Right In The Mix Now
Interesting developments in X Factor with The Risk biting the dust on Saturday. This was great news for our followers as we have been recommending backing the band formerly known as Rhythmix, a.k.a. Little Mix going back to before the live shows had even commenced:
October 5th 2011:
At this very early stage, we’re keeping a close eye on Rhythmix. They seem a likable group of girls, rather sweet and naive, and you can see the judging panel building them up over early weeks… We are far less convinced by the credentials of the 2 boybands, Nu Vibe and The Risk. You get a feeling the world has had its fill of such boybands, even in X Factor land. Nothing about either of them is interesting or original. JLS didn’t win, the heavily pimped One Direction didn’t win, and we’re finding it hard to see either of these 2 bands making the latter stages. Girlbands are historically vulnerable in the early weeks and struggle to get a vote but we’d argue the show has never had 2 girlbands in the mould of Rhythmix or 2 Shoes before, and one of these could capture the public’s imagination.
October 12th, 2011:
With 2 Shoes biting the dust, this paves the way clear for Rhythmix, who were given a huge seal of approval by the judges on Saturday which suggests to us, they are going to push them as much as they can and hope they catch fire with the public.
We certainly wouldn’t put you off taking the 66-1 e/w with Coral on the Outright, having already advised Rhythmix at 7-1 to be Top Group.
October 21st, 2011:
We hope you all followed our X Factor advice last week and laid Rhythmix on Betfair’s elimination market. They sang ‘I’m Like A Bird’ really well, and proceeded to get glowing praise from the judges, as we predicted.
They are going to have a good run in this series and we would highly recommend laying them again on this week’s ’6th elimination’ market.
We previously advised them on the Outright market at 66-1 e/w and they are now trading at half those odds. We still see value in their current quote of 33-1 e/w with Paddy Power and SportingBet as we rate them as one of only about 4 contestants this year that can win. Despite having The Risk to beat, we also think there is value in their current quote of 15-2 with Boylesports to be Top Group.
With Little Mix now trading around the 5-4 mark on Betfair to finish in the top 3, there is a nice opportunity to lock in some profits. That said, with The Risk out of the way and in light of the great VT and pimp slot they received on Saturday, it looks to us like the girls are going to be given the very best opportunity possible to make the final. And looking at the weakness of this year’s field, a top 3 finish looks very much within their compass.
Johnny Robinson being eliminated was a further bonus for those who took our advice to back Kitty to win the Overs category, originally flagged up at 3-1. Despite 7 acts remaining, it looks like only 5 acts remain in contention, with both Kitty and Frankie’s time on the show looking numbered.
Another telling element of Saturday’s show was the enormous seal of approval Marcus received for his somewhat cheesy rendition of Reet Petite. We were expecting lukewarm comments at best, and it was a song choice and routine ripe for pillorying, we felt certain. How wrong we were as the judges raved about it. Was this a clear indication Marcus is already considered finalist material? We think so.
You might imagine they would prefer a final consisting of one boy, one girl and one group. We still firmly believe Misha will struggle to get enough of a public vote to make the final and if she does make it, it will require the judges putting her through at some point again, as she looks virtually guaranteed to land in the bottom 2 in the coming weeks. Possibly more than once.
Janet, meanwhile, had another tough week, forgetting her words at one point. She hasn’t been given any preferential treatment yet in the running order. But we think she probably has the strongest core vote of any of the remaining contestants because this year’s series has encouraged viewers to form a strong emotional attachment with her going back to her first audition. Her fragility and vulnerability help make this a strong bond, and her chat with Dermot on Saturday re-inforced the impression she cares deeply about her performances and speaks from the heart, which only endears her more. So we think Janet is still the most likely girl to make the final 3.
As for this Saturday, we wouldn’t be surprised to see Frankie escape the bottom 2 again. He has turned into this year’s antihero, and remaining so humble and confessing to his inferiority works in his favour and has given him a very healthy fan base.
Despie excellent comments again last Saturday, we still think Craig is an early slot in the running order, and an average rendition/comments away from being strong bottom 2 and elimination material. Of course, that can be said about a number of this year’s contestants, but we cannot see Craig being given more preferential treatment from this point, especially not compared to Marcus. Unless there is a cunning plot afoot to try to get them both to the final to ensure they split the regional vote, and thus tee up another contestant to beat both of them.
It’s always dangerous to bet on X Factor pre-show but we certainly see value in Craig‘s quote of 5-1 to be in the Bottom 2 with bluesq, the widely-available 20-1 to be the next elimination, and to be the next boy eliminated at 9-2 with b365.
Rob Furber