Even Rougher Than Expected

Nov 23, 2013 by

Even Rougher Than Expected

Breaking news: Olly Murs backs Rough Copy. It will be interesting to hear if they receive any further endorsements tonight. They may well need them. Nick on first. Perhaps he hauled in such a strong vote the week before, they already got scared, banishing him to slot 1.

Far and away Nick’s worst effort. Distinct ‘tuning issues’ all along the way. It was surprising to hear the judges saying he did a great job. They missed an open goal if they wanted to properly deramp him this evening.

Hannah up second immediately set alarm bells ringing for her but she did a decent job. There was still very little nuance about this performance. Soul, yes. Subtlety, no. This is arguably the worst slot, which saw Luke drop into the bottom 2 last week, and Kingsland Road two weeks prior to that. Hannah might have done enough to avoid the bottom 2 on the back of that but the judges managed to keep their praise on a low simmer. There was no imploring for viewers to vote for her.

Luke in trap 3 wasn’t quite as favourable as you might imagine they would give him if they were keen to bounce him out of the bottom 2. It was a good acoustic version of the One Direction hit. His voice suited the song well and the judges properly gave him their approval after this. Louis hopes One Direction fans will vote for him. This looks enough to keep him clear of the bottom 2. This felt more vote-generating than Hannah before him.

You read it here first and it all came true… A terrible arrangement for Rough Copy and this was even worse than speculated here that it would be on Friday. Some desperately out of tune moments. Some distracting dancers. This looks like a bottom 2 banker before the judges speak… Sharon halted the accolades. Some distracting chat too, not much of a big up from Barlow. Adding urban flavour actually made them less voter-friendly tonight.

Tamera got the penultimate slot for the third week running. The difference between this and the previous 2 weeks was they managed to find a suitable song for her at last, but sadly for Tamera, she wasn’t reading from the script of the upcoming ‘wow performance’ teed up for her, forgetting the words again.

When she was singing the song, it sounded great. Somehow she got through to the end and you wonder if this will have encouraged a decent sympathy vote for her. She could have done with full waterworks to get a bigger vote. Ironically, by holding herself together, she put herself in the mix for bottom 2.

Sam B being given the pimp slot was something of a surprise as there had been slight hints previously that TPTB might be looking to halt her procession, but this would surely have allowed her to pull away again at the top of the voting chart.

It looks between Hannah, Rough Copy and Tamera for bottom 2. Gun held to head – Rough Copy vs Hannah, because there is an incentive for viewers to feel sorry for Tamera and vote for her. A Tamera Rough Copy bottom 2 could be a real head-scratcher for producers. In such a scenario they may well cut their losses and boot Tamera off the show, but Rough Copy look too big to miss at 20-1 to be eliminated with Coral.

In other news, if we are to believe this early draft release from the ITV press centre, we will have a sing-off at the last 4 stage, but this is not exactly official confirmation, found here.


  1. Ben

    I see no reason for Rough Copy to actually get eliminated this week, even if a bottom two may be likely. It’s Tamera or Hannah to go for sure. A shame, really.

  2. Kevin

    I cant see Rough Copy going this week. They would be saved over anyone in my opinion.

  3. Rob

    They won’t be trading at 20-1 to be eliminated if they are in the bottom 2 against Tamera & my view is they are bankers to be in the bottom 2, & could easily be bottom of the pv. So it looks a value price with a view to potentially laying much lower on BF tomorrow night.

    • Kevin

      Yep back to lay policy on it makes perfect sense alright. I didn’t think of that aspect of it. I mostly just bet as opposed to lay but it does make a lot sense.

      Keep up the great work, long time fan of your inspired advice.

      • Rob

        Thanks Kevin. Please keep reading, & posting.

        • Kevin

          Just to brag backed Tamera at 14/1 for elimination during ad break before she came on with Bwin. 7/1 was next highest at the time so a bit of a rick by them. Decent chance. Can cover stake easily too.

  4. Jay

    I’m thinking Tamera has to go tomorrow. The VT the staging the lighting the fireworks were all geared up for her wow moment and then she fluffed her lines. They used the sympathy route last week, I don’t see it being forgiven twice. I also think She def goes in a sing off vs rough copy and vs Hannah would be a tough call.

  5. Rob

    We have had next to no controversy in this series, the show playing a straight bat up to now when it comes to sing-off decisions.

