Is Jade A Lock For Bottom 2?
The bottom 2 and elimination markets have moved heavily in our favour following last night’s X Factor. Hopefully, you took our advice and got on Jade for next elimination at 8-1 (now a best price 11-4), and to be in the bottom 2 at 11-4 (now 4-5).
It was another extremely forgettable effort by Jade and the judges seemed eager to collectively talk her down. There was also plenty of talk about Jade being in danger which can be a motivation for fans to get voting so maybe all is not lost for her.
Kye was first up on the night and got the classic bounce treatment, bar Louis saying he doesn’t think he has the x factor. This felt like a damaging parting shot and we were again left with the over-riding impression there is something innately unvotable about Kye. The bottom 2 bounce can be a powerful thing, however, and he has probably just done enough.
We advised a pre-show back of Union J to be in the bottom 2 at 11-2. You can still get 11-2 with Skybet at time of writing. This looks a value bet ahead of tonight’s results show as they had a pretty ordinary night and their performance got a bit lost. Certainly Rylan stole their thunder with his entertaining performance in trap 3 and we will definitely make a lay of Rylan for bottom 2 one of our plays.
Ella had a poor night. Her vocal was fine but what wasn’t fine was the way they slowed down the Evanescence track for her. It would have been healthier for her long-term prospects if she had been asked to sing it as per the original version rather than that awful arrangement.
Gary talking to Chris about his nerves during the VT initially looked a positive for him. After all, it was mainly this that won him a big fan base in the first place. But we then had the diversion tactics of Gary’s fabricated spat with Tulisa post-performance and we reckon this was used as an attempt to deflate Chris’s vote.
It leaves us slightly uncertain Chris will avoid the bottom 2. Given his healthy voting figures in previous weeks according to the Daily Star, he should escape the bullet once more but we won’t be trading on it. District 3 endured a judges’ deramp but this may well have served as a big motivation to their teenage fans to get multi-voting.
Jahmene produced his first decent performance of the series and he and James both strengthened their final claims. Jade being the sandwich between 2 such impressive efforts also had the waft of Carolynne Poole’s dismantlement in week 1.
We would call tonight’s bottom 2 as most likely Jade + 1. District 3 look the most obvious candidates to join her but after their meteoric rise the previous week we think they may well have built up enough of a following to escape the drop zone. If it does end up a Jade vs District 3 sing-off we would certainly be looking to lay D3 for elimination as we’re pretty sure the show would like the boyband battle to continue.
We will also play some bottom 2 combos involving Jade, District 3, Union J and Chris. If we could, we would certainly be tucking into Skybet‘s quotes of Chris/Jade at 11-1, Chris/District 3 at 14-1, Jade/Union J at 16-1, Chris/Union J at 22-1 and District 3/Union J at 25-1.
Where do you see things heading tonight? Drop us a line and join the debate.
Rob Furber
District 3 to be saved by the judges (or via deadlock) at 7-2 with Skybet might be a wise play, along with a lay of D3 for bottom 2 around the Evens mark on BF.
I can’t see anyone going but Jade or D3 and there’s still some value 3.75 and 3.5 respectively as I see both odds falling below 3.0 later today.
As of now I don’t see much value in the btm 2 markets other than the UJ price you mentioned Rob.
Totes agree. I love Jade, she was one of my favourites in week 2 and 3, but last night was desperate. Sabotage. I just can’t see who will vote for that performance (her fans won’t) and yep, it was a Jahmene-Jade-James sandwich for the second week running, except at the end of the show this time, putting her in even more danger. Jade to go, sadly.
I’m not as confident as previous weeks, but on my twitter figures D3 are above UJ for the 2nd week running, so I’ll be backing UJ for B2.
I also have Kye down on his rating from last week and think he’s far from safe.
So backs of Kye and UJ B2 for me.
A lay of Jade for B2 and backing her for elim looks good too, as I feel they’ll dump her over virtually anyone.
There would appear some serious market confidence behind Chris avoiding the bottom 2 again. Maybe Kye is the more vulnerable of the 2…?
A lay of District 3 for bottom 2 certainly appears the wise safe play if you have D3 at bigger odds for elim & bottom 2.
A big slump for Chris on the DS headline poll (not the forum one).
Along with TVpolls it was the one poll he was doing OK in.
I’ll await Tvpolls with interest and if that shows a slump too, then he might be far from safe.
