End Nigh For Rylan
If you have been following the weekly advice given here regarding elimination and bottom 2 markets on XF, you will have cleaned up in this series. Which is just as well as suddenly things do not look so rosy in terms of our Outright market analysis.
The fly in the ointment, the pain in the backside, the recurring nightmare that causes us to wake in a cold sweat during the dead of night, much like those pesky Russian grannies did during ESC 2012 – Jahmene.
This guy’s sublime progress through the show has stunned us. Listening to him last night, launch into his trademark freestyle warbling, his face screwed up into a rictus of painful constipation, this particular viewer was filled with bitter resignation.
Knowing only too well the eulogising that was about to take place among the panel of judges, the four figure green so diligently built up on Ella over the course of the series was now frantically being hacked away at. It was like something out of ‘Psycho’, EntertainmentOdds HQ briefly transformed into that notorious shower scene, cast as a crazed Norman Bates of tv trading.
Jahmene stole Ella’s thunder, and as much as it pains us, nay stuns us, to write it, right now he looks the most likely winner of this year’s show. Reversing of positions is never an enjoyable experience and this one really cuts to the quick.
Ella suffers nit-picking while all the Boy Wonder has to do is apparently stand there screeching his demented notes, and the judges are in collective awe of him. Jahmene’s nervous giggle has, to us, transformed over the course of the series into the sinister cackle of XF’s most evil villain, and destroyer of Betfair dreams.
As for tonight, it all looks rather too easy again. Kye/District 3 bottom 2, right? We remain doubtful this will come to pass. Shocks are the lifeblood of X Factor and in contrarian fashion – which has served us so well this series – we will be seeking value in opposing this outcome.
The pelters District 3 got will only encourage their tweenie fans to multi-vote more. They also got an ad break to go berserk in… potentially. At around 1.5 for bottom 2 we were more than happy to lay at that price last night.
Kye is a lot of XF commentators favourite fall guy but we reckon he put in a very decent effort last night – certainly an appealing performance for a Saturday night ITV audience – and he could easily have done enough to escape the bottom 2 as well. Again, we will be happy to lay Kye for bottom 2 at anything odds on.
Level stakes lays of both Kye and District 3 at odds on will ensure a profit if one of them escapes the bottom 2 and it’s not inconceivable both escape.
If there was a performance on the night that was a definite disconnect with the audience it had to be James’s version of ‘Don’t Speak’. Too much rapping, he lost his way a couple of times… it was all rather alienating and a bit of a mess.
For this reason we got stuck into the 20-1 available on James during last night’s show to be bottom 2. He is still 10-1 with Boylesports to be in the bottom 2 and this still looks on the generous side.
We’re confident Chris has done more than enough to escape the bottom 2 again. In some ways he stole the show, assuming his fans were still tuned in to witness his tears.
Rylan had an entertaining set but we are less confident in calling him safe this week. Union J and Kye took away a lot of his gloss in the early part of the show, and come the end of the night we had forgotten about his performance altogether.
7-1 Rylan to be eliminated with Betfred (and 2-1 to be bottom 2) look far too big to resist given the likely tiny margins between the bottom 4 or 5 in the vote. Could we even see a shock bottom 2 appearance from either Ella or golden child Jahmene? That’s probably pushing it too far.
Rob Furber
No mention of the running order, Rob? District3 looked vulnerable the moment it was announced, and being sandwiched between Jahméne and Ella’s performances of the series won’t have been good for them. Similarly I think Kye was in a bite-sized sandwich of a (hopefully) bouncing Union J and a still-popular James Arthur. In keeping with the theme, a bottom 2 of Rylan and James would have the potential to turn me into the girl in The Excorcist. It’s a scary prospect but I’d have to agree that a bottom 2 appearance for James isn’t inconceivable. I’ve therefore had a cover on him for bottom 2 so thanks for making me consider that possibility. It is unlikely but you never know.
I’m finding it difficult to see past the obvious outcome this week. Rylan had a great draw, a strong vocal and an amusing VT. Kye had a dodgy song choice in my opinion. It was the least well known of all the tracks last night. He was also strongly red and blacked, had a boring VT and the bit with his brother in the café reminded me of Sophie Habibis in the empty pub. The clever use of girls in District3’s VT was an attempt to decrease their vote. I just worry that the crucifying from the judges won’t inspire a sympathy vote. Regarding Christopher, his performance felt like a traditional pimp slot one to me. Gold lighting signifies winner and his vocal was totally on the money. It’s worth pointing out that Christopher’s closing slot was the earliest one of the series, and to me the show doesn’t feel too long anymore. A lay of Chris for bottom 2 is one of my most confident plays this week.
A bottom 2 of Kye and District3, with Kye being saved by the judges. Fingers crossed!
I know the feeling Rob about having to savage an Ella green. I bit the bullet and became a Jarmene backer after last week’s (surprising to me) judges adulation – I thought he has to make the final at least. I’m still unmoved by his musical style. But he’s a very likeable chap and I’ve got used to his nervous snickering.
Ella needs more suitable arrangements to show off her voice (still the best in the series for me) and she’s not getting the right advice. I can’t see her ever getting it from Tulisa, who’s a very different singer.
