EntertainmentOdds Best Trading Year Yet

Dec 28, 2011 by

We hope you have enjoyed our coverage of the major tv betting events in 2011 in what has proved a vintage year.
Latching on to event winners – as we did in the case of Azerbaijan (12-1, Outright winner) and Greece (50-1, semi-final winner) during Eurovision, and Little Mix in X Factor (66-1) – at such big, double figure prices, is like hitting the proverbial tv betting ‘home run’, and will always help enormously in your pursuit of a year-end profit. But it’s as much in the finer detail of shrewd weekly trading on the elimination markets that can prove equally bountiful, and will see a gradual rise in your betting balance.
Over the course of the last 12 months trading, there have inevitably been both winners and losers. Strictly wasn’t as much of a money-spinner as previous years largely because we took the initial view on our Outright book – as we invariable do; ‘value’ being our byword – of taking on the ante-post favourite, namely, Harry Judd, and it was only over the last month or so of the series that we were feverishly reversing our position on him.
It was a similar story with this year’s SPOTY. After his Tour De France heroics we still did not see Mark Cavendish getting close to winning and opposed him, but as soon as it became clear there was a motivated online campaign by the cycling lobby to multi-vote him to victory, we frantically got him in the green.
While neither of these markets were big winners, they are an illuminating example of successful tv betting over the course of the year – seeing your book’s vulnerability, acknowledging your error of judgement, and acting fast enough to ensure you are not on the receiving end of a big loss.
In the same way we traded away a substantial four figure sum levelling up our books over the course of both the Eurovision and X Factor final nights, and thus reducing our overall profits on Azerbaijan and Little Mix respectively. While this is galling, it’s a necessary evil in our view as it’s a vital maxim of tv betting – which can be so capricious – never to be greedy and always to play it safe.
The key to long-term, sustainable profit is making more winning trades than losing ones – in other words, managing to back high and lay low as often as possible – and tied in with that is the ability to pounce when the prices are wrong and the value is glaring. And we pride ourselves on this.
Since EntertainmentOdds.com launched, in August 2009, we have made an average annual profit well into five figures, profits generated from the advice you read here.
The nature of live, in-running tv betting markets means it is impossible to flag up every winning trade we make to our readers – as the value prices come and go in the blink of an eye during the live shows – but we endeavour to provide the most insight that we can and would like to think the articles we post here speak for themselves.
No sooner does the new year arrive, than tv betting markets spark into action once more with the imminent return of Celebrity Big Brother and Dancing On Ice. Then in the spring the BBC’s new singing talent vehicle ‘The Voice’ will arrive, but from January onwards the tv betting momentum will inexorably build towards the Eurovision Song Contest 2012, held in Baku on May 26, and this will provide the fulcrum of our coverage as we consider it the most lucrative tv betting medium of the entire year.
Keep an eye out for our next article which will offer an early analysis of the 2012 SPOTY market. In the meantime, here’s our favourite moment during the 2011 tv betting year, and a quick reminder of some of our stand-out recommendations.
Here’s to 2012 being as enjoyable and financially fruitful.
A Prosperous New Year to all of our readers!
Rob Furber

Time To Snap Up The Early Eurovision Value
March 16th, 2011:
Next up has to be perennial challenger Azerbaijan who have managed to come up with a delightfully light and fluffy tune this year called ‘Running Scared’ that perfectly complements the male/female combo who sing it. Much like Bosnia it has some solid and reliable supporters among diaspora nations, and it’s hard to see this not going very close this year given a decent final draw. ‘Drip Drop’ managed 5th from a terrible draw last year, not to mention a pretty sub-standard vocal by Safura and poor choreography. We think this song is as strong, if not stronger, and among the two best ballads in this year’s competition. ESC fans also have previous in supporting nicely executed male/female numbers – Romania being the classic example from last year. Again, at 12-1 e/w first 4 this is a solid betting proposition, and has to form part of the AP portfolio.

Betfair’s Top 12 – The EntertainmentOdds Verdict
March 25th, 2011:
Azerbaijan has form figures of 8th, 3rd, 5th. And if its historical voting strength isn’t enough to make you sit up and take notice, ‘Running Scared’ sung by Ell & Nikki is a very appealing, ESC-friendly ballad. The male/female combo can be a big vote winner alone and one of the few doubts we have over this song is whether Nikki can sing well enough live – she didn’t sound great during the Azerbaijan contest to pick their ESC vocalists. Overall, this should be another big green and is value at 16 on Betfair.

