Can Chris Escape Again?

Nov 13, 2012 by

Can Chris Escape Again?

We’re happy to provide an early X Factor analysis ahead of Saturday as things are becoming a lot easier to call now we are down to 6 contestants.

If you’ve been reading our X Factor posts each week you should be sitting pretty, as we’ve turned an excellent profit on the weekly markets series-long. Sunday proved another great night as we correctly called the bottom 2 combo of District 3 and Union J, and advised laying Rylan for bottom 2 at odds-on.

It really doesn’t matter if a few bets go astray along the way when you are successfully laying at odds-on and picking out elimination, bottom 2 and bottom 2 combo value bets that consistently land, as has been the case.

So 6 remain ahead of ‘Guilty Pleasures’ night. Our immediate reaction post Sunday night was, Rylan must be toast next week. The early value has already been snapped up, though there is a strong argument anything around Evens is still a good price.

We know he has been flirting with the bottom 2 series-long, landing in the bottom 2 twice already. It required a clever production and strong VT last Saturday, along with the split boyband vote, to see him safe.

With District 3 gone, it’s hard to see a scenario in which Rylan avoids the bottom 2. Union J should enjoy a bounce, and while we expect a big producer push to try and get them clear of the bottom 2 on Saturday, we have doubts regarding how big the vote transference will be now District 3 are out of the competition.

The intriguing question is, if it’s not Union J in the bottom 2 with Rylan, who will it be? The relentless negative press for Chris which is already underway again this week makes him look like a prime candidate, but it has to be factored in the Daily Star has informed us Chris has topped the vote every week at least up until last weekend.

It also told us Jahmene and Chris got around half of all votes the previous week. That means Chris probably received at least a 25 per cent share of the vote.

Did the weekend’s X Factor shows put a further dent in Chris’s vote? We’re not sure it did, and even if it did, from such a position of voting strength we are finding it hard to see Chris falling into the bottom 2 this weekend no matter what producers throw at him.

He and Barlow know what plays well to Chris’s audience and you would have thought ‘Guilty Pleasures’ will give ample scope for a wise song choice. There have also been clues from Chris’s treatment over the last couple of weeks the show is fully aware that by putting the boot in, they are encouraging even greater defiance among his fans, and allowing his fan base to potentially grow due to his status as this year’s anti-X Factor contestant.

The Star also informed us Ella has found herself, up until last weekend, only a couple of percentage points above the bottom 2. Ella had a great night last Saturday with Tulisa encouraging her fans to show their support.

We envisage Ella building on this on Saturday and possibly even a pimp slot to try and continue the momentum. She is the last girl standing, the show will want her in the final, and ideally they will want her in the final untarnished by a bottom 2 appearance.

So we find ourselves coming back to the standpoint that James looks the most vulnerable among the Big 3 of landing in the bottom 2 this weekend and we are more than happy to tuck into Boylesports best price of 7-2.

There are clear indications he isn’t polling well as TPTB have taken every opportunity over the last few weeks to use acts like Sunday’s Ed Sheeran to tell viewers they are behind James. His edgy style is simply not Saturday night X Factor audience-friendly.

A James/Rylan bottom 2 is quite conceivable and this combo looks well worth an investment at best available odds on Betfair – 7.6 at time of writing.

Again, we will be keeping a close eye on Jahmene’s edit. There was a hint last weekend they are reducing his ramp-athon, and we sense viewers may well be beginning to tire of his sob story VTs. He is long overdue a shocker, and the hope remains his ‘guilty pleasure’ could lend for something truly horrendous by way of a funk/soul fusion number that gives full licence to his screeching vocal acrobatics.

Wishful thinking, maybe, and whatever he does it likely won’t stop the judges being lavish in their praise, but we will be happy to pick off any double figure prices on Betfair on Jahmene landing in the bottom 2 regardless, as we sense his stock is starting to fall while Ella’s is on the rise.

We managed to get some 11-8 Rylan to be next eliminated. In backing Rylan for elimination you are essentially laying Chris to land in the bottom 2, as the only way we can see Rylan surviving is if TPTB can magic a bottom 2 appearance by Chris.

Given you will have to lay Chris at around the 5-2 mark for bottom 2, that equates to a return of 2-5 on your investment, so through that line of thinking, anything around 10-11 Rylan to be eliminated looks great value.

Are you as confident Chris will escape the bottom 2 again and Rylan will land bottom 2? This is the crux of this week’s markets so please do let us know your opinions below.
Rob Furber

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  1. Bruce

    Nice that you come to a clear conclusion with Chris at the prices Rob and don’t need a marathon posting of waffle leading to no decision.