Well done on the 20 James B2. James B2 would surprise me but it’s possible and 20 is definite value. It would be funny if it was a James Rylan B2 and they saved Rylan. After all the praise they’ve given James. But XF does prefer controversy over credibility. No no no it couldn’t happen. Not quite.
Is a Chris Maloney win possible?
Tim I thought Kye’s song choice suitable and his VT with the supporting brother one of the best. A loving family member is always helpful in creating attachment with the audience.
Yep, they are definitely trying to get District 3, Tim, but this can backfire, especially when it comes to a boyband with an incentivised fanbase.
It certainly did feel like the most interesting part of the show came during the last 4 performances, which makes Rylan that bit more vulnerable.
It needs to be an exercise in value too so a lay of two odds-on shots seems a wise move in a show which breeds on shocks, & has had surprise bottom 2s every week so far.
Hi Rob,
I think we’re in complete agreement.
I had to settle for 16 and 15 on betfair James B2, as the HS are no good for me, bar Paddies and Baldies sometimes.
He put in very XF unfriendly performance and if you take out the law unto himself, Chris, then he’s B2 on my twitter figures.
Only Rylan is below him.
I thought he did OK, but eventually people become bored of the novelty acts and that certainly appears to have happened with Rylan this week.
Just taken some 7/1 and I’m backing him for B2 too.
Kye has had a massive leap in support on my figures and I have him well safe.
The boybands are harder to call as twitter always overstates their support. They’re both up on last weeks figures though.
UJ should be well safe and I agree that the slating D3 recieved will have their fans multi voting like mad to save them.
As for the outright, I brought Jahmene onside a couple of weeks back. Like you I can’t stand him, but TPTB clearly do.
My theory is they’re pushing him so hard to try and dampen down the vote for Chris.
It’s not out of the question that Chris could do a Leanne from the voice. He should be 3rd favourite in my book.
Ofc unlike the Voice TPTB will throw everything they can at Chris to stop him, but with an increasingly cynical public the cr@p they throw at him could actually gain him more votes than he loses.
It has to be said the guy is playing an absolute blinder.
I’d love to see him win.
Top post Mr Leaves. Glad your angle of attack for this evening is similar. Maybe due a losing week but hoping run continues.
Agree regarding Chris too. Sense their deramping tactics, if they are deramping, are actually working against them.
Maybe then can afford for entertainer Rylan to go soon & allow the Chris story to become the big story of this series. Always sense they can exert overall control & last night’s pimp slot & VTs were possibly intended to ensure his run continues.
Another decent night for our readers 🙂
Rylan bottom 2 at 2-1, a cracking lay of District 3 for bottom 2, available around the 1.5 mark on Betfair, & Chris called safe again as predicted.
Having taken the 7-1 Rylan to be eliminated, perfect window to then lay off at odds on initially prior to sing off. Felt it had deadlock written all over it & Kye going.
Only blow to ‘Top Overs’ trading, though previously advised a back of Chris to win this category to at least partially cover any Kye/Melanie liability.
Great stuff again Rob 🙂
I missed out on the big payout this week with James escaping the B2.
A winning week though with some nice bets on Rylan B2 and Kye to go in the sing-off. How was he odds against?
I laid off all my Rylan for elim green and a little more.
Slightly kicking myself for not laying D3. Their fans are so much more passionate than the UJ fans on twitter.
I see 1D are backing them too, which must give them an extra boost.
As for Kye. I was surprised he was B2. I’m not sure why twitter was so far out on him. His best response on there ever.
I guess apathy amongst voters was part of the reason. 0% thought he was in danger of going on the TVpolls
Another fabulous win for me, rocketing my series profit into four figures. Was on Kye to go and bottom 2 all week. Also won on the bottom 2 combo. Had some winning lays on Maloney bottom 2, Union J bottom 2 and I bet some more on Kye to go during the sing off. That was a great shout for Rylan elimination, Rob.
The problem with pre-show betting this week is that the elimination odds for all the likely bottom 2 candidates are already terrible, as if the show has already taken place and some of the acts have been stitched up.
BetVictor have already paid me out on Maloney top Over. I wasn’t sure if they would – twists are always possible but I’m glad that they have. I suspect other firms will have done so too.
Cheers Rob, I was very glad to see the consensus here of D3 possible escape and Rylan bot2 since those two were in my book, well done.
Great to see everyone had a winning night 🙂
Some great trades there, Tim. Certainly these weekly elim & bottom 2 markets during XF continue to prove extremely lucrative.
Next week will be fascinating. They appear to have tried to kill off District 3 twice now, so they are surely due better treatment but ironically this may make them more vulnerable.
After Rylan’s bottom 2 appearance he certainly has a chance to bounce to safety. And as for Chris – whatever they throw at him his vote appears to remain strong. And as the last Over, & to continue the saga, he might get reasonable treatment.
A shame about the Melanie/Kye tip not working out…
Yes, it has been a fiendishly difficult series in terms of pre-lives, long-term market bets. The Kye/Melanie dutch looked a lock in Overs betting. Few could have foreseen Chris’s remarkable run.
James looks to be losing his battle with Jahmene, & Union J appear to have producer favour over D3. But even these 2 are far from clear cut, which shows there has been very little angle of attack in the assorted XF markets this year.
Thankfully, the weekly markets have been a boon for us 🙂