End Of Kingsland’s Road?
It’s disco week on X Factor which begs the question: how come Tamera is singing ‘Wishing On A Star’. Gary is almost guaranteed to question Nicole on the song choice. Beyonce has done a version of this song too so more fuel for him to moan, perhaps. Will his diversionary tactics take the gloss off her performance like last week?
Abi will Abi-fy ‘I Will Survive’ which presumably means it will be slowed down and turned into the antithesis of a disco tune. Of course, this tune is something of an anthem for defiant scorned women who have endured tough times with the men in their life, so Abi at least has a potentially big captive audience with the Gloria Gaynor classic. It will likely end up something like this:
You can’t help but wonder if Sam B is about to encounter her first major derailment with ‘No More Tears’. It could easily come across as a middle-aged woman grabbing the mic at a karaoke evening. It’ll be interesting to see the course the judges steer post-performance with this and Nick’s song ‘Rock With You’. Nick could also be teed up for his first tough critique.
You couldn’t be full of confidence Hannah will be able to deliver ‘Somebody Ellse’s Guy’ but this hasn’t stopped the judges raving about her in previous weeks and you have to presume a late slot and the mother of all ramps for her tomorrow evening after her bottom 2 appearance last week.
Luke’s spin on ‘Play That Funky Music’ will be interesting to hear. It could probably go either way, but the way things have gone for Luke up to now, you sense the judges will more likely talk him up, saying he made it his own.
Sam C was targeted last week and they may have him in their sights again this week with ‘Re-Light My Fire’. But with the tweenies screaming for him from their mosh pit, you would still give him a fighting chance of avoiding the bottom 2 and certainly not being bottom of the flash vote on Saturday.
Sam C and Kingsland Road are vying for the same sort of vote and our gut says Sam C is winning this battle regardless of their song choices, comparative performances and what the judges have to say. Kingsland Road could be on for an earlier slot this week and Sam C a later one so our value call is to back Kingsland Road for elimination at 100-30 with Bwin and to be bottom of the flash vote, also 100-30 with Bwin. Our money would be on ‘Blame It On The Boogie’ coming across as a dated cheese-fest.
Rough Copy also look a big price to be bottom of the flash vote at 9-1 as our instinct tells us they must have been loitering very close to bottom 2 last week. And we give both Abi and Sam C decent chances of avoiding the sing-off.
It will be good news for Abi if the judges stick the boot in to her. And if they don’t and they say what a great job she did, this will likely coalesce her fans anyway. We will happily lay Abi for bottom 2 at anything around the Evens mark on Betfair, and at the prices we would rather back Rough Copy to be in the bottom 2 at 7-2 with Ladbrokes. Rough Copy’s vocal harmonising is very suspect and they could well be exposed attempting the chorus of ‘September’.
The full song list:
Abi Alton – I Will Survive
Hannah Barrett – Somebody Else’s Guy
Kingsland Road – Blame It On The Boogie
Luke Friend – Play That Funky Music
Nicholas McDonald – Rock With You
Rough Copy – September
Sam Bailey – No More Tears (Enough Is Enough)
Sam Callahan – Relight My Fire
Tamera Foster – Wishing On A Star
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It’s another head-scratcher Rob and you’ve pretty much contradicted my early thoughts…
I don’t believe TPTB want Abi on the tour. After this week, we’ll be down to the last eight, so it makes sense for them to cut away the last piece of deadwood. I do worry about her northern support, so I’ll be listening for lots of uninspiring nice comments.
As for Sam, I’m predicting another bonfire on stage, and given that they went for him last week shows TPTB are fussed about his progression in the contest.
I can see your argument for Kingsland. They won’t be delighting their demographic with Blame it on the Boogie, but any negative comments from the judges will surely send their fan-base into a frenzy? Even last Sunday afternoon they were tending on Twitter.
I think it’s another ‘in-play’ weekend.
As I’ve just said on Twitter, I guess the Kingsland song lends itself to the Colour Vomit kill theory.
Tough one indeed, it can go either way with Abi so her bottom two odds don’t appeal me much (unless maybe to lay b2 and back elimination). Another thing that makes KR vulnerable is the fact they are coming off a bounce – one need to be special to bounce more than one week and they are everything but that. With the fact that SamC is due to a late slot I think KR bottom 2 is the safest bet.
