Johnson & Johnson Power
The intriguing question heading into this weekend’s X Factor final is whether Reggie n Bollie could topple red-hot fav Louisa. We have two contestants never to have landed bottom 2/3 and we are only guessing how they have done up until this point on the public vote. That in itself makes a 1.2 to 7 price differential look a little excessive.
It certainly appears a 2-horse race and with the chance of RnB raising the roof at Wembley and going down such a storm they end up stealing the show, that current Betfair Back price of 7 might be on the generous side.
Tomorrow night the 3 remaining acts will perform 2 songs each as follows:
Ché Chesterman
: In The Air Tonight – Phil Collins
, Valerie – Mark Ronson Ft. Amy Winehouse
Louisa Johnson
: Fighter – Christina Aguilera,
I Believe I Can Fly – R Kelly
Reggie ‘N’ Bollie
: Spice Up Your Life / Boom Boom Boom – Spice Girls / Outhere Brothers,
Jump – Kriss Kross
There was a hint this afternoon ‘Jump’ will be RnB’s first song and Sean Paul might guest duet with them on the mash up of the Spice Girls – ‘Spice Up Your Life’ and Outhere Brothers – ‘Boom Boom’. Whatever happens, both those songs should certainly get the crowd bouncing.
At time of writing we only know for sure about Rita duetting with Louisa. ‘Fighter’ looks a solid enough choice for such a duet. Presumably ‘In The Air Tonight’ will be Che’s duet song. Like a lot of Che’s song choices throughout the series it is a little dated as it was first released in 1981.
Che’s new song is another Amy Winehouse tune, ‘Valerie’. What we are seeing here is a repetition of the retro style they have consistently strait-jacketed Che with. It is a similar sort of treatment they gave to Marcus Collins in 2011 and Jahmene Douglas in 2012.
Louisa’s new song is the Yolanda Adams version of R Kelly’s ‘I Believe I Can Fly’. While we can expect to see a choir joining her on stage to try and create a moment, there is no escaping the dirge-like quality of that tune.
On Sunday, she will also reprise last week’s semi-final triumph – James Brown’s ‘This Is A Man’s World’. The recency of that song might see it lack quite the same impact as first time around, much like Fleur singing ‘Uptown Funk’ for a second time in the space of 8 days in last year’s final.
RnB are slated for their week 2 mash up of One Direction – ‘What Makes You Beautiful’ and OMI – ‘Cheerleader’ while Che will reprise his week 1 medley of ‘Tears Dry On Their Own’ and ‘Ain’t No Mountain High Enough’.
Where Cowell and his Syco team are shrewd with these song choices is, we will probably find last week’s polling figure for Louisa was the best it has been all series. And it would come as no surprise if Che’s slice of the vote in week 1 was far less impressive.
Having advised RnB e/w first 3 places at 14-1, an unexpected win for them will be welcomed here and by anyone who has backed them at big prices. BUT, would Cowell really be happy to have got the golden girl Louisa on the verge of victory only to risk defeat in the final? It seems unlikely.
A more likely scenario is that her polling already has an unassailable look about it and RnB will merely consolidate second place.
Every year in X Factor we see some acts heavily favoured and others unaided and unceremoniously taken down. That is the nature of the show which makes the vitriol Louisa’s progress has generated in this series seem disproportionate and somewhat hysterical. By comparison, Fleur received far greater favouritism last year.
The fact is, since her first audition Louisa always had the look of TCO and a solid favourite in this shortened series of live shows. The view here is, she would be a thoroughly deserving winner having consistently produced top notch performances throughout the live shows while a win for RnB would have to go down as the greatest ‘feel good’ winner the show has ever seen.
Good luck with your investments and enjoy the two shows. Sunday should be especially good by X Factor standards with Adele and Coldplay performing.
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Well done on RnB e/w. As for the win, I used to think RnB would be a ‘feel good’ winner and even good for Cowell as he’d still sign and promote Louisa. But I think they’ve been weak singers and therefore a win wouldn’t be good for the brand.
Hi Henry. I am only hopeful over RnB’s winning chance. My intuition says Louisa will win, so it’ll likely be a small e/w profit.
Turning a decent profit over the course of the X Factor series has become a lot tougher in recent years.
If you have seen the betting advice I have put up on both Strictly and X Factor this year, the level of investment has been far bigger on Strictly because for me it offers much better value than X Factor.
I hope both series have been profitable for you 🙂
Ladbrokes have some Saturday judges buzzword bingo prices. The 3 that make most appeal are:
‘I’m so proud of you’ – 4-1
‘You’re 17-years-old’ – 4-1
‘I want everyone in Essex to pick up the phone and vote’ – 6-1
Advised:
‘I’m so proud of you’ – 4-1 – 1pt win – Ladbrokes
‘I’m so proud of you’ – landed at 4-1 🙂
Also landed the earlier advised RnB in the ‘without Louisa’ market at 7-2
A profitable night.
Sometimes I wish to relocate to UK in order to get access to all UK bookies 🙂
Where are you based Boki? I could only make that a 1pt win bet as I visited Ladbrokes and £10 was the in-shop maximum bet. Still, a nice little win.
From the Netherlands Rob, only few UK bookies have NL not listed in restricted territories 🙁
Do you ever go across to Germany, Boki, during Eurovision? I gather there are some high street bookmakers there that offer ESC odds…?
You mean like shops? Never done it, prefer to do everything online from my lazy chair 🙂
Yes, I heard they have shops there & ESC odds. Vienna didn’t have, sadly.
Hi Rob. Thanks to you for advising this bet, and thanks also to Olly Murs for asking such a loaded question!
Hopefully Ladbrokes will do something similar for the Strictly final.
Hi James. It at least got us our stakes back on Kellie elim bet. I did back Anita in-running for elim cos I thought 7-1 was too big but didn’t advise it here as it did have the look of a Katie hatchet job and I figured it would be Katie losing to Anita in the dance-off.
Don’t know if you got involved backing Katie for 4th and in the ‘w/o Jay’ market e/w but that has worked out well for a guaranteed profit either way.
From D.Star article today:
Louisa, 17, is being tipped by bookies to become the youngest X Factor victor in the show’s 12-year-old history.
But she faces stiff competition from rap duo Reggie N Bollie, who have dominated the public vote throughout this series.
Weekly vote stats: http://www.itv.com/xfactor/news/the-2015-voting-stats-are-in
Can only think the D.Star saw the phone vote only which must represent a tiny percentage of the overall vote so not especially revealing or helpful.
Louisa a deserving winner. Hope it was a profitable series for readers.