Stereo Tricks?

Nov 15, 2014 by

Stereo Tricks?

Back to a 15-minute crossover between the shows this week. The Syco sniper has been deadly this series and as always it’ll be vital to see who is on early in X Factor. Steph went from trap 2 in week 2 after being bottom of the public vote; in week 3 traps 1 and 2 were bottom 2 with trap 1 (Jake) departing; in week 4 Lola was in trap 2 and was the second elimination that weekend, bottom on the public vote on the Sunday and going on deadlock; and last week, again traps 1 and 2 were the bottom 2 with trap 1 (Paul) bottom of the pv and eliminated on deadlock.

In terms of song choices, ‘Smile’ is potentially a rather forgettable, bland tune for Lauren. We have had Brian complaining about Lauren’s unwillingness to dance and her last few song choices haven’t hit the mark compared to the superb ‘Happy’ in week 1.

Empire State Of Mind would appear far too big for Jay but the bounce factor may come to his rescue. ‘Summertime’ sung by Andrea sounds an appalling prospect. Will we see the same sort of eulogizing as last week or more of a de-ramp? The latter seems more likely, imagining him going through the full gamut of grimaces and vocal trickery.

Fleur is re-visiting Bang Bang and this could be teed up for a pimp slot. It’s a modern hit but is it voter-friendly? There has to be an argument Fleur might miss the target here, whereas OTY, Ben and Stevi look to have MOR choices that could play well to their respective audiences.

This late Stereo Kicks song change looks like a sly Syco tactic to possibly hype them for a great job at short notice. If it’s not a clever ramp, and they struggle with it, 7-2 for elimination will look big. It could go many different ways this week and is difficult to call pre-show without knowing the running order.

It was week 7 in 2012 when Ella and James landed bottom 2. It is easy to imagine this weekend, week 6, could see a similar shock bottom 2 if Syco want to instigate it. Certainly at the odds, Lauren looks too big to miss out on at 50-1 to be eliminated. If she ended up against Stereo Kicks in the bottom 2, would they have the temerity to ditch her? Quite possibly.

Strictly’s in Blackpool this evening which usually sees a feel-good show and plenty of score inflation. This was one reason why Judy looked over-priced earlier in the week to score 22pts or more. Sunetra has the very difficult samba and looks value to be lowest scorer (without Judy).

Steve looks the only candidate who might score lower than Sunetra but you would have to expect an American Smooth involving lifts will be executed well enough by him and score higher than Sunetra’s samba which hasn’t looked the best in training.

Andy Murray got obliterated by Federer on Thursday night and Judy may well end up last on the leaderboard and looking in danger of elimination tonight. But a VW to ‘Let’s Go Fly A Kite’ which apparently will see Judy take to the air at some point should see her and Anton’s fans come to their rescue again.

In terms of highest score, as always, it’s about trying to second guess who will get the pimp slot. Simon hasn’t had the pimp since week 1 and has mostly been blighted with early slots. He is certainly due, as is Jake, who hasn’t had a pimp slot series-long and his narrative is perhaps due a bounce back to form and higher scores this week dancing the American Smooth.

After Caroline’s surprise bottom 2 appearance last week, she is likely to receive generous scoring this week and has a jive that could be the perfect show-closer. These look the 3 to focus on in terms of value.

Keep an eye on Comments below for further X Factor analysis following tonight’s show.

Recommendations:

X Factor –

Lauren – next elimination – 50-1 – 1pt win – Paddy Power

First to lose all acts – Cheryl – 4-1 – 4pt win – Betfred

Strictly –

Sunetra – next elimination – 100-30 – 4pt win – Boylesports

Sunetra – lowest scorer (without Judy) – 11-8 – 4pt win – Coral

Caroline – highest score – 7-2 – 2pt win – Coral

Jake – highest score – 9-2 – 1pt e/w – Coral

Simon – highest score – 14-1 – 0.5pt e/w – Coral

13 Comments

  1. Rob

    Simon dancing 4th, Kristina has Tweeted:

    Looking forward to the @bbcstrictly tonight ! Such an honour to perform here with @simonwebbe1! We r dancing 4th! Tune in a 7pm on @BBCOne

  2. M8

    Back in business with a bang on SCD tonight Rob well done!! Sunetra lowest scorer, Judy over 22 points and Simon top scorer all winners. I couldn’t go for Judy over 22 points as Ladbrokes don’t like my account 🙁 Still a great night, hopefully Sunetra leaves later to cap things off.

  3. Rob

    Thanks M8. Think Judy will be called safe again. Only 1pt between Sunetra and Steve, & given media stuff they may come up with some b.s. – ‘you improved in the dance-off Sunetra etc’ – if it’s Steve vs Sunetra, so makes sense to cover on Steve.

    Recommended:

    Steve – to be eliminated – 2pt win – 6-1 – Coral

    • Frank

      Well done Rob, some nice bets landed tonight. Fingers crossed Sunetra leaves too.

  4. Rob

    Sunetra vs Judy – Judy gone. They finally got her by praising her & giving her her highest score. Still, a good week’s trading overall & Judy to thank for one of best bets of the series so far.

  5. M8

    Never mind, would have been cruel on the bookies if Sunetra left. I think we’ve punished them enough with those other wins. A couple of other points about tonight:

    I don’t think Caroline can win and she may even miss out on the final. To get only one 10 in Blackpool from Bruno is poor.