Georgia Ready To Rock ESC Semi Final 1 Betting
April 1st, 2011:
Of the remainder, Greece has the best draw, last up on the night, and it also rates 2nd best in this semi in terms of voting allies. The song itself is not the country’s best but it still has the potential to nick a place, and at 50-1 e/w is definitely over-priced with Boylesports.

Greece went on to win semi-final 1.

Battle Of The Solo Female Ballads In ESC Semi 2
April 5th, 2011:
Maja Keuc sings ‘No One’ for Slovenia from the 13 slot and this power ballad is certainly more contemporary compared to Austria with a hint of R&B about it. Maja, like Nadine, is also capable of a powerful and impactful live vocal performance:
A look back at the 2010 semi-final results gives us an indication of the potential of Austria and Slovenia to produce a good result. Georgia’s ballad ‘Shine’ managed third place in the second semi, ahead of the uptempo Romania and Denmark, which ended up 3rd and 4th respectively in the final. Georgia was aided by a great draw (16 of 17), so to that extent Slovenia possibly has the edge over Austria this year by being drawn later in 13. Georgia was 5th on the televote but 1st with juries lifting it to 3rd overall.
So we suggest taking… the 10-1 e/w Slovenia available with Skybet, Victor Chandler and William Hill.

Slovenia finished 3rd in semi-final 2.

Feel The Passion Of Albania Qualification Punt
April 14th, 2011:
So where does this leave us regarding semi-final 1 in Dusseldorf? In terms of potential non-qualifiers, looking for weak songs with an early draw and a lack of voting allies. Surprisingly, Turkey ranks only 11th in terms of voting allies in semi 1 and is drawn 5 with a very bland and forgettable rock tune, yet Victor Chandler rate it 1-20 to qualify. Azerbaijan will give it 12pts but could Turkey still be a surprise non-qualifier? If you can lay at anything between 1-10 and 1-20 on Betfair it would appear a gamble worth taking given there is very little downside if it does qualify and these odds far from reflect its true qualifying chance.
Lay Turkey to qualify on Betfair up to 1.1.

This proved our tv betting lay of the year, as Turkey finished outside the top 10 in 13th, and to the delight of our followers a 1-10 shot was floored.

We Love Belarus (As A Qualification Bet)
April 18th, 2011:
The Netherlands song has been commended by many ESC fans but with a lowly ranking of 16th in terms of voting friends in this semi, and a poor draw of 3, it also looks solid lay material at anything up to 2.7 on Betfair. It’s a mid tempo song that will disappear into the background like wallpaper.
While Latvia has a good draw of 17, this is about the only thing in the song’s favour. It’s dull and uninteresting and in such a competitive semi we expect it to comfortably miss out on the top 10 and rate it a cracking lay at anything up to 2.3 on Betfair.

Both lays comfortably landed after Netherlands finished 19th (and last) in semi-final 2 while Latvia placed 17th.

Heads You Win
April 26th, 2011:
Finland is also worth backing at 17-10 in its head-to-head with Norway. Norway has a poor early draw in 2, whereas Finland is drawn 10. Norway will likely receive decent televote support but Finland should be able to overtake it comfortably overall as we think juries will rate this entry highly. Paradise Oskar is the potential Tom Dice of this year’s ESC and stands alone as a simple, stripped down guitar and vocal combo.

Finland finished 3rd in semi-final 1 while Norway finished 17th and failed to qualify for the final.

So Lucky For Moldova Backers
May 5th, 2011:
With regard to qualifying/not qualifying betting, Moldova looks a bit of value for the big hitters at 1-2 with Coral to qualify. ‘So Lucky’ really livens up proceedings after the narcolepsy-inducing effect of the 4 songs that precede it.
We also love the staging of this song, especially the young lady on the unicycle. The joyful insanity of this performance combined with the fact Moldova rates 3rd in this semi in respect of voting allies should see it ease through to the final.
We now think Israel will struggle to qualify based on what we saw yesterday and is worth backing not to qualify at a widely-available 8-11. There has been a lot of nostalgia regarding the return of former winner Dana International, but she was so out of tune it’s hard to see her making the final even if she improves in her future rehearsals.

