Hard Fought Gains

Dec 27, 2012 by Rob

It was another good year for EntertainmentOdds in 2012 though profits did not reach 2010 or 2011 levels.

In 2011, our followers saw their profits soar courtesy of Azerbaijan’s win at ESC 2011, initially advised here at 14-1, along with Greece winning their 2011 ESC semi-final, advised at 50-1, and Little Mix, advised at 66-1, winning X Factor 2011.

Such headline, big priced winners proved more elusive in 2012 which is why profits are down on previous years. It was a year of hard-fought trading gains, and a case of close but no cigar with our Albania semi-final 1 wager at ESC 2012, just touched off in 2nd at 66-1 e/w, beaten by the Babushki by a miserly 6pts, after some scandalous over-scoring of the Russian novelty tune by juries.

We also advised Azerbaijan (finished 4th) at 50-1 e/w first 4 and were always on the side of Sweden as the most likely winner. Two of our strongest recommendations at ESC 2012 duly landed too: Serbia to finish in the top 4, and exploring all possible avenues in laying the UK including backing its opponent in every head-to-head market it was quoted.

At ESC 2012 our biggest trading boast of the year came when predicting the semi-final qualifiers, and correctly picking 19 out of the 20 countries that progressed to the final, from our handy hotseat in the press centre in Baku. This included a recommended back of Malta at 4, and lay of Slovenia at 1.5. Baku was also highly memorable for the dramatic night when Loreen choked on a snowflake in front of the juries.

Where we also succeeded was in our headline lays of the year. Russia at ESC 2012 was rated as a lay throughout the contest and was comfortably seen off by Sweden in the final but surprised us in managing to finish 2nd. In X Factor we strongly opposed Jahmene series-long. Like the Russian grannies, he came a lot closer to winning than we would have liked.

Ella’s surprise elimination in XF was a blow having recommended her when she was available in the high street at 7-1. She ended up trading odds-on so still offered a great trade and we then correctly called James as the chosen one and our idea of the Outright winner – our analysis of his mega-bounce following his bottom 2 appearance proving spot on.

There was more profit landed on the XF weekly markets where we advised some great elimination punts on Carolynne (20-1), Melanie (20-1) and Jade (8-1). The Union J/District 3 bottom 2 combo at 5-1 was another feather in our cap among a plethora of winning wagers. Laying Chris to be in the bottom 2 proved a successful trade virtually series-long, thanks once again to the invaluable information gleaned from the Star’s voting leaks.

The Strictly weekly markets were also profitable for our followers though big-priced winners were hard to come by. In the Outright, we initially took Louis Smith on but advised readers to back him following the Star vote leak which told us he had been topping the pv series-long. The final of SCD proved a trading triumph as we correctly called that the 2nd and 3rd would likely not be revealed by the BBC and there was value in the Louis/Denise straight forecast at 10-1, which duly landed either in full or as a dead-heat depending on your bookmaker’s stance.

Our strongest advice in SPOTY 2012 was Andy Murray to finish in the top 3. We also flagged up the Paralympians for Team of the Year at 5-1. The trading we outlined for SPOTY 2012 served to illustrate how you do not need to invest heavily in a long odds-on shot, and risk leaving yourself heavily exposed, to turn a very healthy profit on a tv betting event.

Shrewdest trading analysis of 2012: X Factor Switcheroo – revealing why Carolynne in week 1 of the X Factor live shows had a far from advantageous late draw in 12 having been ‘sandwiched’ and was in serious danger of elimination. She duly was eliminated and our readers were rewarded with a 20-1 winner.

Biggest trading regret: advising Russia as a lay to win semi-final 1 of ESC 2012 – the reasons for laying Russia were sound enough but we failed to foresee such a sizeable jury score. Quite how juries managed to rate Russia 8th with a points tally of 75 remains a mystery and serves to highlight how untrustworthy juries can sometimes be.

Over the last three and half years, based on the information we highlight to readers on this site, we have managed to achieve an average trading profit in five figures per annum. EntertainmentOdds will continue to endeavour to unearth the wisest tv betting trades in 2013, and keep the profits flowing in, as has been the case since the site was founded in August 2009.

We’ll leave you with our personal favourite moment of the tv betting year – Rona Nishliu’s spellbinding rendition of ‘Suus’ in ESC 2012 semi-final 1: