Has Misha Run Out Of Sympathy Cards?

Nov 23, 2011 by

So… yet another classic XF hatchet job, this time on Craig, who may as well have sung ‘A Licence To Kill Me Off’ with the Grim Reaper stood over him. As we outlined previously, we always sensed he was never considered winner material and was being kept in purely as a buffer.
This series we have consistently seen textbook executions of contestants they no longer want on the show, so much so that elimination, bottom 2 and bottom 2 combo bets have proved incredibly fruitful for those who have a keen eye for how these shows operate.
But what can we expect to see this Saturday? Well, the remaining 5 contestants will all sing 2 tunes with the themes of Guilty Pleasures and Heroes. Sounds like a great opportunity to hang whoever it is they wish to hang by describing their performance as ‘karaoke’ – keep an eye out if Coral offer this ‘Special’. It looks a good thing.
What is for certain is TPTB will continue to ‘manage’ the public vote through a clever combination of running order, song choice, VTs, judges’ comments and staging.
Misha got the full works last Saturday in her VT to save her from the bottom 2. Could they take this to another level yet? Maybe wheel out the blind girl she is alleged to have bullied when she was younger, and get Misha to make a public apology before singing ‘Bright Eyes’ to her? Never under-estimate the absurd lengths XF will go to to manipulate its voters. They are totally shameless.
That all said, we think Misha is highly likely to land in the bottom 2 again. Rumours suggest Amelia topped the vote on her triumphant return, only to sink back into the bottom 2 last Saturday. Misha has already been bottom 2 twice, and her third sing-off looks very much on the cards. But who will join her?
Some are claiming Marcus’s vote has either stalled or is going backwards after his pimp slot and glowing praise on Saturday. While other polling indicators suggest Janet’s vote has also gone into reverse in the last few weeks. Who knows? Who the hell really knows?
We wouldn’t be surprised if polling is quite close, and certainly close enough for TPTB to be able to get the bottom 2 they so desire again.
They have given us contradictory messages regarding Janet. De-ramped for a succession of weeks, she came out on Saturday, sang the ideal song for her beautifully, and for once this was backed up by positive comments. Though you sense the judges have laid the groundwork for the next Janet fall from grace, if they so desire. There may be a ramp ahead for Amelia and a classic XF bounce, but maybe not enough at this stage for her to escape the bottom 2, while Little Mix look as safe as houses. So the early play is to take prices with Skybet on the bottom 2 combos of Misha/Amelia at 7-4, Misha/Janet at 9-2 and Misha/Marcus at 14-1.
The big imponderable is, if they succeed in getting Janet into the bottom 2, what will they do next? We wonder if they might contrive a deadlock, which would surely see the exit of Misha, and Janet would then be slightly damaged leading into the final 4 which should be a straight public vote, and which would likely see the back of Amelia, enabling Janet to make the final.
To save Misha again, and eliminate Janet would likely see Amelia and Misha battling it out for survival on the public vote the following week. And whoever won through would look destined for 3rd place. We still sense the show would not want Amelia having even a sniff of victory and we wonder if a best finishing position of 4th or 5th is already pre-booked for her.
As we suggested last week, how the show continues to progress is most likely about giving Little Mix the best chance of victory. And if Janet is the contestant who has consistently been polling the highest, it would make sense to either get rid of the Mixes biggest threat (if they can), or severely dent her.
In terms of post-show career success, however, we still think Little Mix and Janet are the two most likely to do best, which might suggest TPTB would like to see these two in the final. Dilemmas, dilemmas…
News that Coldplay are possibly lined up to sing with one of the finalists is another intriguing development as you might easily conclude this would be a perfect match for Janet and her rendition of ‘Fix You’. On balance, we still think a final 3 of Little Mix, Marcus and Janet looks most likely.
Little Mix are now a best price of 2-1 on the Outright, so if you’ve been taking our advice, since they were first flagged up at 66-1 e/w, you should be staring at a potentially massive pay-out if they win and a very nice return if, at the very least, they make the final. And we expect them to go from strength to strength from this point on, but you should never count your chickens before they’ve hatched, especially in tv betting land.
We advised a few weeks ago now starting to play the Straight Forecast market incorporating Little Mix, Janet and Marcus in your perms. The prices have since come down, but we would still advise the following combos:
Little Mix to beat Marcus9-2 (bet365, William Hill) – 6pts win
Marcus to beat Little Mix11-2 (bet365, Betfred) – 5pts win
Little Mix to beat Janet8-1 (Betfred, William Hill) – 4pts win
Janet to beat Little Mix10-1 (Betfred, Skybet) – 3pts win
Rob Furber

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