Stevi & Steve To Leave

Nov 21, 2014 by

Stevi & Steve To Leave

Another 15-minute clash between Strictly and X Factor this week, and a double elimination on X Factor which could put a cat among the pigeons.

While Stevi looks a solid favourite for last place, the big question is who Syco might have in its sights for Sunday’s sing-off. Looking at the song choices both OTY and Lauren have been afforded the luxury of their highly successful audition songs. That doesn’t suggest they are the main targets.

Lauren got the boring tag from Cowell last week, and the narrative could easily be there for him to say he was wrong, and go on to eulogize her. She is also due a pimp slot.

The song that looks more likely teed up for a fail is Ben singing ‘I Will Always Love You’ and he hardly received a ringing endorsement from the judges last week. Fleur’s ‘I’m Every Woman’ doesn’t convince entirely, and nor does SK’s song. Andrea, too, could easily be on the receiving end of a de-ramp singing ‘I Have Nothing’ given it is guaranteed to be the same old, same old over-wrought effort from him. It definitely has the makings of a 6 donuts song.

Syco may even be actively seeking a shock bottom 2 on Sunday night, as this series is long over-due one. Any 2 from 3 out of Ben, Fleur and Andrea would certainly fulfil this aim, and give the mentors the chance to more easily vote Andrea off the show, if that’s in the script.

After studying last week’s voting figures, which might have been disappointing for Fleur given her mega-ramp, who knows, they might even have concluded a sing-off save for her might be just the ticket to give her that James Arthur-style impetus bouncing into the final. And what better way to save her than against Andrea or Ben?

With Cowell back, Syco has been managing the eliminations expertly this series, and this double elimination certainly suggests they have a clear target in their sights. It really could go many different ways, but both Andrea and Ben certainly look vulnerable and on price alone are worth speculative wagers to be heading for the exit come Sunday evening.

As for Strictly, things are looking tough for Steve this week dancing the jive. 5-2 for him to be next eliminated was advised earlier this week; he is now a best-priced 13-8. Sunetra, dancing a waltz, could be on for a decent bounce, and if she avoids the bottom 2 it will be one of the series’ big hitters who will get dragged down.

Simon (twice), Mark and Caroline have all been in the dance-off. Of those 3, Mark could be most vulnerable dancing the tango. Simon was described here as a ‘dead man walking’ not that long ago, but he has resurrected his chances with brilliant routines in the last 2 weeks.

Looking at training footage, he looks set for another triumphant week dancing the salsa. Jake is doing a samba which has a lot to live up to after his salsa earlier in the series. Jake hasn’t had a pimp slot series-long, while Simon has only had one pimp slot back in week 1. It looks an odds-on shot one of Jake or Simon will get the pimp tomorrow night.

Simon has looked more impressive in training and is a bigger price to be highest scorer, but it would be wise to split highest scorer stakes across these 2. Looking further ahead, Simon looks over-priced for a top 3 finish at 6-1 with Paddy Power as he could prove a very hard man to beat if he does fall into the bottom 2 again, and these last few weeks may have helped turn voters around.

The jury is a little bit out on Jake, especially regarding his ballroom skills, while Mark could yet be lumbered with the rumba in the critical weeks to come. Much like X Factor, however, Strictly looks extremely open and very difficult to call on the Outright at this stage.

Follow up advice will appear in Comments tomorrow for Strictly, and on Sunday for X Factor.

Recommendations:

X Factor – Ben – to be eliminated this weekend – 10-1 – 1pt win – bwin

Andrea – to be eliminated – 6-1 – 1pt win – bwin

Strictly – Jake – highest score – 3-1 – 3pt win – Coral/William Hill

Simon – highest score – 13-2 – 2pt e/w – Coral

Simon – top 3 finish – 6-1 – 2pt win – Paddy Power

 

10 Comments

  1. hemsby

    Thanks for the article Rob.

    I feel it’s a big weekend for Jake.In theory,the samba should suit him perfectly,and with a fun routine planned to a party track,it really does look all set up for his first pimp slot.I’ve backed him to top score,and followed your advice by having a saver on Simon.

    Like yourself,I also nabbed the 5/2 Steve to be eliminated earlier in the week which looked a real price error,and I’ve also backed Steve for lowest score at 11/10.

    Tricky weekend in XF with the Double Elimination being used.Song choices don’t make intentions much clearer to me.I don’t think I’ll be getting involved until I’ve seen the RO.

    Good Luck….here’s hoping for a successful weekend.

    • Rob

      I agree hems. He is going to have to do a great job with his samba. I think he will but he may still be eclipsed by Simon. It will come down to who gets the pimp.