Forgot to mention in article, 15 minute crossover with Strictly again so those opening couple of slots could be telling.
I’m not keen on Twitter as a barometer, gav. Last week Twitter was raving about Hannah according to Tim B.
I think it is a fair assumption Sam C has the most rabid multi-voting tweenie fans. He survived b2 last week from trap 2 with a U2 song unknown to the masses, & despite judges best efforts to deflate his vote sandwiched between RC & Hannah, so at the odds I prefer his survival chances again this week.
Abi has built herself a strong fan base too partly on sympathy, partly due to her niche style, partly by being the token ‘northern’ act & she looks to have an even stronger chance of avoiding b2.
Twitter was extremely useful last week, Rob and I recommend you monitor it on Sunday when people are voting again. I was monitoring traffic for all acts and Hannah was the least talked about, which is why Greg and I took a punt on her being bottom 2.
Accept your points on the other acts though.
I think you’re both right, Twitter sentiment is always useful but acts trending is unreliable when it comes to boybands in particular. Both boybands trended loads last year, including all the weeks they were bottom 2 respectively. So I don’t read anything into KR trending.
I also think Abi has a fragility about her, which combined with her stripped back style, naturally endears her to viewers.
If she gets both barrels from the judges I will be laying her even more for bottom 2.
Could not agree more with this.
You are right of course IF judges continue to hammer her but we have no idea what are they going to do.
I’m confused about the twitter, according to Tim Hannah was raving and Gav says the opposite (which btw I also read on bf forum that she was last), are you guys looking at the same data (this is question for Tim actually)?
When I analyse twitter, I’m looking for mentions and leave twitter windows running for each candidate and take readings every 15 mins or so. Hannah was lowest. I can’t account for what Tim was looking at, but by my measurements, barely anyone was talking about her.
Mine wasn’t a scientific study, just a brief look on twitter and Facebook. I wasn’t collecting data or anything.
Guys, thanks for the explanation, so we can conclude it’s Tim’s fault that the rest of us didn’t poke on Hannah b2 🙂
Hi Gav,
I’m really interested in your twitter methodology. What do you exactly mean by “leave twitter windows running for each candidate”? Are you using a particular website for tracking?
I’m trying to do a search for the past week but for example if I search for mentions of Hannah Barrett I’m missing all the tweets like “I loved Hannah tonight”. Searching only for Hannah gives lot of rubbish of course…
Hi Rob I agree with pretty much all you have said! I think Abi will murder the song and then have Gary digging into her a little harder than last week and thus spiking her vote.
The one thing I have thought about is the role of Luke. I dont think he is a winner or a crowd puller. He is howvere a consistent performer. I have liked him from the start but the lack of screen time will prevent him from winning. He has been carried through the early shows with good vocals good productions and more importantly late slots. What happens to him when he gets the strictly cross over slot and gets forgotten about? If he is in trap 2 I think it may be the end for him.
They have certainly got behind Luke in the live shows, Jay. I wonder if the bigging up of Luke helps reduce Nick’s vote. They haven’t appeared keen to allow Nick any sort of momentum up to now.
Absolutely right, Luke is getting the slot you would expect to see nick in. I guess they did similar with Arthur and jahmene in the early stages last year. I think if Luke gets another good slot then they really are ramping him up. I just wonder wether he sinks or swims if and when they decide to let him fend for himself.
Could Sam Callahan’s teenie voter’s be out at bonfire’s ?
It may leave him falling short.
That’s a fair observation Andy. The youth vote will drop a tad and may leave those acts reliant on it short of votes. It’s probably worth looking back at previous series to see how votes were influenced.
Just checked some of the stats for Bonfire Night voting:
In 2012, District 3 and Union J’s vote remained consistent. James Arthur’s vote shrunk, but that’s the week he rapped and got red and blacked.
For Bonfire night in 2011, Frankie Cocozza’s vote strengthened. It was actually older acts Johnny Robinson and Kitty that made up the bottom 2.
2010 saw no influence whatsoever.
I’m calling this busted.
Very well revised Gavster, Kingsland road bottom 2 looking the safest call at the moment.