Rachel a goner

Oct 30, 2009 by

And so, the momentum relentlessly builds behind the Grimes Twins, and their price in the outright market has tumbled to such an extent they are now as short as 12-1 in places.
For those who snapped up big prices on them – and if you listened to us you would have done – the question now is, when to lay off. We would sit tight for a while yet as we expect them to get even shorter.
All this ‘Cowell’s worst nightmare’ is a subtle smokescreen, of course. X Factor is delighted by the Grimes continued presence on the show, as it stirs up enormous coverage, adds further ratings, and generates even more phone votes which are probably now a combination of votes to spite Cowell, votes for the underdog, votes for the harshly persecuted, and votes for the most entertaining (all of which add up to the show being the only real winner).
Be aware that with vindictive editing, the Grimes train could potentially be derailed at any moment – hopefully not until their appearance in the final 3 for all those clinging onto each-way bets at huge odds – but ahead of this Saturday’s live show we’d say lay the Grimes again on the elimination and bottom 2 markets.
The main intrigue this week lies in who might next be sucked into the bottom 2. After Danyl’s ‘shock’ appearance there last Saturday, it’s highly likely the show will go all out to ensure he doesn’t appear in the bottom 2 for the second week running. We saw this with Rachel last week and the astonishing marketing job the show did, transforming her appearance and telling viewers how great she was.
The X Factor voting public is such a fickle creature Rachel remains highly likely to drop down into the bottom 2 again in our view. She isn’t the greatest value on the elimination market at 2-1 but it’s probably a bet worth making as we do not expect to see the weakest vocally – Lloyd and the Grimes – to be in the bottom two with her.
Probably the best value lies in betting on Rachel in bottom two combos with Lucie, Olly and Stacey.
We don’t think ‘rock’ week will play to Stacie’s strengths, while it’s debatable jut how big Lucie’s support is, and the same can be said about Olly.
Jamie will be in his element rocking out and it was promising for him that despite receiving a fair amount of criticism last week, he still managed to escape the bottom 2. And Jo and Lloyd should continue to garner a massive teen vote regardless of how they perform and what they sing.
As always though, a thorough analysis of the edit each contestant receives during the live show is imperative as the song choices and the opinions/staged antics of the X Factor ‘judges’ can change the polling figures dramatically.
Regardless of betting, our main hope is that John and Edward put on a show as memorable as last week.

Rob Furber

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xnB3AXOBaA0

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