Joe is no Shmoe
As we have already seen, song choice and judges comments are two essential components in X Factor, and the great imponderable leading into the live show. On Saturday it’s worth keeping an eye on Digital Spy’s X Factor forum as song choices are usually revealed on there.
Kandy Rain were stitched up like a kipper last week, given a dated Robert Palmer song – we thought it was Robbie Williams week – and then slaughtered for what they were wearing by the two female judges, their vocal performance, which outshone many on the night, totally overlooked. Collectively, this sealed their fate in the bottom two, whereas the Grimes Twins were given the coveted last slot, an uplifting Williams anthem in Rock DJ, and all the choreographed elements to ensure they stood out.
The Grimes became a fantastic lay to avoid the bottom two, and looking ahead we expect the same pattern to continue, especially in light of this ‘leaked’ memo which suggests the X Factor presenters have been requested to back the twins: http://bit.ly/Yqdxh
With Rachel more than likely to get the, ‘You’ve bounced back in style’ treatment from the judges, and her vote to leap up on the back of her appearance in the bottom two on Saturday, the value for 2nd week elimination lies outside the front two in the market.
Week two is ‘diva’ week and looking down the remaining 11 contestants, Lloyd certainly stands out as someone who may struggle. With Rikki backed by a powerful Scottish vote, and the show unlikely to want another group to go, we can foresee a scenario of another surprising face in the bottom two, so we recommend small investments on Lloyd at 10s and Olly Murs at 25s.
In the outright market, Jamie Archer has drifted to 10s, which looks decent value while Joe McElderry has shortened dramatically on the back of a decent first song. Joe is now a best-priced 11-2 which looks short enough but we suggest getting Joe in the green as he looks a series runner, and like Jamie if he drifts in the coming few weeks, he’ll be worth backing again.
Rob Furber
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uh7l-NZqi1E