What Katie Did Next
It was another winning week on Strictly which makes it 4 out of 5 eliminations called correctly in this series. Last Saturday’s profit was further boosted by Georgia landing highest scorer honours, advised at 10-1.
The 6th elimination market largely hinges on producers’ intentions for Jamelia. After her heart-rending comment, ‘I’ve come to the conclusion maybe the public don’t like me’ on Sunday’s results show, the reaction of the studio audience, and the way she bravely tried to stay upbeat despite a third dance-off appearance, the feeling is TPTB will more likely try and earn Jamelia a one-week reprieve, and the VW offers the perfect window for this.
As astute commentator James points out, the VW is regularly a dance that enables a female contestant to flourish on the judges’ leaderboard. Katie’s highest series score: a 33 for a VW in week 4 after her low scoring CCC the previous week. Kirsty’s highest series score: a 29 for a VW after she was bottom 2 the previous week.
After being on 5th in the running order last Saturday it would come as no surprise to see Jamelia on towards the end of the show, and for judges to talk her up and reward her with a score of 32 or maybe even higher.
Carol clung on for dear life last week, her and Pasha managing to escape the dance-off despite appalling Halloween makeovers, a pedestrian rumba and a series worst score of 13.
On Saturday Carol has the American Smooth and probably one of the poorest song choices of the week, along with Kellie. The great imponderable is just how high Carol has been polling but after softening up her vote with that rumba, they could have her in their sights.
Jeremy has a fun tune for his tango and you sense the show wants him around at least as far as Blackpool Week which lands on November 21. While that 4 from Craig last Saturday could have hinted at an ‘end of journey’ for him, another entertaining routine looks in the offing. An early slot last week (3/11) could also see Jeremy back on late on Saturday.
One thing we do know is Katie has topped the public vote three weeks out of four, grabbing about 20% of the votes, courtesy of the Daily Star and a story found here.
This comes as no surprise and was predicted in the article posted on September 28 putting forward the case for Katie Derham in this series, found here.
… you get the feeling Katie could, just could, become this season’s voting behemoth. Cue Daily Star vote leak information and correspondent price crash later in the series…
It was a little surprising to see Katie’s Outright price remain unmoved around 17 on Betfair. The price crash has not materialized. This is partly due to 20% being perceived as easily surmountable later in the series, and also because the judges appear to be going out of their way to undermine Katie already.
Despite a respectable paso doble on Saturday which could have been realistically scored 7s, and received a standing ovation, the judges panned it and gave her an incredibly harsh 21.
The thinking here had initially been, the show might bow to the public on this occasion because it would be a feel-good story for Anton to make the final. But it looks like they have become fearful of Katie and Anton’s voting power already and are trying to hammer home the message to viewers that Katie cannot dance Latin routines.
A lot will depend on when or if Katie has to dance the samba. Rumba should be fine for her but samba is her last remaining fast Latin dance that would likely cause her difficulties and virtually guarantee last place on the leaderboard.
She may get the opportunity to duck it completely and, if she does dance it, they might end up being too heavy-handed in their criticism, as they were last Saturday, encouraging Katie and Anton’s fans to vote even more.
We saw a similar situation develop with Susanna Reid who was reported to be landing double the votes of her nearest rival a couple of series ago. She was left in last place on the judges’ leaderboard in the quarter-final, and second last in the semi-final. On both occasions she managed to avoid the dance-off and made it to the final where she was of course beaten by Abbey Clancy.
Here is this week’s full dance and song list:
Anita and Gleb are Jiving to ‘The Boy Does Nothing’ by former Strictly winner Alesha Dixon.
Carol and Pasha dance the American Smooth to ‘Man! I feel Like a Woman’ by Shania Twain.
Georgia and Giovanni dance the Samba to ‘Volare’ by The Gipsy Kings.
Helen and Aljaz will Rumba to ‘Hello” by Adele.
Jamelia and Tristan perform the Viennese Waltz to ‘Trouble’ by Ray LaMontagne.
Jay and Aliona perform the Argentine Tango to ‘Diferente’ by The Gotan Project.
Jeremy and Karen are dancing the Tango to ’Go West’ by The Pet Shop Boys.
Katie and Anton will Quickstep to ‘42nd Street’ from the musical 42nd Street.
