Jay Helps Make Hay

Dec 30, 2015 by

Jay Helps Make Hay

Following on from a profitable 2014 for this site, 2015 proved to be an even more successful tv betting and trading year.

Eurovision 2015 produced a profit for subscribers of +90pts to a 1pt level stake, and a 104.5pt profit overall.

This is the list of advised Strictly, X Factor and SPOTY investments and the full breakdown of the investment advice offered to readers in 2015:


Strictly 2015 pre-lives advice:
Helen – Top Female – 7-2 – Ladbrokes – 6pt win = -6pts

Anita – Top Female – 12-1 – Ladbrokes – 2pt win = -2pts
Anita – Outright – 22-1 – Coral, bet365 – 1pt e/w (a fifth the odds first 3) = -2pts
Jay – Outright – 6-1 – Paddy Power, Coral – 4pt e/w (a fifth the odds first 3) = +28.8pts
Anthony – Outright – 12-1 – Coral, Stan James – 2pt e/w (a fifth the odds first 3) = -4pts

SPOTY – Outright – Andy Murray – 2pts e/w (a quarter the odds first 3) – 8-1 – William Hill, BetVictor = +20pts

Strictly – Katie Derham – Top Female – 5-1 – 4pt win = -4pts

Outright – Katie Derham – 9-1 – 2pt e/w – Coral, Skybet = -4pts

Iwan Thomas – first elimination – 9-2 – 2pt win – bet365, Paddy Power = +9pts

Kirsty Gallagher – first elimination – 25-1 – 0.5pt win – Boylesports = -0.5pts

Strictly – Anthony – 2nd elimination – 9-2 – 2pts win – Coral, Skybet, Boylesports = +9pts
Kirsty – 2nd elimination – 6-1 – 1pt win – Paddy Power = -1pt
Kirsty – 3rd elimination – 100-30 – 3pt win – Stan James = -3pts
Ainsley – 4th elimination – 9-2 – 2pt win – Coral/William Hill = +9pts
Jamelia – 4th elimination – 9-1 – 1pt win – Boylesports = -1pt

+48.3pts

X Factor 2015 pre-lives advice:
Outright – Seann – 8-1 – 2pt e/w – Skybet, Betfred = -4pts
Kiera Weathers – 18-1 – 1pt e/w – Skybet = -2pts
Alien Uncovered – 28-1 – 0.5pt e/w – Skybet = -1pt

Max Stone – first elimination – 8-1 – 2pt win – Ladbrokes, Skybet = -2pts
Keira – 1st elimination – 5-2 – 2pt win – Ladbrokes, Paddy Power, Betfred = -2pts

Strictly – 5th elimination – Kirsty – 3pt win – 2-1 – Boylesports, Betfred = +6pts

Highest scorer – Georgia – 0.5pt e/w – 10-1 – Coral (e/w 1, 2, a third the odds) = +6.6pts

Anita – 1pt win – 100-30 – Coral = -1pt

6th elimination – Carol – 3pt win – 2-1 – Skybet = +6pts

Kellie – bottom 2 – 8-1 – 1pt win – Ladbrokes = +8pts

X Factor – Max – 3rd elimination – 1pt win – 6-1 – Skybet = -1pt

Mason – ‘to be in the bottom 3’ – 2pt win – 7-4 – Betfred = +3.5pts

+65.4pts

Strictly – Georgia – Outright ’without Jay’ – 4pt win – 9-4 – William Hill = +2.5pts (dead-heat winner)

X Factor – Reggie n Bollie – Outright – 14-1 – 1pt e/w – Stan James (e/w first 3, a fifth the odds) = +1.8pts

5th elimination – Max – 4-1 – 1pt win – Boylesports = +4pts
5th elimination – Mason – 2pt win – 13-8 – Ladbrokes, WH = -2pts

Strictly – Lowest score – Jamelia – 11-2 – 1pt win – Coral = -1pt
Anita – highest scorer – 4-1 – 2pt win – Paddy Power = -2pts
Katie – highest scorer – 5-1 – 1pt win – Paddy Power = -1pt
Helen – highest scorer – 4-1 – 1pt win – William Hill = -1pt

Peter – next elim – 20-1 – 1pt win – Skybet = -1pt

X Factor – next elim – Che – 14-1 – 1pt win – bet365, Coral = -1pt
4th Impact – 13-2 – 2pt win – Boylesports, Coral = -2pts

8th elimination – 4th Impact – 3-1 – 2pt win – Ladbrokes, Coral = -2pts

Strictly – Kellie – next elimination – 4pt win – 5-2 – Betfred, Stan James = -4pts
Katie – ‘without Jay’ – 0.5pt e/w – 14-1 – Coral (a third the odds, 1, 2) = -1pt
Peter – next elim – 5-2 – 2pt win – BetVictor = +5pts

X Factor – ‘without Louisa’ – Reggie & Bollie – 7-2 – 2pt win – Paddy Power = +7pts

+67.7pts

Strictly – Helen – 10th elimination – 2pt win – 9-2 – Coral = +9pts
Anita – next elim – 4-1 – 1pt win – Boylesports = -1pt

Next elimination – Kellie – 4pt win – 5-4 – Coral = -4pts

X Factor – buzzwords – ’I’m so proud of you’ – 4-1 – 1pt win – Ladbrokes = +4pts

SPOTY 2015 – Team of the Year – GB women’s football team – 10-1 – 1pt win – William Hill, Coral = -1pt

Strictly – Georgia – Outright – 2pt win – 6-1 – Coral, Ladbrokes, Paddy Power = -2pt