    It just seems to easy, thats the nagging doubt. As an early Rylan for elimination backer and having taken the Rylan/James combo before your recommendation I can hardly disagree πŸ™‚

  2. Rob

    Yes, Bruce, you’re absolutely right – it’s only the ‘it’s surely to easy’ thought that creates resistance.

    If Rylan had been b2 with, say, District 3, on Sunday, it would have put a different complexion on things as he might have had a fair shot at a bounce.

    As it is, he heads into Saturday after avoiding the bottom 2, and you have to think his time is finally up.

  3. Boki

    It’s hard to disagree about Rylan.
    I remain sceptical about UJ bounce, they were pushed couple of times but nothing big came out qua performance, they are simply not capable of wow moment. Having said that, value is with James indeed unless they decide to go for real Chris kill (again depending how he managed last week).

  4. Chiggs

    Agree with all your recommended plays Rob. I also recommend buying Rylan/Ella, currently 8.2 on Betfair. Thinking about voting demographics, I’d expect Ella to be topping James but it’s not certain and considering Ella’s trading at the same btm2 odds as James, the combo is a decent value trade for a small sum.

    As far as the btm2 market is concerned I fully expect slightly more value to be offered post show as the acts minus Maloney and Rylan are pimped.

  5. Rob

    Could well be right, Chiggs, that the pimping of acts, minus Rylan & Chris could see even better value regarding James’s b2 & b2 combo prices.

    Well done on last week, btw.

    & Boki – share your doubts regarding the increase in pv UJ can achieve, though time & again we see a bottom 2 bounce proving enough to get clear of the bottom 2 the following week. But with less acts, it’s certainly tougher for them.

  6. Anonymous

    Can Chris escape again? Yes. Is it a chance I’m willing to take this week? No.

    Rylan is the obvious candidate to go and I’ve got a very large sum on this happening, so it only makes sense for me to put a saver on Chris to cover the unlikely (but possible with only 6 contestants) event that Chris will not make the top 4 in the vote this week. On twitter he seemed happy with his song choice, calling it “Boss”.

    I’m with Boki in that I don’t really see Union J bouncing this week. They’ve been bottom 2 twice, are severely damaged from the split boyband vote and imo peaked two weeks ago with their cover of Taylor Swift’s ‘Love Story’. For them to not be bottom 2, they’d have to surpass one of the big 4 who are all popular, appeal to their niches, and are yet to have visited the bottom 2. And it’s worth noting that their sympathy bounce only lasted one week. Therefore I’ve gone big on the Rylan/Union J bottom 2 combo. James bottom 2 and Rylan/James bottom 2 combo are savers only for me, and not profit-making.

    I don’t see Ella or JahmΓ©ne hitting the bottom 2 at all, so I’ve got nothing on either of them as of yet. Only if something is severely bad about their performance/treatment on Saturday would I consider backing them.

    Finally, I’ve got a great tip for you all: “Deadlock this week? No” which is 1.73 in a couple of firms. Think about it: if either of Rylan or Chris land in the bottom 2, you’d expect the judges to send them home 3 votes to 1, given their previous comments and who they’d likely to be up against.

  7. Tim B

    Sorry, the above comment was by me. Feel free to edit the name or just leave it as it is.

  8. Boki

    Hi Tim, I’m not sure in the Rylan vs UJ case, if Rylan is bottom – could they send it to deadlock in that case? I mean Tulisa could choose to save Rylan just to make it ‘more exciting’ ?

  9. Tim B

    Hi Boki,

    I guess that is a slight worry, that TPTB might force her to take it to deadlock. However Tulisa saved Rylan last time (and took some flack for it) so you’d think she wouldn’t want to do that a second time. Anyway, I think it’s worth a punt.

  10. Rob

    For those who’ve not seen yet, this is what they’ll be singing tonight:

    Rylan – Girls On Film vs When Will I Be Famous
    Union J – Call Me Maybe
    Chris – Total Eclipse of the Heart
    Jahmene – Don’t Leave Me This Way
    James – Cant Take My Eyes Off You
    Ella – The One That I Want

    Seriously perturbed by that Ella choice – sounds like it has the potential for proper car crash. That said, could also see Jahmene producing something abysmal but he at least has the buffer of the pimp slot & whatever he does he’ll get rave reviews no doubt.

  11. Boki

    Many thanks Rob, just came home and saw this, it looks like the answer to your article is a definite Yes since it suits Chris perfectly.
    UJ the only act with modern ultra hit, it seems tptb didn’t give up on them yet.

  12. Boki

    Can I take that back please πŸ™‚

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