    Obviously this was the week of the shock b2 last year. If it’s Hannah vs Tamera, Nicole will abstain so we will have a 2-1 decision & the way they spoke last night you would have to think Gary and Louis would save Hannah. Is that exciting, interesting, controversial? No.

    Rough Copy vs Hannah… Hannah’s 3rd b2 appearance, you would have to assume RC would be saved. No controversy here.

    If it’s Rough Copy vs Tamera, there is a clear opportunity here for Sharon to save Tamera & tee it up for deadlock. My money would be on RC having a lower pv than Tamera and this would certainly be quite the shock if Tamera survived this way at RC’s expense.

    There is certainly a narrative they can choose to run with regarding Tamera, & potentially plenty of jeopardy and column inches heading into next week if she is still on the show.

    • Boki

      So you think they would sacrifice RC? Up to this point I had an impression they really would like them in the final.

      • Rob

        It was clearly set up for Hannah vs RC bottom 2 last night, Boki. Of that I am sure. And it looked like 4th place for RC would leave the producers happy. But Tamera forgetting her words has possibly changed things.

        It all depends on whether Tamera is bottom 2 tonight, but we can tell from her treatment in the lead up to her singing ‘Impossible’ that last night was supposed to be her ‘out the ballpark’ performance, to get her back on track for a final appearance.

        Now, of course, their thinking may have changed. But I am very happy with my analysis pre-show as it was spot on, & Tamera would have been comfortably safe if she had not made a mess of things.

  6. Kevin

    I would be very interested in Gavster’s thinking today. He is spot on most Sundays

    • Thanks for the support Kevin, but last week was awful. Hannah escaping threw a spanner in what had previously been a very reliable and profitable system.

      I’d have to concur with Rob here: the alarm bells should be ringing for Rough Copy this week and their twitter traffic is slightly troubling, which may see them perform again in the sing-off tonight.

      Hannah’s traffic was the worst last week, but she survived. One could say she was hampered by the 10th Anniversary montage, but it seems bullets were sprayed at everyone last night, with Sam and Luke being the only acts unscathed. Hannah’s traffic is the worst again today, but it’s higher that last week. Given her performance last night, I reckon she could be safe.

      Tamera’s cock-up has caused a major issue for TPTB and punters. I said last week on Sofabet that it’s best to be talked about, than not at all. That mantra proved correct last week, but this week I imagine people will be less forgiving. Tamera’s traffic has been sky-high all day and I’m not buying into the anti-Niall sentiment mentioned on Sofabet (I haven’t seen overwhelming evidence of it on Twitter). Generally, the mood of Tamera’s traffic is ambivalent to moderately supportive.

      You’d have to think that Nick is safe with all of Scotland voting for him. I doubt many English would have picked up the phone for him after that VT ode to all things north of the border.

      A Tamera vs Rough Copy bottom two would be my best result, but Hannah could easily end up wrecking that.

      Rough Copy are best value IMO.

      • Kevin

        Thanks a million, will cover Hannah & Rough Copy. One bad week for your approach is no disaster. There are no 100% systems.

      • zoomraker

        best value for b2 or best value to go?

        • Both, although I’d be tempted to just take the combos now. Not that much value about, so wouldn’t be risking massive amounts.

          Hannah&RC – 4.0
          Tamera&RC – 4.0

          Sometimes higher at betfair

          • steve

            Hi Gav you would be better just backing Rough Copy bottom 2 at 11/8 than the 2 combinations at a combined even money, you then have the albeit unlikely events covered at no cost.

  7. Rob

    A surprising Tamera stay of execution tonight would offer the show the oxygen of publicity that used to be its raison d’etre. But maybe we have seen the show evolve in this series to be much less controversy-driven.

  8. Frank

    Well done Rob – another cracking week for you.

    Next week looks like Tamera / Luke Bottom 2 with Tamera leaving the competition. (I’m hoping so anyway, as I piled on Nicole being first mentor out!)

    • Rob

      Thanks Frank. Hope you got stuck into the 9-2 Hannah/RC b2 combo as advised, & the 7-4 RC to be bottom 2. I’ve rarely felt more certain about a bottom 2-er as in the case of RC this week.

      The fact they didn’t send it to deadlock suggests they were bottom of the pv to me, which is what I sensed watching the show on Saturday.

  9. Rob

    An interesting D.Star Tweet which supports what I wrote in my article, suggesting Nick won the public vote from the pimp slot last week:


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