A Gold-Plated Lay?
Ben opens proceedings and he is doing a better job with this than expected. And the script is, Ben will sell records, he is the real deal according to Cowell. A big Ben ramp from the coffin slot.
Lola started well but it has been all downhill since. This is very poor, seriously out of tune in places, shouting… but Louis tells us it was crazily good, and all the Geordies are going to vote for her. By a mile your best performance, Simon informs. This is like an X Factor out of body experience when what you have just heard is so far removed from what the judges are telling you.
Fleur is the best performer in the competition, says Louis. Mel B says her vocals were compromised. Her vocals were compromised. Now we have had 3 very positive critiques by the judges. Teeing up for a negative review for Jack…?
It is just him up there and he looks very alone. It is raining blood. A black woman just bit his neck and now he is bleeding. A small room performer, Louis tells him. Here we go, digging his grave here. ‘I don’t think this is you… You’ve compromised yourself along the way,’ says Cowell. It is a Halloween theme ffs. He has no say in the matter.
Good work from Jack here, intimating to Dermot he had little say in things and Mel B wants the north to vote for him, so it looks like he has a sporting chance of avoiding bottom spot.
Tears For Fears must have loved Gary Jules version of this… and if they are tuned in tonight, they will surely be loathing this. Jay put his spin on it, says Louis, who loved it. Mel B liked it a lot. Simon’s telling us he is a legitimate artist. Jay is dressed like The Incedible Burt Wonderstone. As a conjuring trick, it would be great if he would just disappear.
Andrea is being asked to dance during this, he is out of his comfort zone… He isn’t dancing and he looks like a victim in Goldfinger. This suggests Cowell really doesn’t want this guy winning. If it was Stevi up there, it might have worked. Louis loved the staging. It’s like the alien factor, says Cowell. It was one of the craziest things he has seen on the show. ‘Nobody else could stand up and sing like that,’ says Mel B. ‘There’s a reason,’ replies Cowell, getting the final say.
This is not the right song choice for Lauren. That said, she can sing it much better than Katy Perry ever could live. Lauren killed it, says Louis. Yes, she did but not in a good way. You owned it, says Mel B. ‘You turned from someone quite ordinary last week to a pop star this week,’ says Cowell. You just knew this was the narrative with Lauren this week, but that didn’t work out as well as they would have hoped.
Paul’s been complaining, Mel B tells us, and she is his mentor. But this performance by Paul is much better than it was possibly teed up to be. Has he gone off-script by doing a good job? No, Louis tells us he is also a rock singer and he is versatile. Cowell puts a downer on things by telling him to stop complaining and to lighten up.
OTY apologising to viewers in their VT. Cheryl tells us OTY could be in trouble… The blonde has let them down with her solo, but the guys are holding it together well. It was fun, Mel B tells us. Cheryl says the same. Cowell congratulates them, no sulking by them, another clear dig at Paul… Please vote, says Louis. Right, they want them to bounce for sure.
Stereo Kicks have turned a corner, Louis informs during their VT. Lots of teenage girls saying they love them. ‘Oh my God, we’re back again’. Sadly, the lyrics to the song are true. They are back again, and oh my god this is as flat as a pancake in places. Now it sounds like they are miming to a heavy backing track. ‘Last week it worked for the first time. Now I believe in you as a group.’ says Cowell. Louis pleading for votes. ‘We want to win this competition,’ says one of the band. Might work in the USA; not sure it’s such a wise thing to say to a UK audience.
Stevi is crying after his Phantom Of The Opera skit. Desperate attempt to drum up enough votes for him to escape, again, which may well work. Jack is definitely up against it tonight. He’s the one in the sniper’s sights. Over 2 million votes…
Syco playing with us leaving Andrea up there with Lola and Jack… yes, Jack gone. Another perfect hit. Jack incredibly dignified in his exit speech when it looked for a moment like he was going to tell viewers how much he had been stitched up.
The favs keep landing in this series. Keep an eye on Comments tomorrow for betting recommendations.
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So far, it has been an XF series for elimination favourite backers. When the field is so big in the early weeks, it has previously paid handsome dividends to take on short-priced elimination and bottom 2 favourites.
Unlike previous years, this year, with the free app, things have felt a little different, with Syco seemingly able to exert greater control.
Jack was dispatched in clinical fashion last night but tonight looks much less clear cut. Lola has been heavily supported all day, matched as low as Evens to be eliminated and 1.46 to be in the bottom 2 at time of writing.