    Frankie is continuing to get the Abbey Clancy edit with Craig being mean to her. I wish I could like her pro more, he proper rubs me up the wrong way and comes across so OTT and desperate. (I used to really like Artem and he’s trying so hard to step into his shoes as the alpha mail of the pros.) He nearly messed up knocking the microphone off the stand at the beginning. He needs to be careful he doesn’t blow it for her. She’s still the favourite IMO

    Pixie is getting the Natalie edit and is finally showing why she is the best dancer by far as she should be. Certain for the final but will she get the votes to win? I’m not convinced

    If Mark gets to the final, he could certainly win. He is on the biggest journey of the series for me. He’ll need the votes though as he’s simply not good enough to win a dance off against one of the girls.

    I’m gonna predict the finishing order from now as the finals are visible to me right now.

    8. Steve
    7. Sunetra
    6. Jake (If Jake isn’t in the dance off then that week we could see a real shock bottom 2)
    5. Caroline/Simon (Providing Jake goes, I could see this being the semi final dance off)
    4. The winner of the Caroline Simon dance off finishes 4th in the final.
    3-2. Pixie I’m confident she’ll finish a runner up.
    1. Frankie/Mark

    Mark and Jake could swap places in that list. If Jake somehow gets to the final 3, I think he’ll win with that Salsa being performed again. I think these 2 are the most similar contenders in the case that both would get knocked out in a dance off against the girls or Simon. Jake not being in the dance off last week when he was dire proves that he does have a fanbase voting for him.

    • Rob

      Thanks for your thoughts, M8. Tend to agree with your analysis. Assuming they pick off Sunetra and Steve in the next 2 weeks, who goes at the last 6 stage will largely hinge on dance choice.

      My worry for Mark would be – they could yet lumber him with the rumba. Simon and Jake, at least, have got this horrible dance out of the way.

      The cunning way TPTB operate now, would come as no surprise to see Steve given the rumba in the next 2 weeks.

  6. Rob

    It’s hard to see any outstanding value plays that jump out ahead of tonight’s elimination.

    Lauren did look over-priced at 50-1 for elimination which is why this was flagged up pre-show. She is generally 25-1 now and a best price 9-2 to be bottom 2. Could she be eliminated over Stevi or Stereo Kicks?

    Her performance from the slot 2 could well have passed a lot of voters by & she does look vulnerable. But you’d have to think Jay, Stevi and Stereo Kicks are equally vulnerable, if not more so.

    It’s a disappointing state of affairs generally with the XF markets now. Last year, you could get money down for bottom 2 before the lives but outside of Bwin (who will restrict you very quickly) these prices have not been forthcoming.

    Liquidity is also well down in the bottom 2 & bottom 2 combo markets on BF not helped by their decision to refuse to open these markets until show start.

    Jay could bounce; it’s difficult to get a handle on the depths of Stevi’s support but these 2 plus Lauren & Stereo Kicks look to be the 4 to focus on.

    No real desire to get too heavily involved this week.

    Recommendations:

    Lauren & Jay – bottom 2 combo – 8-1 – 1pt win
    Lauren & Stevi – bottom 2 combo – 9-1 – 1pt win
    Lauren & SK – bottom 2 combo – 12-1 – 1pt win

  7. Rob

    That has to go down as one of the all-time great trades in XF sing-off history. Felt pretty confident they would contrive to send Jay home.

    Managed to lay a fair bit of 1.05 Stevi on BF. Hope others did also. A great weekend of trading – back to form, at long last 🙂

  8. Rob

    The dances we know so far this week:

    Pixie & Trent –
    Frankie & Kevin –
    Simon & Kristina –
    Mark & Karen – Tango
    Caroline & Pasha – American Smooth
    Steve & Ola – Jive
    Sunetra & Brendan – Waltz
    Jake & Janette – Samba

    Sunetra has a great chance of bouncing with a waltz. Steve has the difficult jive.

    Early recommendation:

    Steve – next elimination – 4pt win – 5-2 – Ladbrokes

  9. Rob

    This weeks’ dances and songs:

    Caroline and Pasha will be dancing the American Smooth Robbie Williams’ version of ‘Mack the Knife’.

    Frankie and Kevin will perform the Viennese Waltz to Tom Jones’ ‘What’s new Pussycat?’.

    Jake and Janette will Samba to the ‘Macarena’ by Los Del Rio.

    Mark and Karen will Tango to OneRepublic’s ‘Love Runs Out’.

    Pixie and Trent are going to Charleston to ‘Sparkling Diamonds’ as sung by Nicole Kidman in the film ‘Moulin Rouge’.

    Simon and Kristina will Salsa to ‘Let’s Hear It For The Boy’ by Deniece Williams.

    Steve and Ola are Jiving to Frankie Lymon and The Teenagers version of ‘Little Bitty Pretty One’.

    Sunetra and Brendan will be Waltzing to Paolo Nutini’s ‘Last Request’.

  10. Rob

    Andrea Faustini – I Have Nothing

    Lauren Platt – How Will I Know?

    Only The Young – Something About The Way You Look Tonight

    Stereo Kicks – Don’t Let The Sun Go Down On Me

    Ben Haenow – I Will Always Love You

    Fleur East – I’m Every Woman

    Stevi Ritchie – I’m Still Standing

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