Kellie and Kevin are going to Waltz to ‘Love Ain’t Here Anymore’ by Take That.
Peter and Janette will Charleston to ‘Do your Thing’ by Basement Jaxx.
There are potentially a number of gems in there which makes Highest Scorer investments problematic. Charleston offers Peter the chance to shine and a ‘You’re back in the competition’ week. 32pts is Peter’s series highest but you also wonder if the judges are keen to continue to keep his scoring on a tight leash, reminiscent of the way they treated Ashley Taylor Dawson in series 11.
If she avoids going wrong, Katie could produce a high class QS but again the concern is whether the judges will be tight with their scoring of her, given they appear to be looking to dampen her support.
Jay gets to dance the first AT of the series to a perfect piece of music to engender the drama of the dance and he hasn’t top scored since his epic jive, so he could be ‘due’.
Helen is very balletic, looks like she will be ideally suited to the rumba and has the Adele hit single to help her create a moment. Anita has endured a run of early starting positions and has been consistently harshly scored in this series. Is this week’s potentially fun jive teed up for a pimp slot and her to surpass her highest series score of 32, or will the miserly scoring continue with her?
It seems more likely Georgia will drop down dancing the samba after topping the leaderboard last week, while Kellie’s waltz looks like being one of the week’s less memorable dances. Whichever of the top 5 women in this series scores least well and is perhaps on early could find themselves in line for a shock bottom 2 appearance IF Jamelia is late running order positioned, talked up and scored up.
In the belief this is likely to be the Jamelia narrative this week, Carol looks the value for 6th elimination at 2-1 with Skybet. She could find herself on early after last week’s 8/11 and she is likely to find it much harder to escape the bottom 2 than in week 5 when she was 2/12, sandwiched between Georgia and Anita but at least had a floaty VW to call upon which provided her with her second highest score of the series.
If you followed earlier Top Female advice, you are currently looking for Helen, Anita or Katie to collect on this bet. Georgia has since come into favouritism, at a current best price of 11-4.
Given this market is looking more and more likely to be settled as a dead-heat with 2nd and 3rd not being revealed in the final, and 2nd and 3rd spots probably both occupied by women, 11-4 looks too skinny to get involved besides which the female side of the competition still looks extremely open.
Advised:
6th elimination – Carol – 3pt win – 2-1 – Skybet
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“A lot will depend on when or if Katie has to dance the samba. Rumba should be fine for her but samba is her last remaining fast Latin dance that would likely cause her difficulties and virtually guarantee last place on the leaderboard. She may get the opportunity to duck it completely…” I think this is the most important part of this excellent article. I take it that the judges have given harsh critique early in the series, so they can now give lots of praise from this weekend onwards without appearing biased and in so doing getting Katie and Anton to the final (at which time who knows?) after which Anton will be able to retire on a high. As such I only see Katie’s price shortening from this weekend onwards. Good luck all 🙂
Regarding Carol’s elimination chances, does anyone know if Chris Evans is still asking his radio listeners to vote for her?
I’m not a daily listener of his show, Tim, but he usually has a chat with her about Strictly before she gives her weather info – that was the case last week, on the Mon, when she wouldn’t reveal the dance she had.
Looks like he wasn’t on on Mon this week. Found a small segment on yesterday’s ep about 44mins in. ‘Please let Carol get to Blackpool’ says Chris:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b06mbhr0
Ladbrokes, & fair play to them, have a bottom 2 market.
Advised:
Kellie – bottom 2 – 8-1 – 1pt win – Ladbrokes
I see her, at least pre-lives, as most vulnerable to drop down. Dull ballroom, competent but potentially forgotten on the night and leaving her maybe 4th or 5th on the leaderboard.
Training footage: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UcfxRRyPeTg&feature=youtu.be
Hi Rob. After three straight weeks of the females heading the leaderboard, I think Jay & Peter have both been given fantastic opportunities to reclaim top spot. The Charleston and Argentine Tango are two high scoring dances for male celebrities with decent ability.
Strictly likes to end the show on a high, and both of these dances would fit the bill. My thoughts are that Jay is most likely to receive the pimp slot this week.
1) Peter has danced after Jay, in the running order, in four of the six weeks to date, which would suggest it is Jay’s turn.
