Abi Under Threat

Oct 20, 2013 by

Abi Under Threat

Who said tv betting is dull? It was a night for cool heads, and frantic re-jigging of market positions, on news Miss Dynamix would not be performing and had a bye through to next week.

It was also a case of fastest finger first on Betfair as the bottom 2, bottom 2 combo, flashvote last place and 2nd elimination markets took on a different complexion with plenty of value up for grabs.

If you followed the reasoning put forward here on Friday, Shelley suddenly looked a lot more vulnerable of ending up in the bottom 2 and Kingsland Road of finishing last on the flashvote. That Kingsland Road scenario looked an even likelier prospect when it transpired they were 2nd up, sandwiched between 2 big hitters in Sam B and Nicholas.

We were happy to back Kingsland R even more to finish in the bottom 2 (as advised on Friday at 5-1) and also get stuck into the 9-1 Kingsland R to finish last on the flashvote and 14-1 for elimination. We hope you did too.

The evening got underway with the Horsewoman of the Apocalyse, aka Nicole, doing her best to start digging Sam B’s grave. She was in the coffin slot already and Nicole was tasting blood. The breaks are firmly being applied on the big belter already, while Nicholas also got the sort of judges’ treatment that suggested they are eager to ensure this potential voting behemoth doesn’t get out of the starting stalls during this series.

Abi was exposed again, and also put herself in the firing line for bottom 2 with a weak effort pointed out as such by the judges. Shelley was on surprisingly early. They did their best to talk up her fun take on Single Ladies but this did little to ease concerns over her safety this week.

Sam Callahan was a little better than expected before Tamera produced her best performance to date, a performance that really stood out on the night. Luke put in a sound effort while Rough Copy were even more out of tune that last week. Hannah looked to have an open goal from the pimp slot but produced something of a Diana Ross moment – that’s one for those who recall the opening ceremony to World Cup 1994.

She didn’t deliver the vocal convincingly at all and the way she sings it is becoming apparent that the deep soul notes are all she has in her locker. The song overall sounded shouty in some places, flat in others and that’s 2 pretty shoddy live performances by her in 2 weeks.

As for this evening, we are far from confident Shelley will avoid the bottom 2 now and have reduced liabilities. She does have a sporting chance however. At least the longer voting window opens up the chance for normal X Factor rules to kick in, the ramp to take effect, and her older fans to have more of a say putting some votes her way.

The other contestant right in the mix for bottom 2 has to be Abi and looking at the odds this morning, it feels a little bit like deja vu after advising backing Lorna to be eliminated last week at 5-1. It certainly looks the value call to back Abi to be eliminated at 5-1 with Ladbrokes.

With Miss Dynamix looking like they might have to become a duet, or draft in a new 3rd member (Melanie McCabe anyone? The new Eternal?), there are more question marks over their future. The flipside argument is, this could yet be the start of an epic journey for them, especially if TPTB now see Kingsland R as surplus to requirements.

Clearly, they are really trying to push Rough Copy, so from this perspective maybe it suits to jettison Kingsland R early. But if Shelley does land bottom 2 would they save her again?

It is worth remembering that if Abi or Shelley are announced bottom 2 tonight they will only need 2 ‘save’ votes to survive and will already have 1 vote in the bank from their mentor. For Abi to be eliminated it will need both Sharon and Louis to save Kingsland R. For Shelley to be eliminated it will need both Nicole and Louis to save Kingsland R, and this will, of course, leave Sharon with only one act.

Given the spin-off show was doing its best to big up Shelley last night, the show is probably hoping Shelley avoids the bottom 2 tonight as was probably the plan before Miss Dynamix had to pull out. If it does end up Abi vs Kingsland Road, that is a tough one to call because TPTB may have had to change tack in their thinking due to Miss Dynamix’s stay of execution this week.


  1. Henry VIII

    Good stuff as usual Rob. I think if it’s Shelley B2 they’ll save her over KR. I hope Shelley escapes B2 because it would mean the bounce effect is still happening.

    As you say if it’s Abi B2 it’s a tough one but after the de-ramping they gave her last night I think they’d boot her.

  2. Rob

    Abi’s elimination price has come in throughout the day, now best-priced 7-2.

    Think you might be right, henry, if Abi is b2.

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