      Strictly seems to be throwing up better value on the weekly markets this year. XF offering very little value angle.

  2. Rob

    Going to add Simon to be Top Male to the portfolio because he really does look over-priced atm.

    Recommendation:

    Simon – Top Male – 2pt win – 6-1 – Stan James

  3. Rob

    Steve vs Sunetra bottom 2 – Steve gone. A good night at the Strictly office with Jake joint-highest scorer too.

  4. Rob

    It’s very hard to see Stevi escaping the bottom 2 tonight & despite the machinations of Syco, equally difficult to imagine Stevi being saved over anyone.

    Who might join Stevi in the bottom 2 – it could feasibly be any of the others, but Fleur looks the safest.

    If Lauren is bottom 2 & is saved, it will certainly make things intriguing looking forward. The treatment received by both Ben and Andrea suggests neither are desired winners this year.

    It could be a case of slowly but surely dismantling both Andrea and Ben’s vote while aiming to strengthen Fleur’s.

    Fleur and SK look like highly desirable finalists for TPTB. After that, it’s a lot less clear. But always seeking the value here, Mel B looks over-priced to be the first mentor to lose all acts.

    Recommendation:

    Mel B – first mentor to lose all acts – 2pt win – 8-1 – Ladbrokes

  5. M8

    Well done on Steve Rob. Fairly obvious conclusion and I’ll be shocked if Sunetra doesn’t go next week. What will be interesting is who lands in the dance off with her. I’m hoping it’s not Mark for selfish reasons. If not him I expect it to be Simon or Caroline.

    DWTS 2 day finale tomorrow so slightly nervous about that. Had a nice football win earlier so I’ve bitten the bullet and covered Alfonso for Money Back should he win (he’s still favourite). Sadie is my big winner with Bethany a very good profit. I’ll get all my money back if Alfonso wins and Janel is the big red. A long couple of nights ahead with the 1am starts Monday and Tuesday night haha.

    • Rob

      All part of the fun of tv market trading M8 🙂 I am very familiar with staying up into the early hours while overseas watching the live stream & trading in-running.

      I have had a cover on Alfonso too. Sadie & Bethany were excellent value picks whatever the outcome. Will Alfonso reprise his Carlton Dance? I guess he probably will…?

  6. M8

    It doesn’t look like it Rob. The judges pick for was his week 1 Jive (he got four 9s) so that’ll probably be 10s and his freestyle is sing sing sing with a swing by Benny Goodman so no Carlton I assume (he actually got injured doing it in week 4). Sadie and Mark freestyle will be do to the Super Mario bros theme which I’m looking forward to.

    It’ll be a shame if Alfonso wins simply due to the excellent value the bookies in the UK have been giving for Bethany and Sadie throughout the weeks. But credit where it’s due, he’s probably the best dancer, he appeals to most of the general US audience even if he doesn’t have the online fanbase the two girls have and I think unfortunately that’ll be why he’ll win if his freestyle has that showstopping effect in the final.

  7. Rob

    I see Alfonso won Dancing With The Stars and Sadie came 2nd, so a wise cover M8 🙂

    This week’s dances and songs:

    Caroline and Pasha will be performing the Charleston to They Might Be Giant’s version of ‘Istanbul’. (TURKEY)
    Frankie and Kevin will be performing the Jive to ‘Surfin’ USA’ by The Beach Boys. (USA)
    Jake and Janette will be performing the Argentine Tango to ‘Zorba The Greek’. (GREECE)
    Mark and Karen will be performing the Salsa to ‘Viva Las Vegas’ by Elvis Presley. (USA)
    Pixie and Trent will be performing the Viennese Waltz to ‘Tulips From Amsterdam’ by Max Bygraves. (NETHERLANDS)
    Simon and Kristina will be performing the Waltz to ‘Edelweiss’ from The Sound of Music. (AUSTRIA)
    Sunetra and Brendan will be performing the Rumba to Michael Bolton’s version of ‘Girl From Ipanema’. (BRAZIL)

  8. M8

    He did indeed Rob. Inside rumours on a DWTS forum is that there was only 0.1% in the vote as well which will have seperated the 2 by a few hundred votes. But Alfonso was the best and deserved it. Just a shame William Hill didn’t get the punishment they deserved for those odds on Sadie. If they did EW bets we’d have been big winners.

    I see a market has been offered for 1st 40 of the season. Seeing Frankie do the Jive (Kevin’s favourite dance) is tempting me heavily to invest in her. Jake and Janette have a very overscored dance as well in AT so might have a little go on them highest score. I hate betting against Pixie though, especially with a ballroom dance.

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