 32 – bottom 2
Tony and Katya: Quickstep – (1) – 7, 8, 8, 8 = 31
Ellie S and Nikita: Foxtrot – (10) – 6, 8, 7, 8 = 29
James and Amy: Charleston – (4) – 6, 7, 7, 7 = 27 – eliminated

So it will be interesting to see whether or not the judges get nitpick-y with Will’s frame and footwork, more than they do Tyler’s, and how they are comparatively scored tomorrow night.

Kym produced an excellent rumba last Saturday and now gets to try her hand at Argentine tango. Both Fleur and Molly have passed the AT test in this series with pretty much flying colours – aside from Craig’s brutal 6 for Molly last Saturday which looked a clear and intentional vote motivator – and Kym and Graziano couldn’t have asked for a better AT track in the ‘Assassin’s Tango’.

Hamza has what looks a potential stumbling block in CCC, and his biggest hurdle to date. He may also find himself opening tomorrow night’s show. If the show wants to make this year’s competition look less of a procession, they won’t be scoring Hamza at the top of the leaderboard.

Ellie T goes into tomorrow night on the back of her pimp-slotted, joint leaderboard-topping CC routine, and having been allocated the rumba there has to be a strong chance of a big fall from grace.

There was a sense of her being over-scored last week and while she has been polling well series-long due to having a solid core vote she did noticeably drop down last week.

She has had a charmed run of late running order slots, never appearing earlier than the 5 slot so far. It has to be on the cards for her to be on early and if Hamza does open, it’s easy to see Ellie T potentially being sandwiched.

We know rumba is the dance of death and while Kym had the ability to cope with it, Ellie T has looked wooden in a lot of dances, last night’s training footage didn’t overly impress, and it’s difficult to envisage her fully succeeding with it.

Our exit poll is proving a useful barometer in estimating how the actual public vote is going each week, and thus working out who is under the most threat of ending up in the dance-off.

Please do let us know who got your vote(s) when the week 7 exit poll opens at the end of tomorrow night’s show.

Strictly 2022 Exit Poll – Week 7

Week 7 dances & songs:

Ellie S & Nikita: Charleston to Too Darn Hot by Kiss Me Kate
Ellie T & Johannes: Rumba to Alone by Heart
Fleur & Vito: Waltz to I Guess That’s Why They Call It The Blues by Elton John
Helen & Gorka: Jive to Tightrope by Janelle Monáe
Kym & Graziano: Argentine Tango to Assassin’s Tango by John Powell
Molly & Carlos: Foxtrot to You Make Me Happy by My Sun and Stars
Hamza & Jowita: Cha Cha Cha to I Can’t Help Myself (Sugar Pie, Honey Bunch) by Four Tops
Tony & Katya: Salsa to I Know You Want Me (Calle Echo) by Pitbull
Tyler & Dianne: Viennese Waltz to I’ve Been Loving You Too Long by Seal
Will & Nancy: Quickstep to Soda Pop by Robbie Williams featuring Michael Bublé