On Shaky Ground

Oct 12, 2012 by

On Shaky Ground

It’s hard not to go into full on Kryten-from-Red-Dwarf ‘smug mode’ following Sunday’s analysis suggesting Carolynne Poole was a strong contender for bottom 2 regardless of her draw in 12, but if you missed it, you can read it here, here, and here 🙂

On the flipside of calling things right, it was something of a surprise to us to see Rylan drop into the bottom 2. One of our theories as to why that came to pass is that previous ‘cabaret’ contestants such as Jedward and Wagner were roundly slaughtered in early weeks by Simon Cowell, who played it to a tee cast as Mr Nasty.

He would slate them in his post-performance comments and this would inevitably lead to an enormous public backlash and as a two fingers up at Cowell’s cruel critiques viewers would vote to save them, to annoy him even more.

Gary Barlow is trying to play the exact same Cowell role but for whatever reason it doesn’t wash, and the public do not care enough to invest in Rylan. Maybe they are now more savvy to the X Factor dark arts, or maybe Rylan is not providing the wacky, off the wall entertainment of those past ‘fun’ acts and simply isn’t as lovable.

That said, having gone to such great lengths to save Rylan on Sunday, it would be a surprise if they immediately give up on him, so we think it’s far more likely they will try to engineer an edit that will push him clear of the drop zone.

The money this week has been all for Shaky Maloney to be departing on Sunday night. Certainly the clues are there in the form of a constant drip, drip, drip of negative press for Chris this week, and Louis labelling him ‘cruiseship’ to lead us to believe the finishing touches to his grave are likely to be carried out tomorrow night.

Betting suggests one of the groups are most likely to join him in the bottom 2 and given the attempt to take down District 3 last Saturday they appear prime candidates for further deramping. The dilemma is, they sang much better than boyband rivals Union J so might producers allow them a stay of execution?

Union J will certainly need to step up markedly performance-wise to ensure there isn’t a switch in the pecking order of the bands. As for MK1, we sense they have plenty more to give this series as the edgy ‘urban act’ so expect them to receive a good edit.

Overall, we would rather look elsewhere for a bottom 2 candidate pre-show, and top of our list would have to be Jade Ellis. We thought her singing was extremely flat last Saturday, and her styling wasn’t a vote winner either. If she is in as back up for Ella, Ella’s first live effort suggests show makers have nothing to fear, and we reckon the first voting figures will have her well clear.

So keep a close eye on Jade’s position in the running order, song choice, VT and judges’ comments tomorrow night. She could prove a play in the bottom 2 market but in terms of an elimination bet ahead of the show we still see value in a best price 5-1 Chris with SportingBet.

As for the Outright it is looking more and more like a one-horse race. To increase your Ella green it is probably better to take a laying approach with some of her rivals. One potential strategy for getting cheaper lays away is to see who has the pimp slot, wait post-performance for the presumed price crash, and lay away after that – much like Jahmene last week who went below 5 on Betfair.

If both of the boybands are sub-standard vocally tomorrow night we would also be eyeing up a back of MK1 for Top Group, while in the battle for Top Boy we remain firmly in the James Arthur camp and see value in Boylesports quote of 6-4.

In the Overs you should be in a great position if you followed our advice of dutching Melanie and Kye. We called this a 2-horse race when there were 4 in it. Maloney is a dead man walking and If Kye is anything like as drab as he was last Saturday, we would be looking to top up on Melanie for Top Over, or lay Kye at odds on.

We still think Melanie has gears if given the chance to showcase other types of song outside of the big belters she has been given to date, while we still have a massive question mark over Kye’s long-term credentials and all round votability.

We will return on Sunday, and try our best to come up with another ingenious money-winning strategy for readers. We didn’t even mention our advice to lay District 3 for bottom 2 last week…

Deactivating smug mode.
Rob Furber

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16 Comments

  1. Tim B

    I couldn’t agree more with the tips in this article, Rob. Phoney Maloney is indeed on Shaky ground. The press coverage of him this week has been very telling. To add to the analysis above, he’s due a massive comedown from the wildcard hype of last week. Unless he’s given the pimp slot (not likely at all) then I can’t see him avoiding the bottom 2. I think I probably have it in for him the most out of everybody in the entire country right now, having backed him to go at 11.0, 8.0 and for bottom 2 at a massive 5.0. I’ve also got him in some bottom 2 combos with incredible value – with MK1 and Jade both at 30.0(!), for example.

    There’s also an argument, however, to suggest that they might go after District 3 again seeing as they tried so hard to get rid of them last week. The groups are on borrowed time, and it wouldn’t surprise me whatsoever to see D3 or MK1 (regardless of a pimping) in the bottom 2 on Sunday. Jade is also a strong candidate, I agree. Unlike some I don’t see her as an Ella-spare. Perhaps the strong (and forced) endorsement from Leona in the results show was a sign she was in the danger zone.

    Regarding Rylan, I don’t think it’ll take producers much of an effort to get him safe. He was 2nd bottom in the votes (not bottom) and has amassed an enormous following on twitter since the contrived drama of last weekend. He’s also been popping up all over the media. He might need the pimp slot, though, and I am expecting to see him occupy it tomorrow night.

  2. zoomraker

    My concern with Melanie is that at some point the producers will be looking to ditch her to clear the way for Ella, so they may prefer to keep one of the weaker overs.

    I think the underlying dynamic that will drive this series is about clearing the way for Ella, each week we will see her some of her competition undermined and we could even see an MK1 v Ella final.

  3. Anonymous

    I am fairly new to tv betting… Rob, what do you mean by ‘deramping’?

