Frank-Ella On The Bridle
It’s been a great start to X Factor 2012 for our readers. We advised an elimination punt on Carolynne in week 1 at 20-1 and followed that up by suggesting Melanie was worth backing in the 2nd elimination market again at 20-1.
We also recommended laying Rylan for bottom 2 last week, and laying Chris for bottom 2 at odds on after advising backing him pre-show at 5-1. In week 1 we also suggested laying District 3 for bottom 2 despite their ‘under a bus’ treatment.
Earlier, Melanie had been our idea of a dark horse who could reach the final, and our advised dutch of Melanie and Kye in the Overs category is all going on Kye now. Having clocked the vulnerability of Carolynne in week 1, despite what looked a good position in the running order in 12, it transpired Melanie was in a far from advantageous position last week in the slot formerly known as the pimp.
With Rylan getting the big production just prior to her, and X Factor haemorrhaging viewers throughout the night, the rather lukewarm praise she received for a very lukewarm performance saw her understandably finish last on the public vote.
What all the above illustrates is threefold: the importance of being able to spot value and in the process being willing to go against the market when you think there has been an over-reaction. The importance of covering your trading positions so there is little to no downside, and even an upside when it comes to backing a selection at 5-1 and then laying that same selection at odds on. And being able to read the edit and evolve your opinions according to what you see and hear during the Saturday night live show.
Looking ahead to this weekend, the drip, drip, drip of negative press for X Factor’s Shaky Baloney has continued unabated this week. It has become less of a drip and more of a burst pipe, The Sun adopting its traditional role of dodgy plumber-in-chief, aka Syco’s Minister Of Disinformation, feeding its readers stories that best suit the show’s agenda.
After raking up the fake nerves story again, we have also had ‘Chris blasted for being rude to show execs’. What might we get if he survives again? Chris seen drowning a kitten in a canal? Chris a known BNP supporter? Chris pleads Jimmy Saville’s innocence?
TPTB failed to get Chris into the bottom 2 last week, but they are clearly trying their damnedest to get him in the drop zone as soon as humanely possible. The Daily Star produced a story regarding Chris topping the public vote. While it has a decent track record for getting its voting leaks correct, this stinks to us as a fabrication of the fact Chris won the wildcard and possibly topped the vote in week 1.
It reminds us of similar tactics used to kill off Jedward and Wagner, though if memory serves it was The Sun – certainly in the instance of Jedward – that claimed they were at the top of the vote, when it transpired they were closer to the bottom. And shortly after this story appeared they were eliminated.
There has been some hints of a bottom 3 this Sunday, and 2 acts being eliminated. We wonder if X Factor will, in its traditionally shameless way, only announce this late on if it transpires Chris is 3rd from bottom on the public vote, so they can then get rid. If they can get him into the bottom 2, it looks more likely it will be the usual bottom 2 and if Chris is second from bottom on the pv, Chris being voted off following a sing-off.
We would not be discouraged in backing Chris for elimination purely on the grounds it will leave Gary with only one act. Given he will likely get the myriad Grim Reaper treatment once more, next elimination odds of 3-1 with bet365 strike us as reasonable value as this price should shorten considerably if it plays out as expected.
Assuming a District 3 bounce, having been in the bottom 2, Rylan again likely to be ramped to the max in a week that should play to his strengths – Club Classics – and this theme expected to suit MK1 down to the ground as well, Chris definitely looks vulnerable. After Kye’s inauspicious effort last week we expect him to receive a strong edit tomorrow night too.
In terms of bottom 2 value pre-show we would be looking more in the vicinity of Jade at 7-1 with William Hill and Lucy at 5-1 with Boylesports. Most think Jade was excellent last week but we have doubts over whether she is engaging with voters.
And while Lucy had a strong fan base coming into the lives, we have question marks over how long her support is going to hold up as she has done little on the live shows so far to impress a new audience.
We will also be keeping a close eye on James’s edit, and his performance – after his post-show meltdown last week – and Jahmene’s performance and position in the running order. We would not be surprised if a shock bottom 2 appearance happens sooner rather than later with Jahmene.
On a weekend when Frankel makes probably his last appearance on the racecourse – and we have our fingers crossed this is a winning send off – we must finish with a mention of X Factor’s very own ‘Frank-Ella’. She has been in cruise control so far and already looks in a different league to the rest of the field. We only saw the Adele comparisons as a massive plus, along with stories she is lined up to duet with Beyonce in the final.
What are your views on this week’s best plays pre-show? Join in the debate and we will be back on Sunday to try and come up with another winning strategy.
Rob Furber
Nice write up Rob and pretty much chimes with my sentiments for this week. If only I had time to write something up this week!
I notice Kye has been tweeting about going to hospital during the week, so there could be a sympathy-inducing VT due for him.
I’m slightly concerned by MK1 depending on whether they stick to the cheese or return to their urban routes. If it’s the latter, then this week is made for them.
I did go with Lucy for bottom two earlier this week and was heckled for doing so – no matter! I do think she’s reaching the end of her shelf life. The only way she garners support this week is with a mashup.
Chris has hit back at the claims, so it’ll be interesting to see how he’s portrayed in his VT. Do they go for the jugular, or do they paint him as hurt and offended – in which case, Kye would be the more vulnerable due to his ‘lack of click.’
Good luck Rob!
I’m really struggling this week with the elim and B2 market.
Even though I really like her and TPTB obviously like her too, I can see the case for Jade B2 at the price.
I’m also slightly tempted by UJ B2.
1D were polling poorly around this time and with 2 other groups that appeal to the teen demographic competing for the same vote, at around 20/1 they might be worth a speculative bet.
On the whole though I’ll be waiting til the show before I get involved.
Its hard to see a value angle into this weeks X factor markets. The current theories seem to suggest D3 = bounce, Maloney has residual supprt form wildcard = safe, Rylan has suitable theme and with the producers behind him = safe. So ruling these out makes others perhaps value.
Add to this my feeling that Jade, Lucy and Kye might not be polling well despite judges praise and will be B2 sooner rather than later then these seem value.
Trouble is I’m not particularly buying the above sufficiently to get involved, in fact I’d probably at the prices go with D3 and Maloney again.
So wait for the show for me also then decide
Yes, it definitely looks like more of a watching brief is required this week.
Reading that Sun story on Chris it is noticeable just how many posters in the Comments section are slating the guy. It’s also been suggested he’s not well loved in Liverpool so it’s all a bit of a mystery where his support is coming from & how deep it is.