Strictly Boosts Annual Profit

Dec 29, 2014 by

Strictly Boosts Annual Profit

A quick review of the 2014 tv betting year and analysis of the official, points-based portfolio of recommendations advised to readers on this site.

Eurovision 2014 garnered a profit of +84pts which was carried forward into the autumn run of Strictly and X Factor.

X Factor 2014 was a series dominated by elimination favourites landing which meant it was a disappointing one for this site’s value approach in terms of the weekly markets. The pre-lives portfolio was completely wiped out after Lauren got booted off agonisingly in 4th place which is always the worst finishing position for any each-way investment paying the first 3 places.

Only the Ben/Fleur final 2, advised at 16-1 on November 7 (ahead of week 5), salvaged things during a poor X Factor by this site’s high standards.

All this despite correctly identifying Andrea as a value lay when he was trading below 3 on Betfair. The most lucrative night of the series came in week 6 when Stevi was up against Jay James in the sing-off and was available to lay below 1.1 on Betfair.

Strictly 2014 was much more profitable this year, Simon landing the Top Male and Top 3 money (both advised at 6-1) and Caroline proving a wise pre-lives pick to be Top Female at 9-2.

The weekly markets on Strictly were particularly lucrative including Judy Murray’s 24pt total in week 8 at Blackpool (16-1), Caroline achieving the highest score in week 10 with her Charleston at 10-1, and Jake’s semi-final elimination at 8-1.

The biggest miss of the series, in terms of the advice offered here, was Pixie at 100-1 to be eliminated in the quarter-final. Yours truly managed a whole £5 at this price but during the frenetic betting action of a Saturday night, with Strictly and X Factor going on, this was not flagged up on the site.

The last play of the series that paid off was a dutch of Caroline and Frankie to finish 3rd, both at 6-1, with this Betfred bet paying out in full on Frankie finishing 3rd.

All you can ever do as a serious investor in tv betting markets is seek to achieve a long-term profit and this continued throughout 2014, as the site turned a profit of +124.72pts to a 1pt level stake.

This means that if you placed bets on all the recommendations, according to the advised staking plan, and based on a £10 per point value, you will be in profit to the tune of £1,247.20.

The full breakdown of X Factor, Strictly and other tv betting recommendations given since Eurovision 2014 can be seen below.

A happy and prosperous new year to all readers. Here’s hoping for an even more profitable 2015.

SCD/XF OFFICIAL PORTFOLIO OF BETS 2014:

SCD pre-lives –

September 4:
Thom Evans: 6pt win 13-2 (SkyBet) = -6pts
Caroline Flack: 6pt win Top Female – 9-2 (Boylesports) = +27pts
Judy Murray: 0.5pt e/w – 33-1 (Ladbrokes, Coral), fifth the odds, first 3 = -1pt
1pt win Top Female – 16-1 (widely available) = -1pt
Steve Backshall: 2pt e/w 16-1 (Ladbrokes), fifth the odds, first 3 = -4pts
2pt win Top Male – 8-1 (Boylesports) = -2pts

September 30:
Simon Webbe – 5pts e/w, 5-1 (a fifth the odds first 3), Ladbrokes = 0pts

October 5:
Jake Wood – Outright – 9-2 (Ladbrokes, Betfred) – 8pt win = -8pts

(+5)

X Factor pre-lives –

October 6:
Lauren Platt – 8pts e/w 17-2 (SportingBet)  = -16pts
Only The Young – 2pts e/w 28-1 (Skybet) – 32 on Betfair = -4pts
Steph Nala – 1pt e/w 25-1 (bet365, Ladbrokes) – 48 on Betfair = -2pts
Winning Mentor: Louis – 4-1 (widely available) – 6pt win, Cheryl – 9-2 (widely available) – 6pt win = -12pts
First to lose all acts – Mel B – 5-1 (Boylesports) – 4pt win, Simon – 3-1 (widely available) – 6pt win = -10pts

October 9:
Girls wildcard (Lola) – 14-1 – 4pt win – William Hill = -4pts

October 12:
Stevi – 1st elimination – 14-1 – 1pt win – SkyBet, Betfred  = -1pt
Stevi saved by judges – 6-1 – 2pt win – Skybet = -2pt
Stevi 2nd elimination – 7-1 – 2pt win – Skybet = -2pt

October 18:
highest scorer – Simon Webbe – 1pt e/w – 16-1 – Coral (third the odds, 1, 2) = -2pt
highest scorer – Jake Wood – 2pt win – 11-4 – Coral = +1.75pts (dead heat first)

(-48.25)

