Are They Ghana Be Finalists?

Nov 13, 2015 by

Are They Ghana Be Finalists?

Last weekend Daily Star Sunday reported that Anton received 23% of the vote in week 1, with Louisa on 13% and Seann on 12%. It later Tweeted that 4th Impact polled 4th and Monica 5th.

What we witnessed on X Factor last Saturday was an almighty hatchet job on Anton and a similar one for Monica. 4th Impact were on first and felt somewhat forgotten on the night too, while Cowell managed to help kill Seann’s vote by focusing on his song being a lazy choice.

Let’s put it this way: it wasn’t a great night for any of Louisa’s closest rivals according to that week 1 vote leak. Meanwhile, Che, who is noticeable by his absence in the top 5 on the vote in week 1, and Lauren, also noticeably absent, both enjoyed significant ramping. What exactly were TPTB up to here?

You have to conclude they were testing out how their devious machinations could alter the vote. The Che push could have been a mechanism to help divert votes away from Anton and Lauren’s pimp tested out to see how much higher they could push her vote.

They might have been playing the long game here given the fact Lauren’s exit from the show would potentially lead to a handy vote transference across to Louisa. They are both Essex girls, let’s not forget, and will be hitting a similar demographic of voter.

The Star had Ben on 50% in the semi-final last year with Fleur on 22% but the actual voting percentages turned out to be Ben 36%, Fleur 24%, Lauren 20%, Andrea 19%. While this casts some doubt over the veracity of its info, the inference here is the Star possibly only got to see the phone vote percentages last year.

That seems feasible as we have been dealing in a new paradigm regarding the free app vote and its impact on contestants’ overall vote percentages. You could easily envisage a lot of teen girls giving someone like last year’s Lauren a significant boost courtesy of multi-voting via the app while Ben and Andrea probably fared less well on this side of the equation.

The burning question that remains is whether again the Star is only quoting phone vote percentages this year. Much like Ben and Andrea last year, you could see Anton being more popular with older viewers who phone vote, while someone like Louisa would likely be getting a healthy boost on the app side of things, similar to Lauren last year.

Back to this week and both Che and Anton have songs very much in their comfort zone. Could this lead to the same sort of ‘lazy’ accusations Cowell hit Seann with last week? Or are they simply happy to keep them both simmering on a slow, ‘one trick pony’ setting?

While ’When A Man Loves A Woman’ (a hit in 1966) might be popular with older viewers, they seem to be pushing Che further down the old-fashioned road after last week’s similarly dusted off ‘You Can’t Hurry Love’ – originally a 1966 song too. Interesting fact: Steve Brookstein also sang ‘When A Man Loves A Woman’ in series 1.

Meanwhile, Anton has the done-to-death ballad ‘I Have Nothing’. In past X Factors male contestants to have sung this: Andy Abraham, Danyl Johnson (one of his 2 semi-final songs, which saw him eliminated as he was bottom of the public vote) and Andrea Faustini (the week he was in the bottom 2).

Che and Anton are certainly not being guided down a relevant path at the moment and appear to be fighting over a similar sort of demo, as we discovered this week that while X Factor ratings are down, the 16-34 audience share is growing, up to 46%.

It is also worth remembering similar soul crooner Jahmene only made the final in 2012 on the back of a 9-week sympathy edit of epic proportions. It seems unlikely Che or Anton will be given the chance to call upon the same sort of arsenal of sob stories while Anton’s negative press coverage continues to suggest TPTB are happy to slowly dismantle his vote.

The biggest fascination ahead of tomorrow is the song choices for both Monica – Bang, Bang (My Baby Shot Me Down) – and Lauren – Licence To Kill. These proved successful assassination songs for Sophie Habibis and Craig Colton back in 2011.

Of course, poor Sophie got the kitchen sink of a nuking – her sat in a quiet pub talking to her friend while trying to convey the message she was creating an amazing buzz back home; the stage looking like Hades; and Cowell’s henchman Louis Walsh calling her ‘a secretary that sings at the weekend’.

Of the two, Licence To Kill looks the tougher assignment vocally and a deramping for Lauren could definitely be on the cards after she left the house this week and rumblings she isn’t coping well with the pressures of the show.

Could Lauren’s trajectory in this series even follow the same path as Seann’s? Riding high in the public vote following a pimp slot only to fall into the bottom 3 the following week. It’s not inconceivable.

Monica and Lauren both look at risk of bottom 3 pre-show as does Max who has Bruce Springstein’s tepid ‘Secret Garden’. This looks like being a bit of a snooze-fest potentially putting him in trouble. After being on 9th out of 11 last week there is also a good chance Max will find himself on early tomorrow night.

