Rhythmics An Elimination Layer’s Dream, Again
We hope you all followed our X Factor advice last week and laid Rhythmix on Betfair’s elimination market. They sang ‘I’m Like A Bird’ really well, and proceeded to get glowing praise from the judges, as we predicted.
They are going to have a good run in this series and we would highly recommend laying them again on this week’s ‘6th elimination’ market.
We previously advised them on the Outright market at 66-1 e/w and they are now trading at half those odds. We still see value in their current quote of 33-1 e/w with Paddy Power and SportingBet as we rate them as one of only about 4 contestants this year that can win. Despite having The Risk to beat, we also think there is value in their current quote of 15-2 with Boylesports to be Top Group.
As for this week’s elimination so many clues will be garnered by the running order on Saturday’s show. Given the Strictly overlap, whoever performs 1st and 2nd will likely be extremely vulnerable. So where can we expect to see the show producers aiming their grave diggers this week?
The most dispensable contestant left in has to be Sami Brookes but she was up early last Saturday, so is likely to have a later slot tomorrow night which could help her. Johnny Robinson’s camp cabaret act is fast losing its appeal and he is said to be singing ‘I Don’t Believe In A Thing Called Love’ by The Darkness. You sense he isn’t pulling in viewers the way Jedward and Wagner did, so we expect him to be leaving the competition sooner rather than later, and maybe even this weekend.
The controversy of the show now seems focused on Frankie after his poor effort last week, and stories of his nightclub antics. Of course, this sort of tabloid tittle tattle is a vital part of the show’s raison d’etre, so we expect to see Frankie lasting a good while in the show yet. This will be confirmed if he is given a late slot, lavish staging, produces anything remotely acceptable (singing ‘Primal Scream’s ‘Rocks’ apparently) and ends up receiving all those classic bounce back cliches from the panel along the lines of, ‘You just showed why you deserve to still be in this competition.’
So assuming this comes to pass, we would also advise laying Frankie on Betfair’s 6th elimination market.
Kitty is going to be playing the piano and is another ‘character’ you sense the show will want to keep around for longer. There is no doubting her talent either. She did get the pimp slot last Saturday so could be vulnerable to dropping into the bottom 2 if on early, given the panel has been keen to hammer home her status as the contestant viewers don’t like or don’t get.
So for us Sami, Johnny and Kitty appear to be the most obvious contestants this week to potentially fall into the bottom 2, and of those 3 only Kitty would appear safe from being kicked off the show. In fact, if Kitty does fall into the bottom 2, she is likely to prove a fabulous elimination lay.
The show has been doing poorly in the ratings so it is maybe due some controversy to get it back in the headlines this week. A high profile casualty could be the way they decide to play it and if so, it will be interesting to see if Marcus, Sophie, Craig or Misha are given a coffin box position in the running order.
If any of these 4 are on early, there could be some value in backing them to be in the bottom two. And if it’s either Craig or Marcus, there could be some value in backing them to be eliminated, especially if up against someone like Kitty who the panel could justifiably save given her undoubted vocal ability, also re-enforcing her status as the contestant viewers are supposed to hate.
Rob Furber