October 19:
Fleur – to be in the bottom 3 – 9-2 – 4pt win (Betfred) = -4pt
Fleur – 3rd elimination – 40-1 – 1pt win (Boyles, Stan James) = -1pt

October 22:
Alison – next elimination – 10-1 – Ladbrokes – 3pt win = -3pt

October 25:
Scott – next elimination – 4pt win – 7-4 – Coral = -4pt

October 26:
Stevi – to be in bottom 2 – 4pt win – 3-1 (Ladbrokes) = -4pts
Jay – to be bottom 2 – 1pt win – 25-1 (widely available) = -1pt

October 28:
Scott – next elimination – 4pt win – 5-2 – bet365 = +10pts

October 31:
Sunetra – bottom 2 – 4pt win – 4-1 Ladbrokes = -4pts

Alison – bottom 2 – 4pt win – 9-4 Ladbrokes = +9pts
Steve – highest scorer – 0.5pt e/w – 33-1 – Coral (40-1 available win-only with William Hill) = -1pt

Simon – highest scorer – 0.5pt e/w – 25-1 – Coral = -1pt

November 1:
Steve – next elim – 12-1 – Coral – 1pt win = -1pt

Sunetra – next elim – 12-1 – Coral – 1pt win = -1pt

November 2:
Stevi – bottom 2 – 7-2 – Ladbrokes – 4pt win = -4pt

Fleur – bottom 2 – 7-2 – Ladbrokes – 4pt win = -4pt

Jay – bottom 2 – 6-1 – Ladbrokes & William Hill – 3pt win = -3pt

Lauren – bottom 2 – 16-1 – Skybet – 1pt win = -1pt

Bottom 2 combos, all with Skybet:
Jay, Fleur – 33-1 – 0.5pt win

Jay, Stevi – 40-1 – 0.5pt win

Fleur, Stevi – 28-1 – 0.5pt win

Lauren, Fleur – 100-1 – 0.25pt win

Lauren, Jay – 150-1 – 0.25pt win

Lauren, Stevi – 125-1 – 0.25pt win = -2.25pts

(-68.5)

November 7:
Steve – highest score – 20-1 – 1pt e/w – Coral = -2pts

Jay – next elimination – 14-1 – 1pt win – bet365 = -1pt
Lauren & Ben – final 2 – 9-1 – 4pt win – Ladbrokes = -4pts
Fleur & Ben – final 2 – 16-1 – 2pt win – Ladbrokes = +32pts

November 8:
Sunetra – 13-2 – next elimination – 2pt win – Coral = -2pts

Jake – 25-1 – next elimination – 1pt win – Paddy Power = -1pt

November 9:
Stevi – to be eliminated – 10-1 – 1pt win – Ladbrokes, b365 = -1pt
Stevi – to be bottom 2 – 4-1 – 2pt win – Ladbrokes = -2pts

Fleur – to be bottom 2 – 8-1 – 1pt win – Ladbrokes = -1pt

Stevi & Jay – bottom 2 combo – 10-1 – 1pt win – Skybet = -1pt

Jay & Fleur – bottom 2 combo – 20-1 – 0.5pt win – bwin = -0.5pt

Stevi & Fleur – bttom 2 combo – 40-1 – 0.25pt win – bwin, Skybet = -0.25pt

November 11:
Judy – week 8 score – 23 – 12-1 – 2pt win – Ladbrokes = -2pt
24 – 16-1 – 2pt win – Ladbrokes = +32pts
25 or over – 12-1 – 2pt win – Ladbrokes = -2pt
Judy – 22pts – 12-1 – 1pt win – Ladbrokes = -1pt

(-25.25)

November 15:
Lauren – next elimination – 50-1 – 1pt win – Paddy Power = -1pt
First to lose all acts – Cheryl – 4-1 – 4pt win – Betfred = -4pt

Sunetra – next elimination – 100-30 – 4pt win – Boylesports = -4pt
Sunetra – lowest scorer (without Judy) – 11-8 – 4pt win – Coral = +5.5pt
Caroline – highest score – 7-2 – 2pt win – Coral = -2pt
Jake – highest score – 9-2 – 1pt e/w – Coral = -2pt
Simon – highest score – 14-1 – 0.5pt e/w – Coral = +5.17pts
Steve – to be eliminated – 2pt win – 6-1 – Coral = -2pt

(-29.58)

November 16:
Lauren & Jay – bottom 2 combo – 8-1 – 1pt win = -1pt
Lauren & Stevi – bottom 2 combo – 9-1 – 1pt win = -1pt
Lauren & SK – bottom 2 combo – 12-1 – 1pt win = -1pt

November 17:
Steve – next elimination – 4pt win – 5-2 – Ladbrokes = +10pts

(-22.58)

