Jahmene The Elimination Value
This weekend’s X Factor semi-final is shrouded in a fair degree of fog right now as we don’t know for sure whether there will be a bottom 2 and a sing-off, or last place on the public vote will be automatically eliminated.
Given how shameless the show is, we wouldn’t be surprised it nothing is made clear until they see Sunday’s voting figures, and we have a similar situation to Tesco’s Mary vs Cher Lloyd. You can’t help but think if they can somehow get Chris second last on the pv, then a sing-off will likely be on the cards, so they can get rid of him.
If it is pv-only then Union J look worthy odds-on favs to be next eliminated. But they do have a sporting chance of survival – as they will likely get the traditional bottom 2 bounce, and TPTB may decide to give them another ramp in the hope of getting them in the final. The reason for this might be that a respectable 3rd place (like One Direction) would give them a better platform for post-show commercial success.
Producers’ intentions might be largely dictated by just how high James was able to bounce last week, and whether they believe they can carry his momentum far enough to get him over the finish line in first place. James’s song choices are going to be pivotal from this point on as to stand the best chance of winning he probably needs to be Matt Cardle-d to a certain extent and get away from the angst-ridden, miserabilist style he favours.
We sense James is now TCO and the one on a downward trajectory at the moment is Jahmene. We reckon he has been losing vote share over the last 2 weeks – we already know Chris pulled further clear of Jahmene the previous week courtesy of the Star, a remarkable feat given this was the week of Chris’s laser eyes staging if you recall.
And last Saturday, for the first time, we heard the judges de-ramping Jahmene, which likely saw his vote share drop further, despite yet another sympathy VT. Both his live efforts were eclipsed on the night and we wouldn’t be surprised if viewers are getting sick and tired of his relentless sob story VTs. The gospel theme should have played to his strengths but it didn’t at all, and we certainly doubt whether he is winning any new fans at this stage whereas James might well be.
So if Union J can get enough of a bottom 2 bounce, combined with a big enough judges’ and VT ramp, we see Jahmene as the likeliest casualty. For this reason, our trading strategy pre-show will be to back Union J at a best-priced 5-6 to be next eliminated, and also back Jahmene to be next eliminated at 10-1, ensuring a cosy profit if either is eliminated.
While the media message coming out of X Factor HQ this week has been to cool off the Maloney criticism – which we might see on the show too to try and kill off some of his sympathy vote – we reckon his fan base is strong enough to keep him in the top 2 on the public vote this weekend. Topping the pv for 7 straight weeks is seriously impressive especially given the vote-killing tactics he has had to withstand.
As stated previously here, we sense there has been a degree of kidology at work with Chris’s treatment and the show would probably quite like to have him in the final now to generate more publicity, more drama and more votes.
If the show has conceded defeat in trying to get Chris off the show before the final, the question then becomes who out of James, Jahmene and Union J is most expendable in 4th place. We’re not sure the answer is that clear cut but at the odds we are willing to take the chance TPTB may decide Jahmene’s journey has run its course.
Looking further ahead, we are also happy to take the prices on a James/Chris reverse forecast at best odds of 8-1 and 12-1.
How do you expect this weekend’s shows to pan out? Are you as confident as us that Chris will now make the final? Join the conversation by dropping us a line below.
Rob Furber
Agree. Great strategy. People are now assuming Jahmene is safe the way they assumed Ella and James were, which is dangerous.
EntertainOdds looks like last place will automatically be eliminated now, obviously if Maloney can fall into B2 that’ll change!
Yes, I did not articulate that in the article but you are spot on, ev – apathy could be the real Jahmene killer this w/e.
Rob – do you have that confirmed somewhere?
I’ve thought about backing Jahmene but I’ve been put off because he hasn’t been btm 2 and TPTB cannot risk losing him and allow Chris to absorb a large share of his voters.
If he continues to be pimped less then he’s worth backing in order to (possibly) hedge out post show.
Maybe so Chiggs, though it confounds me to imagine Jahmene fans wanting to jump aboard the good ship Maloney. They seem poles apart by way of what they offer the XF audience: one, a warbling little soul boy; the other, an old-fashioned crooner of power ballads.
Agree with UJ to go (have them on evens) and the rest really depends on where did they get James last week (which we doesn’t know of course). I sense they could also engineer a sing-off if UJ are 3rd and James 4th in order to save James. Jahmene on the other hand will go only if he is 4th and they are happy with that.
I don’t agree with ev that people now assume someone is safe so I’ll wait for the show in Jahmene’s case to see if they really would seriously ramp UJ and continue to deramp Jahmene.
It was me in the previous comment 🙂
Thanks Boki – the live show, as always, will give us many more clues.
As a pre-show bet, UJ to be eliminated at Evens looks a wise play.
This would appear to confirm there is no sing-off this weekend, & bottom of the pv will be eliminated:
http://tellymix.co.uk/reality-tv/the-x-factor/121133-x-factor-2012-no-sing-off-in-the-semi-final.html
Interesting way in which the story has been put together – telling readers James and Union J are in most jeopardy. With regards incentive to vote, this is good news for them both.
Interesting piece, Rob, but I disagree that Jahméne is in danger. Us clued-up cynics may tire of calculated sob stories, but I would argue that the voters can’t get enough of them. Jahméne’s is the mother (if you pardon the pun) of all sob stories; I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a contestant with a sob story so powerful. I don’t think anyone has pointed this out but there are also two words why Jahméne will generate enough momentum for a podium finish: (Patrick Bateman voice) Whitney Houston. Anyone who follows him on twitter or Facebook will know that he is absolutely obsessed with her. He posts her lyrics or quotes from her several times a week. TPTB are surely saving a Whitney cover or two for the remaining two weeks. There are at least ten Whitney songs he would effortlessly nail – and any of which would be big vote winners. Not to mention that he is yr typical talent show winner.
In terms of a saver this week, I’ll most likely be looking at JAMES instead. He’s potentially coming down from a sympathy bounce, is not Saturday night-friendly etc.It will depend on the performances, but it’s also possible that I won’t have a saver at all. With no sing-off all but confirmed, Union J look like dead men walking. And as we all learned this week (courtesy of Richard Betsfactor), all of James’s fans will be too busy out sh*gging this weekend to vote for him 😉
I’m with Tim, it seems even more clear if there is no sing-off. My view is that they are simply not going to help UJ at all and make sure that Jahmene/James end up in the final. So no saver at the moment, can change after the show, of course.
We shall see, chaps.
In UJ’s favour is Louis getting them on The Late, Late Show last night – it has high ratings & may well ensure them a big vote from that neck of the woods.
For the mix of the final, TPTB may well want UJ in there. Momentum is key at this stage – recall Olly Murs in series 6 bouncing back from a b2 appearance at last 6 stage & building momentum all the way to the runners-up spot.
To dump Ella in favour of James suggests strongly they are going to go all out on James for the win now. Media message already stating it is UJ & James in danger this week = motivation to vote.
And the market moves on BF indicate strongly that James is going to have another big w/e – he is now Outright fav. Jahmene is fantastic value to be eliminated.
I still see UJ as favorites, maybe a saver on James.
James The Elimination Value? Really unsure if I should have a saver hmm…