Go & Get The Guitar

Nov 15, 2013 by

Go & Get The Guitar

Two main questions arise heading into Saturday night’s show and trying to work out how it is most likely to pan out in terms of bottom 2 and elimination.

Will Hannah be able to achieve what is commonly referred to in tv betting circles as the ‘double bounce’ and is Sam C’s tweenie army substantial enough to enable him to avoid the bottom 2 once more?

It could make for some compelling tv this weekend as it looks like Sam C may have gone rogue. ‘I’d rather fail as my own man with my pride than succeed as somebody else’s puppet! x’ he Tweeted earlier this week.

And rumour has it, Sam C has requested, in the words of David Brent, ‘Go and get the guitar’. He has ‘Faith’ which seems a suitable song for him. He can give it some of the trademark George Michael gyrating hips, maybe wear a leather jacket and a pair of cool shades while throwing in some air guitar. His demo should lap it up.

Sam C this week is a little bit similar to the quandary of Abi last week. He may well be in the producer’s sights for a take down but they might not achieve a successful hit because his core support could be higher than expected. And Sam C may have a better chance of dodging a bullet for another week because it is apparent he is using social media wisely and has a highly motivated army of tweenies out there getting ready to multi-vote for him come what may.

If Sam C does have such a high level of support TPTB doubt they can drag him into the bottom 2, this would sound the death knell for Hannah. Two bottom 2s already for her, and a third awaits unless they offer her the mother of all ramps. ‘Satisfaction’ hardly suggests this is going to be the case and may well be a sign producers have given up on her. With Hannah gone, this would also potentially be a bit of a boost for Tamera as the last remaining girl.

You can imagine Sam B Shirley Bassey-fying ‘Something’. She should coast through this, her public vote unscathed unless the judges have words lined up like ‘old fashioned’ and ‘dated’ in their critique. Nick’s song choice is altogether more modern and looks his best to date this series. Adele’s ‘Someone like You’ should be well executed and memorable enough on the night.

With Sam B likely to be smashing the public vote at the moment and Nicholas a solid second, the 3 other acts that come into play as possible bottom 2-ers this week have to be Luke, Rough Copy and Tamera.

Luke had a poor week last week having been ramped every week prior to that. ‘Your Song’ is rather low key and could be lost and forgotten on the night if he lands an early slot. Obviously the subtle charm of Ellie Goulding’s recent cover version does give Luke the window to offer up something similarly poignant, with the judges returning to ramp mode with him. ‘Back on form’, ‘You made it your own’, ‘versatile performer’ yadda, yadda.

The show has also gone down a path of ramping Rough Copy to the rooftops every week. They want them in the final 4 but you still wonder if their vote isn’t particularly strong or robust, and as soon as the ramping eases off, you get the impression they will drop into the bottom 2. Viva La Vida, while modern enough, is going to be very difficult for them to deliver well given their vocal shortcomings.

If you recall, One Direction sang this in week 1 of the lives back in 2010. Just watching that back shows you how they struggled to cope with it:

They did still manage to land over 10% of the public vote that week, and 4th place overall, courtesy of some barefaced lying from the judges telling viewers how great it was. Of course, the judges may well choose the same path of deceit with Rough Copy – they have, after all, followed this path every week so far – but it could just be that the viewers don’t play ball, and we might even hear ‘a few tuning issues’ among the judges’ post-song comments.

Tamera has ‘Diamonds Are Forever’ which is another old-fashioned choice for her. ‘Wishing On A Star’, ‘Cry Me A River’ and now this. So much for trying to build on Tamera’s USP as a modern, exciting R&B star. They are giving her the song choices of a washed up hotel lobby crooner. It could create enough dramatic gravitas to connect with viewers but taken at face value this song doesn’t appear to make Tamera look guaranteed of avoiding the bottom 2 either.

Sam C has served us very well laying him for bottom 2 each week, and on balance we fancy his chances of escaping the bottom 2 again. Hannah, at 7-4 for elimination, certainly makes more appeal than Sam C at 7-4 for elimination.

The value plays become harder to find the further into the competition we move. It could be worth taking aim at the bottom 2 combo market this week and perming Hannah/Luke at 9-2, Hannah/Rough Copy at 10-1 with Skybet, and Hannah/Tamera at 7-1.

The plan here will not be to lay Sam C for bottom 2 unless the live show screams to us he is safe. Here are this week’s song choices:

Sam Bailey – Something
Nicholas McDonald – Someone Like You
Sam Callahan – Faith
Tamera Foster – Diamonds Are Forever
Hannah Barrett – Satisfaction
Rough Copy – Viva La Vida
Luke Friend – Your Song

5 Comments

  1. Boki

    Agree with your analysis Rob, just posted on another place what I felt about Tamera’s choice, great danger of b2. I also took last 6 available for Nic to win.

    • Rob

      The last 3 song selections for Tamera have been abysmal imho, Boki. Syco seems to have forgotten how to sell young solo female acts to its audience.

      It’s not been about non-likeability with Tamera on the live shows; more about cliched, unimaginative, dated song choices.

      • eurovicious

        With Tamera’s vote being precarious, I think they keep giving her ballads out of fear – Misha B did markedly better in the vote the weeks she performed ballads and standards than the weeks she performed in a more urban style or added a rap. Ain’t Nobody in week 1 was just right for Tamera, IMO, but ever since, they’ve played it extremely safe with her – I reckon they’re afraid her vote would plummet like Misha’s did if they gave her something urban. The best way round this quandry, IMO, would be to give her something like We Found Love – it’s mainstream, contemporary and v popular without being urban or threatening, and it’d position her in the right way and make her a more exciting proposition.

        • Rob

          There are certainly many more appropriate, exciting, interesting, modern song choices they could give Tamera, ev, without alienating the audience. There’s a lot of accessible R&B stuff out there. And more powerful, less cliched ballads.

          ‘Impossible’ would be one but for it being covered so successfully already by James. ‘We Found Love’ is certainly another. Even the much covered ‘Jar Of Hearts’ would sound refreshing compared to the last 3 songs she has been given.

          If she makes the final they should get her to duet with Jay-Z, doing the Alicia Keys part of ‘Empire State Of Mind’. Or Justin Trousersnake singing ‘What Goes Around’. That’s surely more her sort of sound.

  2. Rob

    Forgot to flag up straight forecast market over at Ladbrokes. My advice would be to dutch Sam B/Nick, now 6-1, & Nick/Sam B now 8-1.

    Over at bwin they are offering finishing position betting. Tamera looks the value here at 11-2 to finish 3rd.

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