2) Peter has already danced last, or next to last four times this series, compared to two times for Jay
3) Strictly has past form in putting strong male celebrities dancing the AT at the end of the show. For example, Jake Wood (7th of 7), Jason Donovan (10/10) and Matt Baker (11/11)
Great stats, James. I was thinking Jay for pimp slot this week most likely but he didn’t look as good as I anticipated in the training room tonight on ITT. Earlier in the week though and Aliona has been Tweeting a lot of enthusiasm.
I see that Ladbrokes are offering 2/1 on any judge to award a 10 this week. This would appear to be fantastic value, given that at least one 10 has been awarded in week seven of every series, since series one!!
Thank you James, I’ve taken this. A 10 for Jamelia would be nice 😉
It’s a great spot, James. I’d like to be reassured by better training from Jay but I recall thinking he looked poor in training leading into the jive so maybe history is about to repeat itself.
ITT could be trying to put us away with Jay’s training VT. Alexander Armstrong mentioned this tonight & it does hint at a similar set-up to his training VTs pre-jive.
I see a 10 is into 5-4 now so a nice bit of value-spotting there James.
Anita on 7th of 10.
Hi Rob. Thanks for this. After three consecutive early appearances, Anita was due to receive a decent spot in the running order. I was thinking 8th or 9th. Will Helen’s ‘luck’ of getting favourable draws come to an end this week?
Carol v Kellie
CAROL OUT
The run continues. Hope all EntOdds readers cleaned up again backing Carol for elim and Kellie to be in the bottom 2. And James helped make it a treble with the 10 🙂
Smashing stuff Rob
Hi Rob. Congratulations on the inspired Kellie tip. Before tonight Kevin had successfully avoided the dance off on 27 consecutive occasions, so that was a brave call!
Hopefully the hit that Ladbrokes took tonight does not stop them from offering additional markets next week.
One of the more peculiar running orders that I can remember, with Peter opening the show, Jay tucked away in the middle, and Kellie, Jeremy & Georgia picked as the final three.
And well done to you for the 10 spot. I think K&K come across as try-hards; like a preppy stage-school duo and as a result their performances are competent but rather insipid.
I feared the late r.o. slot might help Kellie avoid b2, though I also backed Helen for b2 at 10-1 & thought she was most likely to land there if Kellie didn’t.
Hi Rob
If a male contestant wins, I can’t remember from last year, did they announce third place and keep the top two for the end segment or if two females are runners up, would they pay out on top female for either of them?
Hi Stuart,
This is always the dilemma with Strictly. 4-couple final format in recent years. 4th place announced then the final 3 couples dance one more time, then they announce the winner.
So 2nd & 3rd not revealed. So if it is 2 women 2nd and 3rd Top Female likely to be settled as a dead-heat by your bookmaker which is either half your stake, or half the odds. Of course, if you’ve backed both women who end up 2nd & 3rd, you will get paid out on both, but settled according to dead-heat rules.
Thanks for clarifying that Rob, interesting, but at least it doubles the chances of a winning bet I suppose. cheers.
Just to confirm (taken from the BBC Strictly website):
The Grand Final of Strictly Come Dancing 2015 will be on Saturday 19th December. The four remaining couples will all dance again but this time the judges’ scores will be for reference only. The eliminations and the ultimate winner of Strictly Come Dancing 2015 will be decided purely by the public vote.
The vote will open after all couples have danced for the first time. The vote will then be frozen at a time announced on the programme. The couple with the fewest votes at this point will be eliminated at the start of the results show (on that same day).
In the very unlikely event of two couples being tied at the bottom of the phone vote, Head Judge Len Goodman will have the casting vote so that one couple will still be eliminated. The vote will then be reopened but all the votes already cast for the remaining couples will still count and will be carried over.
The three remaining couples will dance once more for your votes in the results show before the vote is closed and the winner announced.
I think half your stake at the full odds is usually the way dead-heats are settled, but from experience bookmakers can be inconsistent how or if they apply dead-heat rules.
Hi Rob. I see that Jeremy is dancing the Quickstep this week. Historically this has been a good dance for the weaker male celebrities. Of the 11 males who danced the Quickstep, and were of a similar dancing standard, only two dropped into the ‘bottom two’ that week (David Dickinson & Rav Wilding) and only one was eliminated (Rav).