    Lizzy

  4. Rob

    Looks like you have some fabulous value there, Tim – where did you unearth the 4-1 Chris to be bottom 2?

    Couldn’t agree more, Zoom, in the sense of clearing the way for Ella. I can see them building a Melanie narrative while only pushing her so far & even giving her a place in the final 3 (safe in the knowledge she will be a poor 3rd).

    This might actually be easier to control than bigging up Kye as he could then fly as that middle-of-the-road type that often goes close to winning.

    Can certainly see MK1 filling the finalist fodder role too – which is why they & Melanie have both appealed for a while now as best value outsiders.

    On the face of it, it looks very easy for them to dig a hole for every contestant bar Ella.

  5. Tim B

    Rob – it was available to back on Betfair briefly the other day. Only £8 though, but I snapped it up immediately.

  6. Rob

    Thanks for posting, Lizzy. Welcome to EntertainmentOdds 🙂
    This is a very good question: ‘deramping’ basically describes all the methods the show uses to dampen a contestant’s vote.

    Deramping might include a poor song choice, poor position in the running order, poor back stage VT & poor judges’ comments post-performance.

    TPTB (the powers that be) have many tricks up their sleeve and X Factor has become very astute at ramping and deramping.

    A deramp of Chris, for example, has so far encompassed Louis labelling him ‘cruiseship’ – that’s a damning, deramp of an X Factor judge’s word if ever we heard one.

    He was also branded a ‘diva’ on last week’s Xtra Factor show, & this was carried over into press coverage – which again can only be a negative for him = deramp.

    Keep a close eye on Chris’s position in the running, song choice, VT and judges’ comments, Lizzy. It’s crystal ball time right now, but we expect further Chris deramping based on what we have seen in the last week.

    A few clues here to Melanie’s ‘journey’ potential btw: http://www.unrealitytv.co.uk/x-factor/x-factor-2012-unreality-meets-melanie-masson-who-isnt-afraid-of-leaving-her-comfort-zone-saying-just-bring-it-on/#more-113164

  7. Lizzy

    Thanks Rob. That explains a lot.
    I didn’t realise you can bet on these shows. I’m taking your advice & backing Chris to go tomorrow. If he is not eliminated I will blame you!

  8. Bruce

    Actually a bit scary how alike we are in thinking this week Rob. I used the phrase dead man walking on a Betfair post about Christopher this week and have backed him bottom 2 and for elimination.
    Similarly I’m sure they can save Rylan by any number of methods and have laid him for bottom 2.
    I suspect they want rid of a band but I’m not wuite sure which one or how easy that will be. Having been singularly unimpressed with Jade last week I’m temped to try again with a bottom 2 back.

    Best of Luck

  9. fiveleaves

    Hi Rob,
    You make a good case for Christpher for elim and he looks reasonable value @ 5/1

    My other speculative bet this week is Kye for B2@10/1.
    I struggle to find any strong support for him anywhere.
    He’s just rather anonymous, with both older and younger viewers having more appealing acts to vote for.

  10. Henry VIII

    Maloney is bland and could easily be dumped.

    But does nobody think they could engineer a MishaBgate where Louis lays into him personally (fake nerves, cruiseship) and then Chris gets sympathy, and they get the publicity from a “scandal”?

  11. Bruce

    I agree with fiveleaves re Kye. I was coming round to the view that he didn’t poll particularly well last week and as I think he’s Gary’s favoured act they may have to give him pimp or close to pimp slot this week to ensure confortable progress.

    If he doesn’t then these odds will look generous and I will be very tempted.

  12. Rob

    Yep, can definitely see the Kye bottom 2 angle – I think ‘anonymous’ is the exact right word.

    Maybe like Bruce suggests, worth holding off until the start of the show and seeing the running order – guess there is a good chance Rylan will get the pimp slot but Kye could also be pimped towards the end. But has opening the phonelines from the start also changed things slightly in respect of the perceived later pimp slots?

    Henry – guess that’s possible but not sure they would want to instigate such a situation with Chris. Sense they would rather get rid asap, & with them presumably wanting Rylan to escape the b2, you would assume Chris is a clear candidate they will line up to fall below him. All will be revealed tomorrow night 🙂

  13. Boki

    Such a consensus regarding Chris doesn’t happen very often, I wonder why is he still so high. Nothing to add there, hopefully his Liverpool vote is not big enough and they will go after him. Also if Rylan is safe and Chris gone, they might need another over in bot2 again if they want to save Rylan next week, it’s a not an easy task for tptb.
    Rg Kye, maybe the songlist will give us a clue if he’s pimped or not. Don’t think they would like him to sink so fast though.

  14. Rob

    Hi Boki – notice that 5s is still available Chris next elim with this firm You Win. Think his price has partly held up cos he won the wildcard so there is a perception among many he is popular, & his popularity will last a while longer yet. But we saw with Amelia last year how quickly a vote can go into freefall.

  15. Boki

    Exactly, his wildcard win becomes a drawback in a week after. For the record I took him @9.0 and 8.0 long time ago wherever I could (some bookies don’t like me anymore).

  16. hemsby

    Excellent article as always Rob.

    Whilst I agree Shaky has a limited shelf life,I’ll go against opinion here and suggest he will be safe this week.Without a doubt the constant drip,drip of negativity is confirmation of TPTB desire to eject him sooner rather than later.I do feel however,that this is a process which will take a couple of weeks….death by a thousand cuts rather than a quick kill.He seems to have a small following who have been hoodwinked by the nerves scam,and that relatively small voting amount may be enough for a couple of weeks.
    Always difficult to predict running order/song choice etc but I’ve had a few quid on Jade to go @ 12/1,and am in agreement with HRH Five Leaves about Kye being a possible bottom 2.

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