Overall Strictly, XF, SPOTY 2015 profit/loss = +72.7pts

ESC 2015 profit/loss = +104.5pts (+90pts for subscribers; an ROI of over 36% for subscribers)

Total 2015 profit/loss = +177.2pts

BREAKDOWN:

ESC 2015 – total investment = 253pts
profit/loss = +104.5pts
ROI = 41%

Strictly 2015 – total investment = 76.5pts
profit/loss = +52.4pts
ROI = 68%

X Factor 2015 – total investment = 27pts
profit/loss = +1.3pts
ROI = 4.8%

SPOTY 2015 – total investment = 5pts
profit/loss = +19pts
ROI = 380%

2015 TOTAL INVESTMENT = 361.5PTS
TOTAL PROFIT/LOSS = +177.2PTS
TOTAL ROI = 49%

2014 produced a profit figure of +124.7pts

Which means since EntertainmentOdds introduced a fully-audited, points-based system of tv betting recommendations at the start of 2014, the site has made a level stakes profit of +301.9pts.

So if you staked £10 per point on every recommendation given over the last 2 years you would been in profit to the tune of £3,019.

You will notice the X Factor 2015 investment was significantly less than the Strictly 2015 investment. The view here is, X Factor has become increasingly difficult to find a trading edge whereas Strictly, particularly with the weekly markets, offers a far greater edge. And your outlay as a successful gambler should always be a reflection of your confidence.

This is borne out in the results, with a consistent flow of winners during the Strictly run, including 5 of the first 6 eliminations called correctly, whereas X Factor winners were much harder to come by.

It really was an amazingly profitable year of Strictly betting, capped by Jay and Aliona lifting the Glitterball, landing a 6-1 winner in the process. Andy Murray winning SPOTY 2015, advised at 8-1, made it a tremendous win double for the site over the weekend of December 19/20.

TPTB made Jay backers sweat during the Strictly final with their monstrous Kellie ramp-athon ultimately falling short, partly due to the enormous good will Jay and Aliona had built up over the weeks going back to their sensational jive in week 3:

Looking ahead to 2016, Eurovision will be the main focus from now until the ESC 2016 final on Saturday May 14. An ESC subscription service will be offered once again, so keep an eye out for when this goes ‘live’ on the site.

In the meantime, thanks to all commentators for providing their insights, a happy new year to all readers, and here’s hoping for another profitable tv betting year in 2016.

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9 Comments

  1. Stuart

    A great read Rob, lets hope 2016 is even better! The next big market for me are the Oscars but this year the bookies have their choices and offering really low odds for the likely winners unlike last year were Birdman and Boyhood were neck and neck for the win.

    • Rob

      Thanks Stuart. Any views on Golden Globes value?

      I placed an early wager on di Caprio to win Best Actor Oscar at 5-2. The market has moved in my favour.

      Sly Stallone of interest for Best Supporting Actor Oscar. Never won one and could be given to him almost as a lifetime achievement award. His role in ‘Creed’ has been critically acclaimed. Annoyed to have missed out on the really big prices offered initially – he was as big as 100-1!

      • Stuart

        Never followed the golden globes as much as the Oscars Rob, but there’s usually one different result in the big four winners, so I’m guessing it will be best director which may have a different outcome. Got Spotlight at evens for best film which has since dropped significantly so lets hope things don’t shift too much between now and then. I see Stallone is now second favourite at 3/1 so staying out of that one but what a drop!

      • Sagand

        ‘The Big Short’ winning comedy/musical is the value at the globes, ‘The Martian’ is at a disadvantage of not being a comedy. Scott shouldn’t be in the conversation for Director, that’s a three way race between McCarthy/Inarritu/Miller. Miller has been picking up all the critics prizes so I think that is worth a punt too.

        DiCaprio/Larson have their lead prizes in the bag already. Supporting actor is a mess I think Stallone or Elba will win at the globes, but I can’t rule out Tremblay or Ruffalo for the Oscar either.

        I think Vikander should be favourite for Supporting actress at the Oscar. Mara is good but Carol is not the type of film Oscar go for.

        • Rob

          Thanks Sagand. Appreciate your thoughts on GGs and Oscars. Will have a look at those mentioned.

          • Stuart

            Good luck for the Globes tonight. Fingers crossed for Spotlight and Dicaprio. The Martian looks like its going to be a threat to the Big Short for best comedy/musical picture category.

          • Stuart

            And now its one way traffic for the Big Short, interesting!

          • Rob

            Thanks Stuart. I followed Sagand’s advice and backed ‘The Big Short’. Price has come in significantly since but there’s never any way of knowing for sure until the envelope is opened and winner announced. Miller could be the value still for Best Director.

  2. Rob

    Main GG results:

    Best Picture, Drama: The Revenant
    Best Picture, Musical or Comedy: The Martian
    Best Actress, Drama: Brie Larson – Room
    Best Actor, Drama: Leonardo DiCaprio – The Revenant
    Best Actress, Musical or Comedy: Jennifer Lawrence – Joy
    Best Actor, Musical or Comedy: Matt Damon – The Martian
    Best Supporting Actress: Kate Winslet – Steve Jobs
    Best Supporting Actor: Sylvester Stallone – Creed
    Best Director: Alejandro González Iñárritu – The Revenant
    Best Original Song – Motion Picture: Sam Smith & Jimmy Napes for Writing’s On The Wall (Spectre)

    Plenty of favs turned over. Good news for Leo and Sly’s Oscar prospects and The Revenant for Picture/Director. Disappointing night for The Big Short backers with The Martian winning.

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