November 21:
Ben – to be eliminated this weekend – 10-1 – 1pt win – bwin = -1pt
Andrea – to be eliminated – 6-1 – 1pt win – bwin = -1pt
Strictly – Jake – highest score – 3-1 – 3pt win – Coral/William Hill = +4.5pts
Simon – highest score – 13-2 – 2pt e/w – Coral = -4pts
Simon – top 3 finish – 6-1 – 2pt win – Paddy Power = +12pts

November 22:
Simon – Top Male – 2pt win – 6-1 – Stan James = +12pts

(-0.08)

November 23:
Mel B – first mentor to lose all acts – 2pt win – 8-1 – Ladbrokes = -2pts

November 29:
Andrea – to be eliminated – 3-1 – 3pt win – widely available = -3pts
Ben – to be eliminated – 7-1 – 1pt win – widely available = -1pt

Caroline – highest score – 10-1 – 2pt win – Ladbrokes = +20pts
Frankie – highest score – 100-30 – 3pt win – William Hill = -3pts

November 30:
Lauren & SK – bottom 2 combo – 8pt win – 13-8 – bwin = +13pts
Fleur & SK – bottom 2 combo – 2pt win – 17-2 – skybet = -2pts
Fleur & Lauren – bottom 2 combo – 2pt win – 15-2 – skybet = -2pts

(+19.92)

December 6:
Jake Wood – lowest score – 8-1 – 2pt win – Coral = -2pt
Jake Wood – next elimination – 10-1 – 2pt win – widely available = -2pt
Simon Webbe – Outright – 9-1 – 1pt e/w (a fifth the odds, first 3) = +0.8pt
Frankie – highest score – 1pt e/w – 4-1 – Coral = -2pt

December 7:
Andrea – next elimination – 9-2 – 2pt win – widely available = -2pts

December 13:
Ben-Andrea – straight forecast – 9-1 – 2pt win – Boylesports = -2pts
Simon – highest score – 4pt win – 5-2 – Coral = -4pts
Jake – lowest score – 2pt win – 9-2 – Coral = +9pts
Jake – next elimination – 8-1 – 2pt win – widely available = +16pts

(+31.72)

December 20:
Caroline – to finish 3rd – 6-1 – 2pt win – Betfred = -2pts
Frankie – to finish 3rd – 6-1 – 2pt win – Betfred = +12pts

Other TV bets:

December 11:
Miss World 2014 – Miss India – 8-1 – 2pt e/w – Skybet = -4pts

Miss Hungary – 20-1 – 0.5pt e/w – Skybet = +1.5pts

Miss Netherlands – 20-1 – 0.5pt e/w – William Hill = -1pt

Miss Guyana – 25-1 – 0.5pt e/w – William Hill = -1pt

SPOTY 2014 – Jo Pavey – to finish 3rd – 13-8 – 4pt win – Ladbrokes = +6.5pts
to finish 2nd – 10-1 – 1pt win – Ladbrokes = -1pt

Miranda – Top Christmas Day Ratings – 4-1 – 2pt win – BetVictor = -2pt

(+40.72)

Profit/Loss = +40.72pts
Eurovision 2014 = +84pts
Total annual profit/loss figure = +124.72pts (to a 1pt level stake)

5 Comments

  1. Nice stats Rob and a great site that I’ve only started following recently. I’ll be back in 2015 for sure.

    I made your ROI about 17% for your ex-ESC bets, do you know what it was for your ESC bets at all if you have it handy?

    Cheers
    Paul

    • Rob

      Hi Paul. Thanks for dropping by and commenting.

      Just having a quick look back, my advised ESC 2014 investments totalled 243pts. Profit was +84pts, so ROI of 34.5%.

      My aim at every ESC is to achieve a personal ROI in the 25-40% range. The first 2 years of seriously trading it, I surpassed 40%. That was back in 2010 and 2011.

      In 2012 it was closer to 25%. 2013 was my worst year when it fell to only around 5% – this was the year a new scoring system was adopted so it was harder to find an edge. 2014 was a return to form, largely thanks to The Netherlands winning semi 1, advised here at 50-1.

      It still hurts they came 2nd in the final as victory would have been my biggest ever ESC win, having backed them initially at 250-1.

      I plan to be in Vienna for ESC 2015, and Eurovision will be the site’s main focus through to the final on May 23.

  2. Rob

    I’ve added a link to your site, Paul 🙂

    • Very much appreciated Rob. Your linked on mine too 🙂

      This coming year I’ll be looking to also provide tips on the site to the Big Brother shows and other popularity contests.

      Happy New Year and here’s to a successful 2015.

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