Winning Post

Dec 28, 2017 by Rob

The traditional analysis of the EntertainmentOdds trading year reveals a profit in 2017 of +98.6pts. This continues the site’s impressive run of fully audited trading results in the last four years.

The Strictly/X Factor/SPOTY 2017 subscription yielded a profit of +26.1pts (ROI 26%). Subscribers also enjoyed valuable ‘in-running’ analysis of these three shows including Aston advised as an elimination punt in week 7 of Strictly at best available odds on the night of his shock 200-1 elimination.

Debbie, advised pre-series at 28-1 e/w and Top Female at 12-1, was this year’s ‘close but no cigar’ as she ended up in a 3-way tie for 2nd place, and a 3-way tie for Top Female. The change of final format of Strictly very late in the day also impacted winnings with dead-heat rules being applied.

X Factor profit was hard to come by as the change of format limited opportunities and a series of short-priced eliminations landing did not suit this site’s value approach.

Jonathan Rea was identified as this year’s Top 3 value at Sports Personality and it was good to see him achieve 2nd place on a night of stunning shocks with red-hot favourite Anthony Joshua missing 3rd place by 18 votes much to the delight of 1.01 Top 3 layers.

The mainstay of 2017 profits came courtesy of Eurovision (+72.5pts) with Portugal advised to subscribers at 12-1 and 16-1 pre-rehearsals.

It was good to read that Salvador is recovering well from a heart transplant operation and hopes to be well enough to make an appearance at this year’s Eurovision in Lisbon. His victory in Kiev last May was certainly the highlight of the trading year:

The key to trading success is consistency over the long-term and since introducing a points-based system of recommendations in 2014 the site has garnered lucrative winnings every year resulting in an overall profit of +537pts to a 1pt level stake.

Eurovision will again be the site’s main focus in the coming months leading all the way through to the final on May 12, and a Eurovision 2018 subscription will be offered in the new year.

In the meantime, I would like to wish all readers a very happy and prosperous 2018.

Strictly/XF/SPOTY 2017 investment portfolio:

Strictly pre-lives:

Mollie King – 9-2 (Stan James) – 3pt e/w (quarter the odds, first 3 places) = -6pts

Gemma Atkinson – 8-1 (SunBets, 7-1 with SkyBet and Paddy Power) – 2pt e/w (quarter the odds, first 3 places) = 0pts

Debbie McGee – 28-1 (Winner) 25-1 with SunBets & MarathonBet – 1pt e/w (quarter the odds, first 3 places) = +3.33pts

Top Female – 12-1 (widely available) – 1pt win = +3.33pts

Davood Ghadami – Top Male – 9-2 (widely available) – 4pt win = -4pts

Rev Richard Coles – Top Male – 20-1 (Winner) 18-1 with Marathonbet – 1pt win = -1pt

Pre-week 1:

Strictly Outright – Alex B – 6-1 – 2pt win (Betstars) = -2pts

Strictly 1st elimination – Charlotte – 6-1 – 1pt win (Coral/Ladbrokes) = -1pt

Brian – 12-1 – 1pt win (Coral/Ladbrokes) = -1pt

Any couple to score 15 or under – 5-1 – 1pt win – Ladbrokes/Coral = -1pt

Pre-week 2:

15 or lower – 9-2 – 2pt win – Coral/Ladbrokes = +9pts
1st elimination – Charlotte – 16-1 – 0.5pt win – Ladbrokes/Coral, Betfred, Paddy Power = -0.5pts
Any judge to award a 10 – 20-1 – 0.5pt win – Ladbrokes/Coral = -0.5pts = -0.5pts

Pre-week 3:

Outright – Gemma – 10-1 – 1pt e/w (quarter the odds, 3 places) – bet365, Skybet, sportingbet, marathonbet, BetVictor = +0.33pts

In-running:

2nd elim – Simon – 4-1 – 2pt win – Ladbrokes/Coral = -2pts

Pre-week 4:

3rd elimination – Brian – 2pt win – 3-1 – Ladbrokes/Coral, Paddy Power, Sportingbet, Betfair Sportsbook = -2pts

Pre-week 6:

