Pimped To Death?

Nov 30, 2013 by

Pimped To Death?

In the preview, this week’s show was put on the ‘too difficult’ pile. It has barely budged from that position as this is written post-live show.

Nick again in trap 1. If he had an agent he would be spewing at his treatment in terms of running order this series – 2, 3, 4, 7, 3, 7, 1, 1. Nothing major to report here apart from the fact Sharon seems to be sozzled.

Red hot fav Sam B second up and this felt very karaoke with distracting dancers for good measure. Ha, ha. Nicole had to check her notes for the word ‘cruise ship’ and stumbled over it while trying to read it out. De-ramp alert.

Drum roll for Tamera. Can the hypnotherapist help? It’s do or die… She manages to get through the song and receives the plaudits of the judges for doing so.

Louis says he hates Luke’s song ‘Skinny Love’. Nice support from his own mentor there. Right, a big ramp for Luke from the judges so maybe they do see a window for getting Nick into the bottom 2 tonight. Louis asking viewers to vote for Luke when he didn’t afford Nick the same luxury.

No surprise that Luke was up 4th and Rough Copy landed the pimp slot money. Might prove the only easily findable winning value bet this weekend.

Just eyeing up the elimination price for Rough Copy as their medley is dated, vocally messy carnage. 11-2… going to jump on that. Louis’s comments surely a stark warning, pointing out how vocally poor they were. And again some arrogance which won’t have helped their public vote.

A game of 2 halves tonight. Nick struggled with the Take That song. He just about held it together well enough, and the judges endorsed him. If they are de-ramping Nick, they appear to be playing the long game.

‘Clown’ was much more Sam B in her comfort zone doing what she does best. Sam B powers clear on this week’s public vote, no doubt.

Luke moved to 3rd spot second time around. Don’t do a busker’s version says Louis. Glastonbury lite simply isn’t Saturday night-friendly, and it wasn’t vocally very good but the Luke ramp continued. They certainly don’t want him leaving this weekend.

This was undoubtedly Tamera’s most impressive, spell-binding live performance of the series. Whether it is enough to allow her to escape the bottom 2 though is far from certain.

I Believe I Can Fly was better than Rough Copy’s first effort but still pretty underwhelming especially when one of their singers missed his words completely. Gary asking people at home to vote but they still look highly likely to be in the bottom 2.

A Nick Rough Copy bottom 2 would not surprise. Would they be as flagrant to go on to save Rough Copy if against Nick? Nothing in X Factor land should ever surprise.

Luke could still be bottom 2, Tamera could be bottom 2. Only Sam B looks safe. Simply cannot call this. For those who took double figure prices for Nick to be eliminated this week, well done. Fantastic play, even if it doesn’t come off.

Gun to head: Tamera vs Rough Copy with Rough Copy being eliminated, but there is no value in the prices now.


  1. Guildo Horn Forever

    I’m on Nic to go at 20/1 but it feels like another great value bet that I feel is going to lose, as with the Ashley for 20/1 to get eliminated that was so close but, in reality, nowhere near.

    I seem to have stacked up too many of those damn bets where I know I have obtained excellent value but am unsurprised that they return nothing.

    I missed XF (and SCD) tonight but I notice you use the word ‘arrogance’ re Rough Copy. If that’s how they’ve come across tonight then, I agree, that they’re in big danger of a non-bounce.

    • Rob

      It’s often the way, Guildo, with taking the value approach, but it pays off in the long run.

      Abbey highest scorer was a classic example this week, as was Ash for b2.

      You might be on to a winner with your 20-1 Nick and you can lay off now at around 3.5 so it can at least me a ‘qualified’ winner for you.

      • Guildo Horn Forever

        I’ll keep the faith, Rob 🙂

        Had some huge priced near misses this year (on the tennis, golf etc) so could do with one stumbling over the winning line, to keep my spirits and my bank balance up!

        Thanks for the ‘lay’ info, but I’m not on betfair.

        On Luke, in general: I was close to taking a large price for him on the outright a month ago, but indefinitely paused as I think his singing is not even cruise ship standard.

        I use that pejorative description, that old XF deramp fave, yet it’s always intrigued me why ‘cruise ship’ is seen as shorthand for a a poor or cheesy singer. One of the best male vocalists I’ve heard (and know) sings on cruise ships. It seems a bizarre choice of stigma. I’d liken it to knocking a budding comedian for having worked in a comedy club.

        Must say that this year’s XF has had some rubbish contestants and a bonanza of ropy vocals.

        For sheer consistency, I think Sam Bailey deserves to win. (I backed her at series start and am hopeful of not adding her to my list of double-figure 2nds!).

  2. I backed Nick in-running and happy to have him onside. But given the state of the market now, everyone else is pretty much red. It’s Nick or nothing (for now)!

    I can’t see Luke in the bottom two, in fact I think he’s a serious challenger in the final if Tamera does indeed stumble across the line. Luke has found his niche and judging by his twitter traffic, he’s got the female vote sewn up. One boy in the final against two females doing similar things is dangerous.

    The show might still prefer a Sam win in order to give Luke artistic freedom, but the way Luke performed last night signaled a massive investment from the producers.

    In terms of the demographic watching the show during the SPOTY clash, I reckon it’ll suit Luke.

  3. zoomraker

    my take

    Nicolas – the war of attrition continues but this is not the week for the kill.

    Sam Bailey – they are happy to have her as a winner if they can’t get Tamera. Totally safe this week.

    Luke – Journeys end, bottom 2 and gone this week.

    Tamera – Still the producers desired winner but Judges don’t like her. Nicole the only one who’s fully on message. Remembered her words so no sympathy this week. Bottom 2.

    Rough Copy – very vulnerable but bounce, pimp slot, staging and vote begging should see them through by the skin of their teeth.

    • Boki

      Props to zoom for the Luke b2 call, didn’t see that coming.

    • Rob

      Excellent analysis, zoom. I thought Luke’s 2 songs were very unfriendly in terms of ITV Sat night audience so not entirely surprised to see him in the bottom 2.

      Luke vs Tamera was my initial read of this week but expected Luke to depart. I wasn’t sure watching the sing-off.

  4. Jay

    Wow, pick the bones out of that! Surely TPTB didn’t go to all that effort just to get Luke above Tamera in a deadlock?

    • Rob

      A very topsy-turvy, messy series, Jay. Jahmene gave me some sleepless nights last year heading to the final; I’m just glad to have an all-green book this year but pre-lives Outright bets seem to have become more of a lottery than ever before with XF, & so much down to the whims of TPTB.

      And a very nice win on Nicole first mentor to lose all acts. The weekly markets have been where the main profit lies in the last 2 series here, since finding Little Mix at huge odds to win back in 2011.

      Tim B was always hugely in favour of Sam B possibly winning so well played to him.

      Would love to see Nick make the final purely in a sense of overcoming the show’s dark arts, a bit like Maloney last year.

  5. zoomraker

    seems obvious now that the judges wouldn’t save tam over luke after all the praise they gave him last night.

    reckon they’ll do all they can to get nick b2 and out next week but they walk a fine line.

    any overt criticism or even just not enough praise will motivate the scotish vote. also think he has the granny vote.

    what will they do to get him, songs in the wrong key, make his vocal sound bad somehow with the mix, full zombie makeup?

    will any of it matter? he may be impossible to shift.

    • Boki

      I’m more curious if they will continue to ramp Luke to bounce at least above RC which are toast in that case.

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