Strictly & X Factor Shake-Ups

Aug 21, 2013 by Rob

EntertainmentOdds is back from its summer hols and ready to launch into the autumn season of tv betting opportunities. Which essentially means, Strictly & X Factor all the way to Christmas.

The biggest news is the X Factor shake-up in how the voting will work, revealed today and which you can read in full here.

A ‘flash vote’ lasting 200 seconds after all the acts have performed on a Saturday night would suggest those with late starting order positions will be favoured and those on early will be in danger of disappearing down the old memory plug-hole. The shorter window will certainly motivate tweenies in their support of boy bands or solo male heart-throbs.

The act with the lowest vote total will automatically be in the sing-off on the Sunday night. This story, which may not be 100% accurate, suggests phone lines will only re-open during Sunday night’s show and the act that receives the lowest number of votes during Sunday’s show will then join the last-placer from Saturday night in the sing-off.

Interestingly, if it goes to dead-lock, it’ll be the act that received the fewest votes on the Saturday night who will be eliminated. This would appear to give TPTB greater control given they will set their sights on their target(s) on a Saturday night, and can then use dead-lock almost as an extra insurance policy if they succeed in getting the act they want to be bottom of the vote on a Saturday night, bottom of the public vote on the Saturday night.

They will also have the data to hand from the Saturday night flash vote giving them room to potentially further manipulate things during the Sunday night show if they so wish – perhaps bigging up a contestant that is 2nd bottom of the public vote they would rather not see in the sing-off.

Nicole will be mentoring the Girls, Louis the Boys, Gary the Groups, and the returning Sharon, the Overs. There has been a fair bit of news regarding auditions and boot camp and new twists they have introduced. We will be seeing plenty of returnees during the audition process including Jade Richards, Melanie McCabe, Rough Copy and Joseph Whelan. With filming of Judges’ Houses upcoming, keep an eye on the Digital Spy X Factor forum for the latest news regarding who has made it through to the live shows.

The X Factor season opener will be a week on Saturday (August 31), double episodes airing on the Saturday and the Sunday. The final is scheduled to air on December 15. This is the same evening slated for BBC1’s 2013 Sports Personality Of The Year show.

Over at Strictly, pro dancers Erin, Flavia, Vincent and Aliona have all left the show replaced by Kevin Clifton, Janette Manrara, Iveta Lukosiute and Aljaz Skorjanec. Given this news, is there any value knocking around before these shows launch? Possibly, yes.

BetVictor and Stan James have prices on this year’s winning pro on Strictly and it is surprising to see Anton priced as favourite.

If he is not partnered with a comedy act, which would likely scupper his winning chance, his Latin dancing is woeful. At the prices, the 3 to get on side look to be Artem (14-1, Stan James), Pasha (16-1) and Natalie (12-1).

Artem drew something of a short straw last year being partnered with Fern Britton so should get a more capable partner this year. He remains an excellent teacher and of course won the series in 2010 partnering Kara.

Pasha has only competed in the last 2 series and has made the final on both occasions with Chelsee Healey and Kimberley Walsh. The slight risk with Pasha is he may be due a duffer.

With male heart-throbs winning the last 2 series (Louis Smith, Harry Judd)  there is a further argument they will push for a female winner this year and to try and make this happen they may well heavily load this year’s cast on the female side.

The counter-argument to this is, the Beeb are not remotely in the league of Syco when it comes to viewer manipulation, and good looking, middle England-friendly guy + excellent dancer on Strictly can rapidly turn into a runaway caboose in terms of the public vote, led by the whooping and hollering of women in the live studio audience.

Fo this reason it seems wise to add Natalie to the pre-series portfolio. She had Michael Vaughan last year, Audley Harrison the year before that. Prior to that she was paired with Ricky Whittle and Scott Maslen and our money would be a return to a Ricky/Scott standard of partner this year, and Natalie is arguably the best teacher on the show.

Our staking plan would be 2pt win Artem; 1pt win Pasha and 1pt win Natalie. Look out for the next article which will appear with an early assessment of X Factor markets during the auditions.