Luke Crashes Back To Earth

Nov 9, 2013 by

Luke Crashes Back To Earth

The coffin slot for Abi tonight. Not remotely a surprise. Let the hatchet job commence. Louis lead the way with the criticism, Sharon chipped in, but Gary then complimented her. It was an attempt at faint praise though there was a sense of plenty of good will for Abi after this which might help her perform a Houdini Act yet.

The John Lewis ad got its premiere during the ad break that followed which was a reminder how Abi’s shtick is very much in vogue right now.

Sam Bailey was the full P&O ferry tonight singing ‘New York, New York’ but they raved because well… it was in the script to rave about it and send Abi down the memory plug hole. Was it a positive for Sam B that Louis said she’s the one to beat? In X Factor speak, that is like Derek Thompson trying to tip next year’s Derby winner.

Nicholas in trap 3 suggests strongly again that TPTB are trying to ensure this guy never gets out of first gear, the dreary song choice not remotely helping him build momentum. I nearly fell asleep during this subdued effort.

Luke had his worst night to date. Very off-key in places. Gary was critical, so was Nicole. Definitely in the mix for bottom 2 after this.

Hannah helped Luke to a degree by putting in a very lacklustre effort. This was the definition of ‘meh’. And Louis’ initial critique continued the over-riding sense of ‘meh’. Hannah looks in more jeopardy of bottom 2 than Luke after this. A hat concealing her face at the start of her performance and the cackled laughter after it did not help her.

Rough Copy probably did enough to avoid bottom 2 mainly thanks to the song. Their harmonising was again poor in places. Nicole was ‘on script’ calling them final 3-ers. Syco really wants these guys to make the final.

Tamera put in a classy effort singing ‘Cry Me A River’. It was another low-key song choice though and Sharon managed to strike a negative note but this felt like it put Tamera in the safety zone this week.

Giving Sam C the pimp slot made the producers intentions clear. Let’s get Sam C clear of the drop zone and try and make sure Abi is in there with a.n. other. But it was a serious damning with faint praise from the judges with Gary given a gagging order. Even so, Sam C’s social networking crew should see him safe.

Abi, Luke and Hannah look the main 3 contenders for bottom 2. If Abi is bottom 2 she looks a goner. If it’s Luke vs Hannah, Hannah looks a goner.

If you have backed Abi for elimination at anything around the 5-2 mark we would advise laying her for bottom 2 around 1.5 on Betfair because, much like Sam C her core vote could be a lot stronger than many think and overall, we would be more confident Hannah is bottom 2 than Abi.


  1. Jay

    Good write up again Rob, as ever. Ive currently worked up a big green on Hannah and a tiny one on Abi but am weighing up switching that around. Am red on the rest. The dilemma is that like you I think Abi is more likely to escape b2 than Hannah but apart from Sam C And Abi I don’t see who Hannah beats in a sing off! That said if Hannah does survive and it’s an Abi Sam sing off I see them struggling to make Sam safe! Added to that I question how loyal Luke’s fan base is in that him being MIA pre lives makes his vote largely based on picking up floating votes and he even lost the crazy hair this week. Makes it a difficult week to call with confidence as the value lies with Hannah but yhe knives have been sharpened for Abi. Hannah’s facial expressions with her tongue flickering will def see her in the b2. I think I’ll leave my big green on her and reduce the liability in play and accept the loss if Sam C doesn’t survive the vote. Will probably hope to see some liquidity in the B2 combo market and cover a Luke Abi b2 to Make it a profitable weekif Hammah survives. I wonder if any that makes sense!
    Other views were that Sam B is most definatly TCO. She’s getting all the help anyone could ask for. Rough Copy were a mess on stage but the public will follow the propaganda. Nick is having his personality majorly stifled, he is highly enjoyable on the xtra factor but dulll on the lives. Wasn’t too sure what the whole angle with Taneras mum was about, desperate attempt to make her seem likeable but looked a lil engineered to remember her in week 5!

    • Rob

      I strongly suspect it will be Abi or Hannah departing tonight, Jay, & I would aim for more of an even green on both. But laying Abi so short for b2 looks the value call esp. if you have backed her to be eliminated at 2-1 or bigger.

      • I’ve been in the Abi/Hannah camp much of the week and wouldn’t be surprised to see Hannah leave the show tonight via deadlock.

        Hannah is dispensable. TPTB understand that Tamera can’t push on with Hannah still in the contest. With every act that leaves, it’s likely that Sam B’s support is bolstered most.

        If Hannah left, Tamera might be one of the benefactors. One other factor in suggesting Hannah would lose out in a deadlock dogfight is that there’s very little contrast between Tamera and Hannah. They do the same thing and fight over the same votes, but it’s clear Tamera has the greater potential. So Hannah has to be sacrificed to cement Tamera’s position in the show for another few weeks.

