Shelley to Survive the Value Call

Oct 13, 2013 by

Shelley to Survive the Value Call

So the simple question is: will Shelley be saved by the judges? Or more pertinently, what are the correct odds Shelley will be saved?

At first glance, it looks like she is up against it – she would appear to have to win the judges’ vote 3-1. But something to factor in here is, if Shelley ends up in the bottom 2 with Lorna, Sharon is likely to abstain from voting. In that scenario, Shelley would only need a 2-1 verdict to go her way.

For XF to fulfil its traditional obligation of sing-off drama, you also have to think it will contrive the decision to hinge on the last judge’s vote no matter what. Presumably Gary’s if it does end up Shelley vs Lorna. ‘1-1, Gary, it’s up to you. We need a decision. Who are you sending home?’

Along with Lorna, Miss Dynamix look firmly in the mix to land bottom of the vote tonight. If it becomes Miss D vs Shelley in the sing-off, you would expect them to dump Miss D. A scenario where it’ll most likely go 2 saves to 1 in Shelley’s favour (Gary obviously saving Miss D) before going to the last judge, so again they can maintain the jeopardy of the last judge’s decision, with the last judge going on to save Shelley.

TPTB gave the girls a poor draw in trap 3, and Nicole played her traditional role, leading the way with a negative critique and planting poison in the minds’ of voters. It seems unlikely the producers will let them off the hook if they do end up in the bottom 2. It will be interesting to see if they attempt to ramp, say, Lorna, tonight if the voting hints it is close between Lorna and Miss Dynamix as to who will join Shelley in the sing-off.

There is a chance another contestant could land bottom 2, of course, but it seems unlikely. Luke or maybe even Hannah who put in a pretty forgettable and lacklustre effort from trap 1, and was given unflattering styling.

Strictly has been beating X Factor in the ratings and both Hannah and Nicholas’s performances likely passed many a viewer by as they would have remained on BBC1 watching to the end of the dancing show. It looked a blatant early de-ramp tactic for the 2 contestants originally considered Tamera’s biggest rivals for this year’s crown.

Having earlier advised Miss D at 8-1 to be eliminated in a dutch worth 7-2, the value now looks to be to back Lorna for elimination at 5-1 with William Hill and, if you wish to play it completely safe, Lorna to be Saved by the Judges at 4-1 with Skybet. Shelley vs Lorna looks like it could go either way so you would have to be happy with a 5-1 voucher on Lorna leaving the show, and 4-1 Shelley exiting if this situation arises.

As for the rest of the show Rough Copy got the mother of all pimps and it really didn’t wash, largely due to the fact they were off-key in parts. They have become a very tempting lay price on Betfair at 6.2 at time of writing.

Trouble with laying Rough Copy is, it is easy to see them hanging around until the final if TPTB insist on being relentless with their pimping of them. The same could be said for Sam Bailey, available to lay around 7.2 at time of writing. Not surprisingly they bigged her up and did their best to make her look more presentable. A winner of X Factor though? It’s hard to see because as stated before, she has such clear limitations as a marketable act.

Tamera put in a decent first effort as did Nicholas as did Kingsland Road to be fair. Luke, Sam C and Abi were a lot more vocally exposed but the merits of vocals are largely irrelevant in X Factor land when the judges are reading from a pre-planned script, and are merely seeking to persuade the public to go along with what they are telling them.

The value on the Outright now is arguably Hannah who has drifted out to 12 on Betfair and can be backed on the high street at 11-1 e/w, but given the treatment she was afforded in the first live show, her supporters have to be feeling a little pessimistic regarding her long-term chances.


  1. Hi rob i agree everything was there to suggest miss dynamix are wanted out
    From being sandwiched between 3 hype acts to the luke warm comments if they are bottom 2 tonight i think they will go.
    Good point about sharon staying out of the vote if it vs lorna im not quite as confident on this match up but would lean on lorna going,
    Really hope its not a surprise in the bottom 2 though as i dont think shelley would survive against anyone else. Shelley will sing one night only as her survival song for anyone who missed that

  2. Rob

    Thanks Geoff. I really couldn’t call it if it comes down to Shelley vs Lorna, but at the available odds (as the odds were when I wrote the above article), the bet was Lorna to get the bullet at 5-1, & a saver on her at 4-1 being called safe.

    Lorna or Miss D for b2 is going to be pretty tight, but unless they come up with a sneaky ramp for Lorna tonight, my intuition says it’ll be Lorna joining Shelley in the sing-off.

    Of course, if you took the 8-1 Miss D to be eliminated (as advised) or got any of the 3-1 for them to be b2, or 9-2 Miss D to be saved by the judges (as advised) then you have the chance to now lay Miss D to be b2 on BF around 2.7.

  3. Im on both lorna and miss dynamix at the before show prices.
    Ive just topped up even more on miss dynamix elimination
    And also took a bit of lorna to be saved like u said just to make sure .
    Even had a sly tenner on kingsland to be saved.
    Hoping it doesnt come to that though as have big greens on md and lorna

  4. Danzaa

    Just want to say congrats on your predictions, even down to Mrs O abstaining, it was like they were reading from your script – top work.

    • Rob

      Thanks Dan. Yep, a good start to the XF series. That worked out pretty much as expected. Hope you managed some 5-1 Lorna or got stuck in to laying Shelley for 1st elim on BF 🙂

      • Danzaa

        I’d backed Lorna to go at AP prices sadly and hadn’t backed Shelley so was forced to sit tight and not risk losing any more money should Lorna not fall B2 or be eliminated. The 5/1 available wss utterly, utterly insane though, sadly I was b*lls deep already. I walked away £380 better off in the end.

        Hopefully another opportunity will come along soon.

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