As for Mason, on song choice alone, ’Men In Black’ does not scream the sort of tune that will enable him to bounce above three other contestants this week. But will they try and help him more than they did Kiera last Saturday, and at least enough to push him above last place on the pv?

It’s got a cool vibe that will suit, and he can at least hope for a later slot than 2/11 last week but you would have to mark Mason as also in danger pre-show.

This week there has been gathering momentum behind Reggie n Bollie. If you missed it in the Comments section, they were advised here at 14-1 (1pt e/w first 3 places) while the price lasted. They are now a best-priced 9-1 e/w first 3 places. They received the mother of all pimps last week with their VT right up there with some of Syco’s finest in terms of generating support.

The thinking here is, they would potentially be ideal finalist material. Their fun, uptempo tunes are a much-needed, feel-good boost to the show and the party atmosphere they generate could see them cast as the perfect support act come this year’s final.

‘Who Let The Dogs Out’ looks teed up for another entertaining interlude from the likeable Ghanaian duo. While RnB’s stock is on the rise, the opposite is true of their Group rivals, 4th Impact. They’ve been given one of Beyonce’s less well known hit songs, ‘Work It Out’.

After originally being cast as innocent young cherubs heading to the lives, 4th Impact were styled like jail bait in week 1, and last week their set looked like a pole dancing joint/the window dressing of an Amsterdam brothel.

Tomorrow night’s performance is said to be ‘sassy’ hinting that their sexed up image is set to continue. Given they have also struggled with their vocals in every performance, they could even find themselves in danger of a bottom 3 appearance.

Louisa has the ‘Everybody’s Free’ cover that was in the Romeo & Juliet movie, a song that looks teed up for another ‘moment’ for her, and potentially her first pimp slot.

The 5th elimination looks a potential 3-horse race between Monica, Mason and Max. Of those 3, Max, again, has to be the tentative value call, available at 4-1 at time of writing.

Keep an eye on Comments below as on Saturday last week Mason was unearthed as a value bet at 7-4 to be in the bottom 3. A betting update will also appear there following Saturday night’s show.

Advised:

Max – 5th elimination – 4-1 – 1pt win – Boylesports

7 Comments

  1. hemsby

    I’m Ghana sue for copyright infringement 😉

    Great article as always Rob.

    Hopefully some B3 High St prices appear to get our teeth into.Will be looking to back 4th Impact despite an expected late slot in the running order.

    I think Max has a hidden vote given his style and pleasant demeanour,but agree the song choice looks a poor one,and he has to be in the mix.

    Mason the other obvious B3 contender for me,with Monica a lay if short enough.

    • Rob

      Ha, ha 🙂 Thanks for posting hems, and well done on spotting the potential of RnB so early on. Hopefully, they’re Ghana win us all some money if they make the final, though they have already proved a cracking trade.

      Yes, some b3 prices preferable as it is fiendishly difficult to call last place on the pv pre-show, though my view is a small investment on a value poke is always worthwhile.

  2. Jessica Hamby

    Forgive the pedantry but Lauren is from Kilburn in London, not Essex.

  3. Henry VIII

    But she’s still “Essex” 🙂 in the crucial sense.

    It does seem to be the same old same old even with viewers leaving. That is create rubbishy performances to get rid of people.

  4. Rob

    Max was advised at 4-1 for 5th elimination. He is now a best price of 11-8. Again, he has proved a good trade but to lock in a profit it looks wisest to cover on Mason who appears the other main contender for last place on the pv.

    First and second to perform, it felt like both of them were severely memory-holed, esp. with Louisa singing third.

    Advised:

    5th elimination – Mason – 2pt win – 13-8 – Ladbrokes, WH

    Not so easy to call the other b3-er. It feels like they happily have Anton’s vote under control and it wasn’t a great night for him. Monica sang pretty well but she could drop down. 4th Impact may have been helped by some sympathy votes.

    In terms of the Outright, Lauren really shone last night but the fact she was initially pencilled in for ‘Licence To Kill’ still leaves a slight question mark over her.

    Che was afforded the pimp slot but didn’t make the most of it. The view here is, he is being ramped atm to deflect votes away from Anton.

  5. Rob

    Played it safe, always the best policy, so a small profit on the week. Anton bottom 3 not remotely a surprise. His performance was poor on Sat and it was very much job done in deramping him the week before.

    Might suggest Star vote leak, again, was phone votes-only. The Che ramp could also be seen as a clever mechanism to deflect votes away from Anton.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.