Moldova qualified in 10th place. Israel finished 15th and thus failed to qualify for the final.

Serbs To Be Sunk In Semi 1
May 9th, 2011:
In regard to a nation like Georgia, who we still think has great top 10 claims in the final granted a decent draw, it might be worth considering laying Georgia to qualify at a current lay price of 1.59, to cover your stake on Georgia to finish top 10 at a current back price of 9.8. We still see this well performed rock tune leaping out at televoters and doing well enough with juries. If it gets through and gets a decent final draw, its top 10 price will plummet.
Greece looks a stand out bet to finish top 3 at 5-1 with bwin. Greece is also a stand out at 8-5 with bwin in semi 1 head-to-head betting with Turkey. This song’s staging is a dramatic triumph, Loukas Giorkas delivers a stirring live vocal, it has the 2nd highest voting allies in this semi (behind Azerbaijan) and has the best of the draw performing last.

Georgia qualified in 6th and went on to finish 9th in the final from its draw position of 25 (out of 25) landing the 9.8. Greece won semi-final 1, with Turkey failing to qualify for the final from semi-final 1 after finishing 13th.

Is The Jedward Gamble Heading For A Car Crash?
May 11th, 2011:
Outright quotes for Ireland appear far-fetched in the extreme – at time of writing Jedward are 7.4 clear second favourite to win on Betfair and dropping like a stone. It’s been a case of the luck of the Irish in being drawn last in the second semi but we would rather take Ireland on not to finish in the top 3 at anything up to 2.5 on Betfair.

Ireland finished 8th in semi-final 2, and proved a fruitful lay.

Azerbaijan Primed For ESC Victory
May 14th, 2011:
… the nation we think are the most likely winner of this year’s ESC is Azerbaijan.

And, of course, Azerbaijan duly triumphed.

Get Ready For Girl Power
October 5th, 2011:
At this very early stage, we’re keeping a close eye on Rhythmix. They seem a likable group of girls, rather sweet and naive, and you can see the judging panel building them up over early weeks… We are far less convinced by the credentials of the 2 boybands, Nu Vibe and The Risk. You get a feeling the world has had its fill of such boybands, even in X Factor land. Nothing about either of them is interesting or original. JLS didn’t win, the heavily pimped One Direction didn’t win, and we’re finding it hard to see either of these 2 bands making the latter stages. Girlbands are historically vulnerable in the early weeks and struggle to get a vote but we’d argue the show has never had 2 girlbands in the mould of Rhythmix or 2 Shoes before, and one of these could capture the public’s imagination.

Rhythmix To Stay In Field Of ‘Cannot Wins’
October 12th, 2011:
With 2 Shoes biting the dust, this paves the way clear for Rhythmix, who were given a huge seal of approval by the judges on Saturday which suggests to us, they are going to push them as much as they can and hope they catch fire with the public.
We certainly wouldn’t put you off taking the 66-1 e/w with Coral on the Outright, having already advised Rhythmix at 7-1 to be Top Group.

Rhythmics An Elimination Layer’s Dream, Again
October 21st, 2011:
We hope you all followed our X Factor advice last week and laid Rhythmix on Betfair’s elimination market. They sang ‘I’m Like A Bird’ really well, and proceeded to get glowing praise from the judges, as we predicted.
They are going to have a good run in this series and we would highly recommend laying them again on this week’s ’6th elimination’ market.
We previously advised them on the Outright market at 66-1 e/w and they are now trading at half those odds. We still see value in their current quote of 33-1 e/w with Paddy Power and SportingBet as we rate them as one of only about 4 contestants this year that can win. Despite having The Risk to beat, we also think there is value in their current quote of 15-2 with Boylesports to be Top Group.

Little Mix, Big Punt
November 15th, 2011:
We have been recommending backing Little Mix back when they were Rhythmix and available at 66-1, and we’re still of the strong belief this series is all about Little Mix.
They want a group to win for the first time and it would be an even bigger story for a girlband to win. There is a growing momentum behind these girls already, and an enormous amount of goodwill…
In conclusion, we still think Little Mix are excellent value at a best-priced 6-1 to win. If you miss this, back Tulisa to be Winning Mentor, also at 6-1. Better yet, if you’re very quick, grab the last of the 13-2 with Boylesports the winning category is the Groups this year.

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