Having thought about it some more today, have a sneaky suspicion Chris could well be bottom 2. Kye boost from bounce + ramp; District 3 receive fan boost due to de-ramp…
That diversion squabble being so vitriolic may prove to be the coup de grace.
Chris/Jade b2 combo definitely worth a cover & 15-2 Chris to be eliminated with b365 looks very big given the price he has traded at in previous weeks.
In the fresh TVpolls Chris is doing even more ok than last week, Jade also not too bad. I have to admit I hate the polls with such low amount of participants but Chris looks very safe again.
Yep, Chris doing well on tvpolls
http://tvpolls.co.uk/results/xf2012aw4hall.asp
Jade doing ok too, as you say Boki.
People also feel she’s in danger, so are more likely to vote.
UJ not doing well and everything thinks they are safe. A very dodgy position to be in.
everyone not everything*
Thanks chaps,
Hmm… on the back of this, think it is worth increasing stakes on Union J for bottom 2, & happy to lay some more Jade bottom 2 off at odds on.
Jade and District3 are the obvious candidates for bottom 2, but is it really going to be that simple? I am worried about Rylan, Kye, Christopher and even Union J slipping in there.
Having watched the show back I thought that Jade’s staging made it look like she was being struck by lightning in the middle of a spiderweb. When Nicole was criticising her, it took the audience ages before anyone booed, and it was only a couple of people. Hardly anyone cheered for her either or chanted her name like they do with some of the others. It all whiffed of Carolynne Poole. Also a slight subliminal message in Jade’s song choice “Freak Like Me” = she’s a freak!
Exactly Tim, it rarely is that simple, largely because we are probably only talking about a few percentage pts between the bottom 6.
Which is why it is often best to take a value approach & locking in profits, however small, via backing & laying, without leaving yourself exposed.
That’s good advice, Rob. I just hedged my bet on Rylan as I started laying him at 5.0 and at around 9.0 on Betfair is cost me hardly anything to do so. In any case, I can’t imagine BOTH District3 and Jade escaping the bottom 2. Therefore I agree with Chiggs above that one of them should be toast.
Wow – what a night! Hope our readers cleaned up – should have done if you followed us in 🙂 A recap of advised trades this week:
Jade – 8-1 – next elimination – landed!
Jade – 11-4 – bottom 2 – landed!
Union J – 11-2 – bottom 2 – landed!
Rylan – bottom 2 lay – landed!
Jade/Union J – 16-1 – bottom 2 combo – landed!
Hope everyone is a good few quid richer tonight!
Great stuff Rob.
My biggest win of the series. All down to UJ B2
Was being laid in the 9’s at the end.
Guys what can I say, I’m amazed.
Hope you followed some of the recommendations, Boki 🙂
I wish I did (I mean UJ, Jade was my choice also).
A friendly advice: keep the stakes low next week because if I decide to follow the advices against my own logic (as UJ was this week) and knowing my luck nothing will land 🙂
Rylan and Chris are favourites for next elimination, but I can’t see either of them as likely to go this week. Rylan would probably be saved against anyone remotely likely to land in the bottom 2. Chris is popular, and as long as he isn’t thrown under the bus with song choice I can see him being safe again this week. I would therefore have to have previous visitors to the bottom 2, Kye and District3, as in by far the most danger. Kye is coming down from his sympathy bounce and has the forgettable factor, Union J are due theirs and so it’s possible the voters will forget about District3 in being desperate to keep Union J safe.
Lucy (assuming she returns) is due a hefty welcome back/sympathy vote. One has to assume Ella will receive the bulk of Jade’s fans’ votes. I think that Jahméne and James are both far too popular at the moment to hit the bottom 2, regardless of how they are treated. Thoughts Rob or anyone else?
That is a very logical analysis Tim. With only Ella & Lucy left on the female side, that might also favour Lucy being protected this week.
Imagine they will try & erode Chris’s vote further. Hard to know by how much his percentage needs to reduce to get him into the bottom 2. Sense his early lead in the polls is slowly being eaten away.
District 3 certainly more vulnerable than Union J given the bounce factor but maybe they will want to get both bands through again to continue their faux battle.
Yes, following the same logic that sent UJ to bot2 it’s time for D3. I would be amazed if Kye bounce lasts more than 1 week but it really depends on the song choice (as for everyone).