ALL WITH CORAL/LADBROKES

Gemma vs Debbie – Debbie – Evens – 2pt win = +2pts

Simon vs Ruth – Ruth – 4-5 – 2.5pt win = +2pts

Davood vs Jonnie – Davood – 6-5 – 2pt win = +2.4pts

Pre-week 7

Jonnie – 6th elimination – 1pt win – 20-1 – William Hill, Paddy Power = -1pt

Joe – Top Male – 2pt win – 4-1 – generally available (9-2 with Boylesports, Skybet and Betway) = +9pts

Pre-week 8

7th elimination – Jonnie – 1pt win – 6-1 – b365, Ladbrokes/Coral = -1pt

Pre-week 9

Outright – Joe – 1pt e/w (3 places, a fifth the odds) – 6-1 – Coral/Ladbrokes = +7.2pts

8th elimination – Jonnie – 7-4 (widely available) – 2pt win = +3.5pts
Gemma – 14-1 – 1pt win – bet365, Ladbrokes/Coral, Paddy Power = -1pt
Davood – 10-1 – 1pt win – Ladbrokes/Coral = -1pt

Pre-week 10

9th elimination – Mollie – 2pt win – 2-1 – widely available = -2pts

Pre-semi-final

11th elimination – Gemma – 7-4 – 2pt win – b365, Betfred, Coral/Ladbrokes (9-4 with Stan James) = -2pt

Outright – Joe – 11-8 – 4pt win – William Hill, Betstars, BetVictor = +5.5pts

Strictly 2017 = +18.6pts

X Factor pre-lives:

X Factor – Winning Manager – Sharon – 3-1 – 5pt win (BetVictor, Ladbrokes, Coral) = -5pts

Simon – 3-1 – 5pt win (Betfred, BetVictor, Winner) 7-2 with Stan James = +17.5pts

Grace – 5-2 – 8pt win – Skybet = -8pts

Holly – 4-1 – 5pt win – Ladbrokes/Coral, William Hill = -5pts

The Cutkelvins – 12-1 – 2pt e/w (3 places, a quarter the odds) – Ladbrokes/Coral = -4pts

Rai-Elle – 25-1 – 1pt e/w (3 places, a quarter the odds) – Skybet = -2pts

Tracy Leanne – Top Over – 12-1 – 1pt win – Skybet (10-1 with Coral/Ladbrokes) = -1pt

X Factor – pre-week 2 live shows:

3rd elimination – Sam – 5-2 – 2pt win – William Hill (9-4 with SkyBet) = -2pts

Rak-Su – 8pt win – 5-4 – widely available = +10pts

X Factor – pre-live show 8:

Top Over – Matt – 11-2 – 1pt win – Coral/Ladbrokes = -1pt

X Factor – pre-semi-final

Next elimination – Matt – 2pt win – 7-4 – William Hill = +3.5pts

X Factor 2017 = +3pts

SPOTY 2017:

Jonathan Rea – top 3 – 9-4 – 2pt win – Coral/Ladbrokes (2-1 with Winner, 15-8 with Skybet) = +4.5pts

SPOTY 2017 = +4.5pts

BREAKDOWN –

Strictly 2017:
Total Investment = 56.5pts
Total Return = 75.1pts
Profit = +18.6pts (ROI = 33%)

X Factor 2017:
Total Investment = 43pts
Total Return = 46pts
Profit = +3pts (ROI = 7%)

SPOTY 2017:
Total Investment = 2pts
Total Return = 6.5pts
Profit = +4.5pts (ROI = 225%)

SCD/XF/SPOTY 2017:
Total Investment = 101.5pts
Total Return = 127.6pts
Profit = +26.1pts (ROI = 26%)

ESC 2017:
Total Investment = 147pts
Total Return = 219.5pts
Profit = +72.5pts (ROI = 49%)

2017:
Total Investment = 248.5pts
Total Return = 347.1pts
Total profit/loss = +98.6pts
ROI = 40%

EntertainmentOdds Annual Profit Figures:

2014 – +124.7pts
2015 – +177.2pts
2016 – +136.7pts
2017 – +98.6pts