The Chapman Report (3)

Nov 25, 2025 by Jeremy

The absence of a dance-off in Blackpool Week due to La Voix’s withdrawal did not mean an absence of activity on the Strictly Winner market where Karen’s 39 for the fiercest paso you’ll ever see saw the Lioness leap over Lewis and tackle George for favouritism.

In contrast, Lewis’s pluperfect Charleston, rated by one judge the greatest celebrity performance in the history of the competition and awarded the maximum 40, saw him regress to 6.8 in the betting which didn’t make much sense as he lit the place up.

From that, it is not unreasonable to conclude, like West End musical theatre star Amber, he arrived with too much dance experience for the voting public to fall in love with. As a runner-up in Sky One’s Got To Dance and a child actor in Billy Elliot The Musical Lewis has not made the obligatory “journey”.

Just ask Layton Williams, a superior dancer to both in my view. Recently an Olivier award winner for Titanique, he lost out in the 2023 final to ex-Corrie star Ellie Leach who couldn’t hold a candle to him. If that’s a guide then this year’s final looks a match between social media star George and Karen, a Lioness who became a tigress in a frighteningly bold paso that showed she can act too.

Whereas Lewis and Amber may be technically more proficient, the others have made the biggest impact among the improvers who started from scratch. Now Karen is a match for both – at least on dances she’s comfortable with. And 39 will give her the missing ingredient – confidence.

Balvinder has also been on the obligatory “journey” and made dramatic strides. The judges have saved her four times. Why not five? Chances are she’ll be in this week’s dance-off and as Amber, despite huge ability, is friendless in the betting (still 80) and presumably with the public too as she has already danced off once, there could be a bit of value in taking Amber at 11 on Betfair to be next to go. There were only three points between Bal and Amber on Saturday and the EastEnders star is getting closer week on week.

As a clever clog who took 20 about Karen in September, I’m naturally chuffed she’s now seen as George’s main threat and the cut to 2.94 is a big one. There’s a possibility she’s peaked too early but the bigger concern is the size of George’s fan club. He has 636K followers on YouTube, 815K on Instagram, 94K on X and 2.4 million on Tik Tok. How do you take on a juggernaut like that?

Although I thought 39 was over-generous for his salsa (should George really have got as many as the amazing Karen, or am I biased?) it was still a big step-up and going into Week 10 it’s hard to see anyone outside the Big Three picking up the glitterball. With George trading at evens or slight odd-against on the exchanges, now might be the time to hedge on the jolly if you’re on either or both of the other two.

The successors to Tess and Claudia as presenters won’t apparently be named until next year in light of even more bad publicity for the tainted show (maybe it will be 23 and out – audiences are down from a peak of 10m to 6m).

That hasn’t stopped Coral/Ladbrokes putting up a list of contenders and remember you probably have two chances of getting paid out. I’d take on their 2/1 favourite Fleur East as I’m not a fan of her work on It Takes Two (the more experienced Janet , for me, has more polish) and would be more in favour of a past Takes Two host in Zoe Ball at 5/1.

And don’t be surprised if Anton du Beke moves over from judge to join whoever gets the gig. He’s always fancied himself as a song-and-dance comedian in the Brucie mould, is a proven housewives’ favourite, clean as a whistle too (very important right now) and a committed BBC man.

I think they will play safe and choose two of their own rather than look outside. Moreover, the job would stretch him more than being Shirley’s stooge and at 12/1 he might be a bet. Irritating though he might be, anything would be preferable to the exaggerated campness and whiny sing-song of Alan Carr, the Celebrity Traitors winner who is on a roll and very much in the Beeb’s good books.

Punters on Lando Norris for the F1 crown or SPOTY must have been tearing their hair out when the Brit got himself DQ’d in Las Vegas but because chief rival Piastri also got a red card, he’s actually closer to being world champion than before – still 24 points ahead but now with only 58 points left on the table instead of 84.

True, he has a more formidable threat in champion Max Verstappen, now tied for second. Even so, with only two races left, if you fancied him for SPOTY before, every reason to press up at 5.

By clinching his seventh DP World Tour money-list title, golf star Rory McIlroy predictably came in for more SPOTY support and is closing in on the fading longtime favourite Chloe Kelly, now the biggest price she has been for months.

The Lionesses’ goal-scoring heroine would be the third female footballer to win in four years and I can’t believe that’s going to happen, especially with team-mate Hannah Hampton winning BBC Women’s Footballer of the Year, and potentially splitting the Lioness vote with Kelly, presuming both make the shortlist. Time for the guys – but which one?