Ill-Gotten Gains

Nov 29, 2014 by Rob

It’s the quarter-final of X Factor this evening and the market considers Lauren most likely to get the chop. Given she has not been bottom 2 yet and outside of Fleur has received the most consistent eulogizing from all the judges, series-long, this doesn’t sit right.

The only grounds for thinking Lauren isn’t wanted as a finalist this year is the fact she hasn’t been favoured in terms of running order slots – yet to receive a single pimp slot. Some suggest both Fleur and Lauren in the final would not provide the ideal balance, but that seems tenuous – given they are likely to be joined by 8 guys – as does the suggestion getting rid of Lauren at the final 5 stage will give Fleur an extra push towards winning this year’s series – where is the vote transference between Lauren and Fleur? It is something of a stretch to think Lauren’s most likely teen and pre-teen fans will suddenly switch allegiances to Fleur.

If you compare Ben’s treatment to Lauren’s series-long, Ben’s has been far more negative overall. In the last few weeks he has had plenty of criticism from the judges and a VT painting him as a white van man, again, which hardly screams star appeal. Also, it may not have gone unnoticed by TPTB that his vocal is consistently flat. If they want a reliable performer in the final, then Lauren certainly has the edge on him.

So the market looks wrong and Lauren has drifted to a very attractive price on the Outright. The biggest question mark hangs over Lauren’s health as we have had stories she has been suffering from flu and had to mime her way through rehearsals yesterday.

She will very likely struggle to give her best tonight so much hinges on how TPTB decide to play it. Will they actively seek a sympathy vote for Lauren with her VT and post-song critiques focusing on her illness, and her bravery in soldiering through, or will they play it down?

It seems more likely Lauren will get something of a sympathy boost. In terms of song choices, you have to expect a slowed down version of ‘Don’t You Worry Child’, and her to be able to cope much better with this than the uptempo and more demanding ‘Clarity’.

Fleur and Stereo Kicks both look to have solid enough song choices. There is perhaps more of a question mark over Ben’s choices which, while in his comfort zone, seem rather dull. But you can imagine the critique for Ben will be along the lines of, ‘back doing songs that suit your voice best’.

Of all the songs, the selection of ‘Chandelier’ for Andrea is perhaps the most eyebrow-raising. It’s a struggle to imagine this being a triumph. Ultimately, it will come down to how the judges play it in their comments for him, and whether they try to either encourage a bounce or quell it.

Last week, Stereo Kicks had the advantage of 5 free app votes x 2 from their tweenie fans which helped them steer clear of the bottom 2 on Sunday night. They won’t be able to rely on that this week and there may be a strategy TPTB have in mind for them to land bottom 2 tomorrow night and then bounce to very likely third place in the final.

Andrea certainly looks the value to be eliminated this week with a saver on Ben. Fleur looks highly likely to avoid the bottom 2 so let’s assume she out of the running in terms of potential bottom 2 combos this week.

If it’s Ben vs SK, Ben will be gone. If it’s Andrea vs SK, then Andrea will be gone. The one and only scenario most likely to lead to Lauren’s exit would be Lauren vs Stereo Kicks. If Lauren is against Andrea, she would surely be saved, and if against Ben very likely saved based on their respective series-long treatments, unless they use the illness card as a reason to get rid of her against anyone.

In Strictly, it’s Round The World night which seems yet another needless theme. Sunetra looks banker material to be eliminated but 1-4 isn’t the sort of play this site would ever recommend on Strictly.

The only chance to grab a bit of value this week is in the Highest Scorer market. Caroline has impressed in training dancing the Charleston, and looks over-priced, while it is easy to envisage Frankie’s jive also being a show-stopper and a potential pimp slot performance. These 2 look worth dutching.

Pixie has the rather dull VW to call upon this week, while Simon has the waltz. Jake has the more dramatic Argentine tango, and Mark a Vegas-themed salsa. Simon looks most likely to find himself in the bottom 2 with Sunetra which might actually help him in terms of next week’s more important quarter-final.

Recommendations:

X Factor:

Andrea – to be eliminated – 3-1 – 3pt win – widely available

Ben – to be eliminated – 7-1 – 1pt win – widely available

Strictly:

Caroline – highest score – 10-1 – 2pt win – Ladbrokes

Frankie – highest score – 100-30 – 3pt win – William Hill