Unless the market is now rife with insiders, those prices are far too short on all known evidence.
She was left in the last 3 last night which has possibly motivated some to pile in on her. Strange as Dermot stated, ‘This is not the bottom 3′ and it obviously wasn’t.
This often helps an act generate more votes as despite Dermot’s words, the average viewer can miss these nuances.
Lola’s support should be relatively strong at this stage. The north-east is partisan and she has had a strong narrative in this series, with viewers encouraged to invest in her.
Stereo Kicks’ vote could fall off a cliff again, OTY’s bounce might not be big enough to push them clear of the bottom 3. But I think these 2 acts, along with Lola, are more likely safe.
Paul is similar to Lola in the sense you get the impression viewers have connected with him, like him, and are keen to support him. Also from the north-east, he probably has a strong and loyal regional fan base. Last night’s Cowell slating was possibly more a gradual dismantling and may well have helped generate more votes for him this week.
Stevi Ritchie was on last & only had 10 minutes to muster enough votes to avoid bottom spot – it is hard to imagine many viewers were giving him their votes before he came on and performed. His support may well have been short-lived. There is clear doubt as to whether he will have gained enough to avoid the bottom 2 tonight.
Lauren may well not be connecting with viewers, the Katy Perry song didn’t really work, she looked uncomfortable on stage and her Halloween make-over was rather alienating. I took some 20-1 earlier today on her being bottom 2 and she still looks value at 16s.
At the odds, Jay James and Fleur East also make plenty of appeal. There is reason to doubt how robust Fleur’s vote is despite Cowell’s efforts to push her.
Jay’s song felt very forgettable on the night, it was a strange rendition and it is highly questionable how popular he is, especially when Ben had such a strong night opening the show, and Paul and Andrea likely further dent his vote. 7-1 looked too big earlier today, and 6-1 still looks too big.
This could prove wide of the mark, but last night had the hallmarks of trying to create a shock bottom 2 tonight, and Cowell is due to lose an act.
If Stevi is in there, there is the chance to controversially save him. But if it’s Stevi vs Fleur or Stevi vs Jay James, you can see Stevi being eliminated.
Recommendations:
Stevi – bottom 2 – 7-2 – Ladbrokes – 4pt win
Fleur – bottom 2 – 7-2 – Ladbrokes – 4pt win
Jay – bottom 2 – 6-1 – Ladbrokes & William Hill – 3pt win
Lauren – bottom 2 – 16-1 – Skybet – 1pt win
Bottom 2 combos, all with Skybet:
Jay, Fleur – 33-1 – 0.5pt win
Jay, Stevi – 40-1 – 0.5pt win
Fleur, Stevi – 28-1 – 0.5pt win
Lauren, Fleur – 100-1 – 0.25pt win
Lauren, Jay – 150-1 – 0.25pt win
Lauren, Stevi – 125-1 – 0.25pt win
Another disappointing evening. Favourite backers are cleaning up so far this series. Taking on Lola at those rididuclous short odds was the correct play which is hard to justify when you end up losing.
Unlucky Rob. I have agreed with many of your bets this series and beginning to wonder if the value plays will come good soon.
What are your thoughts on Only The Young? I have had some decent money at 50/1 EW and Top Group at 7/2 earlier today, I think they represent excellent value at the moment. Given some good treatment they could gain momentum following the monster mash.
Hi Fred. Thanks for posting. It’s certainly been a tough series so far for value seekers.
I was keen on OTY at series start & could see a strong argument for them ending up Top Group and possibly challenging for a place in the final. They are a 5-figure green for me on the Outright & I’ve got them for Top Group at 11-2.
The idea was, if Stereo Kicks didn’t fly with the public then OTY would likely get the full weight of the producers behind them.
SK haven’t flown with the public but it looks like they are going to persist with them having saved them twice now in sing-offs.
Will they assassinate OTY for the sake of SK? You can’t put anything past the shameless Syco. It looks on a knife-edge but at the odds I think your investments are wise.
Thanks Rob, interesting to hear your views. I agree they are on a knife edge – seems like this week is make or break. May be worth a small cover on the elimination market.
Boys
Andrea Faustini – Somebody To Love
Paul Akister – Don’t Stop Me Now
Girls
Lauren Platt – I’ll Be There
Groups
Stereo Kicks – You Are Not Alone
Only The Young – Blame It On The Boogie
Overs
Ben Haenow – Man In The Mirror
Fleur East – Will You Be There
Jay James – The Show Must Go On
Stevi Ritchie – Bohemian Rhapsody