I would also suspect he will receive a positive edit to ease him through to ‘his final’ also known as Blackpool week.
For me, a bottom two of Jamelia versus anyone but Jeremy, looks probable.
Hi James. You have articulated my early thoughts. Jeremy will go to Blackpool which looks teed up to be his swansong on the show.
Jamelia looks very much under threat on Saturday but I am just waiting to see which dance she has because if she has an entertaining fast Latin routine, that may give her a sporting chance of getting through.
The scarcity of ties on the judges leaderboard last week, and Kellie’s fall from mid-table on the judges leaderboard, to the bottom two, provides us with some useful information on the public vote.
1) The judges leaderboard points were as follows: Peter 10, Georgia 9, Jay & Anita 8, Kellie 7, Helen 6, Jamelia 5, Katie 4, Jeremy 3, Carol 2
2) If Kellie had received 5 or more points via the public vote, mathematically I believe she could not have finished in the bottom two. Therefore Kellie finished somewhere between 7th and 10th in the PV.
3) If Kellie finished 10th (and last) in the PV picking up just one point, to give her a combined total of 8 points, this would mean Jeremy could have finished no lower than 6th in the PV
4) Similarly, in terms of the PV, Katie must have finished no lower than 7th, Jamelia no lower than 8th, and Helen no lower than 9th.
What we know so far:
Anita & Gleb – ?
Georgia & Giovanni – Charleston
Helen & Aljaz – Tango
Jamelia & Tristan – ?
Jay & Aliona – ?
Jeremy & Karen – Quickstep
Katie & Anton – rumba
Kellie & Kevin – ?
Peter & Janette – Viennese Waltz
Katie gets the dreaded Rumba this week! This is likely to prove a huge test for Katie & Anton’s fan base, as I see a low score as very likely.
Anton scored 27 for the Rumba in series one. Since then his scores for this dance have been 16, 13, 22, 14, 14 & 22.
Admittedly some of Anton’s partners have been of a much lower standard than Katie, but the scores above include dances with Fiona (22), Laila (22) and Patsy (13) who have similar series averages to Katie.
It’s fairly transparent they are being ultra-critical of Katie & Anton because they have been flying so high on the public vote.
If they’s go as far as looking to get them eliminated this weekend, I’m not so sure.
One correction to mention. Anton actually scored 26 (not 13) dancing the Rumba with Patsy in series 3. This still means that Anton hasn’t scored more than 22 for this dance since 2005.
The week after Blackpool will introduce the ‘Quickstepathon’ according to BBC press centre release:
Following last weekend’s incredible show from the dizzy heights of the legendary Blackpool Tower, it’s ballroom business as usual, as Strictly Come Dancing returns back home to the studio.
Tess Daly and Claudia Winkleman present, as the competition gets even tougher. This week, not only do the seven remaining couples need to impress ballroom bigwigs (Len Goodman, Darcey Bussell, Bruno Tonioli and Craig Revel Horwood) with their Ballroom and Latin routines, but brand new for 2015 they will also have to dance for a second time, as they take part in a Quickstepathon which will give the dancing duos a chance to improve their precious scores.
Once the couples have danced twice, the voting lines will open and it will be up to the public to decide which two couples must face each other, and the judges, to dance for their survival in Sunday’s Results Show.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/mediacentre/proginfo/2015/48/strictly-come-dancing
Anita and Gleb will be performing the Quickstep to ‘Don’t Get Me Wrong’ by The Pretenders.
Georgia and Giovanni will be dancing the Charleston to ‘Hot Honey Rag’ from Chicago.
Helen and Aljaž will be performing the Tango to ‘Hold Back The River’ by James Bay.
Jamelia and Tristan will be performing the Samba to ‘A Little Respect’ by Erasure.
Jay and Aliona will be dancing the Foxtrot ‘Lay Me Down’ by Sam Smith.
Jeremy and Karen will be performing the Quickstep to ‘Going Underground’ by The Jam.
Katie and Anton will be dancing the Rumba to ‘Never Never Never’ by Shirley Bassey.
Kellie and Kevin will be performing the Samba to ‘Boom Shake The Room’ by Jazzy Jeff and the Fresh Prince.
Peter and Janette will be dancing the Viennese Waltz to ‘You’re My World’ by Cilla Black.