        The way I see it:

        Hannah vs Abi – Hannah goes in deadlock
        Hannah vs Luke – Hannah goes in deadlock

        If by some miracle Hannah avoids the bottom two, then Abi is toast.

        • Boki

          If Hannah vs Abi then normally Nicole is not going to vote so there could be no deadlock?

          • In that circumstance, I reckon they’d make her vote last and send it to deadlock. I just see that a Hannah elimination benefits Tamera.

          • zoomraker

            but if they’re so keen to benefit tamera why did hannah get the dead dad vt and great staging?

          • They’ve already wheeled out the dead dad story, and in terms of staging, I reckon Tamera was superior.

            I don’t think the show is actively trying to get rid of Hannah, I just reckon that if the opportunity presented itself they’d take it for the reasons presented above.

            The saaarrrrf London slang at the end of her performance won’t encourage floating voters either.

          • zoomraker

            there’s been a lot of white flight from london in recent years and that kind of black london slang along with the tongue flashing ain’t gonna bring in the votes

          • Kevin

            Gavster: is there any Twitter evidence you can point to today please? You are often very on the ball from what I’ve seen

          • I’ve been tracking it most of the day…

            Abi – should be in bottom two despite high traffic about 12:30. That has died down and looks fairly conclusive.

            Hannah – lowest traffic of all contestants. Most of Hannah’s mentions are negative. I think Hannah is bottom of vote tonight.

            Luke – has been level-pegging with Sam C most of the day, but Sam C winning battle for most traffic.

            Tamera’s sympathy bounce has just about worked, but she needs more protection for next week’s show. Her stats were improved, but still low. This is why I argue the show might cut Hannah loose.

          • Kevin

            Thank you, I am on Hannah to go so hoping it might happen. Sounds like it could go either way

          • I would still make sure you’ve got an Abi cover.

          • Kevin

            Just covered stake as you suggest. Be foolish not to, I hope & think Hannah will go still.

    • zoomraker

      anyone notice that nicole and abi had the same flower in their hair?

      i only mention it cos last week nicole and tamera had their hair styled the same and tamera went bottom 2.

  2. Rob

    It has been a really strange series in the sense Syco has been incompetent in its handling of Tamera if its modus operandi is to try & enable the most commercially attractive contestant to win.

    The incessant ramping has been for Sam B and Rough Copy up to this point. And it had also been for Luke up until last night.

    Meanwhile, when Tamera had her pimp slot she was de-ramped by Barlow, last week they gave her a vulnerable slot & a vote-losing song choice, & this week we had a judge (Sharon) droning on yet again about her not connecting = another de-ramp of sorts. Even Nick has had more consistent praise and less criticism aimed at him than Tamera, despite his woeful song choices & poor r.o. positions.

    They have recently lumbered Tamera with dull, downbeat tunes when surely her USP is doing more uptempo, edgy, R&B stuff.

    Calling Rough Copy top 3-ers doesn’t mean they will be btw, & if the show really wants Sam B & continues like this all the way to the final, well, I could never have predicted that pre-series.

  3. Rob

    Another decent week’s trading. Laying Sam C for bottom 2 has been the gift that keeps on giving, much like Chris Maloney was last year.

    Almost 100% certain Hannah was bottom of the public vote. No surprise to see Abi get the boot. She may as well not bothered to have sung at all in the sing-off.

    The weekly markets on XF & SCD are again proving highly lucrative.

  4. eurovicious

    Another good week for me this week – I backed both Abi and Hannah for B2 and dutched them for elimination as per you tip. (Being out of practice having not bet since May until last week, I wouldn’t have thought of that, so thank you.) Those were my only bets, so it was nice to have a full house. Now that the field is narrowing further, I’m not sure how much mileage there would be in them saving Hannah a third time, so I’ll be looking for “end of journey” narrative treatment in her case.

    Dark horse or no dark horse, I think his quite significant vocal weakness this week and his less favourable treatment the past two weeks shows that he can’t win and they don’t want him to.

    • Rob

      Good work, ev 🙂 So much, again, will be in the hands of TPTB but on first glance, you have to think Hannah is vulnerable of b2, as is Sam C as is possibly Luke.

      You would think they will continue with their relentless ramping of Rough Copy and for them to properly get behind Tamera too, starting with a much better, appropriate uptempo song for her which showcases a bit more of her potential urban/R&B edge and sassiness.

      The last 2 weeks’ song choices for her have been lousy but maybe that b2 appearance by her was part of the plan in helping to propel her James Arthur style.

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